Soviet Europe in 1945. What happens to Spain?

Count

Count

In the unlikely event that the Soviets manage to push all the way to the Atlantic what would happen to Spain? They were a reactionary power with prominent fascists in their administration, which had supported the Axis and sent troops against the Soviets as ‘volunteers’. On the other hand the Allies would likely be horrified by the scale of the Soviet victory and may consider a further conquest liberation a step too far.
What might Stalin do? While a clever politician he was also devoted to the spread of Soviet influence and may gamble that by say 1949, no one would enter a war for the sake of a brutal autocracy like Spain, which was not only a dictatorship but an autarkic one, with no commercial benefit from maintaining it as a free power.
It is also highly probable that Franco would react to the threat on his borders by ramping up his military and stepping up purges of dissidents and that this brutality may further discourage Allied intervention.
For the purpose of having a scenario let’s say that D-Day is crushed while the Italian offensive either grinds down into even more of a grinding war of attrition than Otl, or is thwarted altogether in 1943. I think it goes without saying that if Stalin eyes it and the Allies don’t intervene or issue more than a guarentee of Portugal that Spain is utterly doomed. The dictatorship was unpopular with a large segment of society, including the populations immediately adjacent to the border (Catalonia and the Basques). It’s economy was in a shambles, from it’s backward state for the last century to the recent Civil War burning most of it down to the foolish policy of Autarky.
 

Prince di Corsica

Yeah, the Allies would have to defend it, or lose the Strait of Gibraltar. That's a very important geopolitical spot, there's no way it would have been given up without a fight.

No matter what Britain and the US may have thought of Franco, his threat level was nothing like that of Stalin.
 

Phradmon

Well:
1. Wrong topic, you should have posted in the post 1900 sub forum
2. The easiest way to assure this quasi-,,Peter the great will,, you'll have to assure the republican's victory in the spanish civil war . In order for ,,socialism to liberate Europe,, , as any real commie would say, you will need besides a helping hand from the italian and french partisans, a helpful spanish goverment too
 
Count

Count

Alexander the Average said:
Honestly, if the Soviets had pushed that far they might as well keep going. Probably take Portugal too while they're at it.
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Portugal would definitely push them into open war with the United Nations, considering the Treaty of Windsor, Portugal’s resources and position in that scenario as the last bastion on the continent of capitalism except maybe South Italy, and the fact that they had favoured the Allies with Salazar actually considering joining the war.
 

Alexander the Average

Count said:
Portugal would definitely push them into open war with the United Nations, considering the Treaty of Windsor, Portugal’s resources and position in that scenario as the last bastion on the continent of capitalism except maybe South Italy, and the fact that they had favoured the Allies with Salazar actually considering joining the war.
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True, but if the Soviets have gotten as far as France there isn't much the allies can do about it.
 

Orcot

Count said:
Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe they have the range to target Moscow, through they could use it to destroy an army or fortification to force a landing.
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Is finland occupied in this scenario?
 

Nivek

Count said:
Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe they have the range to target Moscow, through they could use it to destroy an army or fortification to force a landing.
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Direct range no it seems, even with finland as SU still have some token airforce to try and stop the attack, but as you say, that can stop the soviet army easily and Unthinkable just happen...now nuclear powered
 

Orcot

So saint petersburg and Moscow could be nuked
Does the soviet Union still has a airforce when they are invading france? I imagen england(churchill) would attack them in the sky. No? I doubt their would be anything left at saint petersburg, the supply lines would also start to become thin at this point. Could tanks in those days cross the pyrenees that are some steep climbs
 

stevej713

The question is largely academic as D-Day can't really fail. The Germans weren't able to contain the Allied landings for very long, simply because the Allies had complete aerial and naval superiority and the situation on the Eastern Front was rapidly worsening. A failed landing in '42 or '43 simply means a renewed effort in '44, with similar OTL results. Ironically, in order to create an environment in which the Wehrmacht is in a stronger position to stop an Allied landing, you'd need to create a miraculously successful Barbarossa or prevent Barbarossa altogether, which basically eliminates this scenario.

However, I'll give it the benefit of the doubt and imagine that the Allies suffer a collective brain hemorrhage and somehow completely bungle an invasion in '44. First off, this buys Germany some time in the east. While Bagration is not halted, the Soviets would face much stronger resistance in Poland and Hungary. This could push the Battle of Berlin back a few months, giving the Western Allies time to prepare another invasion. Also, with the Western Allies not in Germany, the Wehrmacht has little reason to surrender and may likely continue the fight in some capacity. Not for very long of course, but long enough to enable the Western Allies to advance.

In no scenario would the United States ever abandon Europe to Soviet domination. Furthermore, Stalin himself had no interest in taking Western Europe. There are many reasons for this, including fear of Western air power and simple realism that the Soviet Union needed to end the war and focus on rebuilding their shattered economy and infrastructure. There was also considerable fear among the Politburo and Stavka at the time that if the Soviets didn't play their cards right, the treacherous Western Allies would simply join up with the Wehrmacht and the war would continue. Indeed, the Wehrmacht was desperate to reach an accord with the Western Allies and would hold out as long as they could if it gave them a chance to surrender to the Americans instead of the Soviets.

Moreover, one has to remember that the Red Army's logistics were stretched to their breaking point shortly after the beginning of every major offensive on the Eastern Front. For instance, the advance into Romania (which was an optimal case as the Red Army moved through the country virtually unopposed) bogged down quickly, allowing the Axis time to shore up its defenses on the Danube. This would become worse and worse the further west the Soviets advanced. Even if they wanted to, there is no way the Soviets could outrace the Western Allies to the Pyrenees.

If this extremely unlikely scenario took place, the best the Soviets could possibly do would be similar to Austria - the Red Army occupies portions of the Netherlands, Belgium, and maybe eastern France, stays for a few years, and then withdraws in exchange for Benelux becoming a neutral demilitarized zone.
 
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Julian

Stalin believed that Western Europe was economically developed enough that it could experience a transition towards Socialism and a planned economy through parliamentary politics and workers' strikes without the need for military intervention. The strength of the French/Italian communist parties and partisan movements supported this belief. He also was a firm believer in "spheres of influence" - he wasn't even willing to fund the Greek communist insurgency in the late 1940s for fear it would upset the British. Even if the Red Army rolls into Paris, it'll pull out fairly quickly after establishing a parliamentary coalition including socialist parties. Though Stalin may try to wheel and deal some concessions in Turkey and Iran in exchange for a faster departure, so that's a pleasant net gain for him.
 
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