alternatehistory.com

The Soviet Union is subject to periodic droughts, the worst of which cause famines, with the worst of the famine coming the year after the drought. For example, the severe drought of 1946 led to the famine of 1947 (though Soviet bungling played a role too.

Lets say that the Soviets had a 1946-style drought in 1940. By late June of 1941 they are nearing the peak of the resulting famine. They desperately need the 1941 planting and harvest to do well. How would that impact the course of events leading up to and during the first year or so of the German invasion?

I have some ideas, but I'll hold back on them for a while and give people a chance to hack away at the idea.

Some issues: Would the Germans detect the food shortages and aim their initial attacks more squarely at denying the harvest to the Soviets? Would the Soviets import food at the expense of drawing down hard currency stocks or reducing imports of industrial machinery? Would the Soviets do a partial mobilization in the spring of 1941 as they did historically or would they want the peasants involved in that mobilization to stay on the farms? In the Soviet Union, peasants tended to get the short end of the stick when food shortage occurred. How would food shortage impact peasant willingness and ability to fight for the Soviet regime? How would the Nazis react to a Soviet population already near starvation? What would happen to the guys in the gulags who were REALLY at the bottom of the food distribution heap?

Have fun!
Top