Alternately, one could claim that Finland [or the Ukraine, though here the claim is more tenuous] did not secede from any state but became de facto independent as the Empire fell and the Bolshevik junta in Petrograd did not have a reasonable claim to legitimacy.
Off the top of my head, former Russian Empire had at least hundred "Independent republics" at some point (late 1917-early 1918). Your argument makes as much sense for them as it does for Finland
I just could't understand because they werw SO HUGE!!!
Size does guarantees certain stability in and by itself. It takes some time to rock the ship that big
Try Lithuania at the end of the game.
You mean August 1991? You mightily overestimate
Sąjūdis's ability to wage a civil war. They had exactly squat in terms of guerilla cadre and weapons. Soviet airborne unit established firm control over Vilnius by early afternoon August 19 (it all started early morning Aug. 19). How do I know? My parents had been at Vilnius at this time and escaped the city (army set up checkpoints around it, just in case) only thanks to quick thinking of my dad and to his Minsk friends, who somehow got a car from Belarussian government's stable and sent it for him immediately. Yours truly had been in Vilnius less then a month before the coup, so I have a pretty clear idea what Lithuanians could and could not do.
Had the Hard Liner's coup against Gorbachev and Yeltsin been successful, a Communist vs. Reformist civil war could have broken out.
As I said, one might consider Aug 19 - 21, 1991 events a civil war that almost happened. Unlike Lithuanians, peoples in Moscow, Leningrad, Nizhny Novgorod were ready to fight. But, truth be told, there were preciously few peoples who would fight for commie dinos at this point. On the flip side, one only needs that much kindling to start a fire.
while China and Poland will both make noises about territorial claims.
Poland undoubtedly would, but for one little problem. It does not share a border with Russia proper, except small Kaliningrad enclave. And, would Civil War break out, it would be fought in Russia between Russians, with Belarus and Ukraine likely making a beeline. Then, attacking Kaliningrad is just stupid. It is very militarized area and, doe to compact size, someone is bound to establish an iron grip there soon. After that, would Poles attack, we would see Soviet airborne guards in Gdansk, not Polish soldiers in Kaliningrad
