Soviet Base in the Azores?

Unfortunately Portuguese communist government would of been besieged by security issues on the mainland and had its hand tied to launch any attack. Plus part of military that was opposed to communist could of moved to islands.

In 1974 when dictatorship wasoverthrown in revolt the Portuguese government looked like it was going taken over by communist. If that happened both Azores and Madeira would of declared independence and sought help from Britain and US. Portuguese communist government would at time be rocked by revolt from both centrist and right wing elements of military and population. It would not of been in any position to try and launch military invasion of either island group. By time communist are either in full control or had been defeated the Azores and Madeira would of been recognized by all of NATO countries and most Latin American countries as independent.

None of this is written in stone. Things could go in many ways.

I don't think revolts in the mainland are likely. The vast majority of the population at the time subscribed to some sort of leftist ideology, being it communism or socialism in some other form. Practically everyone who lived south of river tagus would support the new government for sure, and any rightist insurgencies that could happen in the north would be rapidly crushed since the right was very divided and deorganized.

Also, I don't think Britain and the US would be that quick to commit such an agressive act against Portugal as recognizing the independence of two of its rightful territories and sending troops there.

I think they're far more likely to try the diplomatic road first. As Loli American said, the'd put on an embargoe and try to peacefully talk the Portuguese out of communist.
 
Now, one other thing we have to consider that could radically change this scenario is what Spain would do. The Americans wouldn't be as crazy as to invade Portugal in my opinion (even if we're talking only about the islands), but Franco might be...
 
do a quarantine read: Blockade like in Cuba
For war?
Gets blown up by NATO carrier air forces within the first 4 hours everything of value is destroyed within the first 12 hours base invaded within 16 hours Portugal falls day 7

More likely is the Chilean Solution. With the Army executing a coup & shooting the Communist leaders. Brit or US Intel services would be in the background somewhere. Maybe NATO soldiers would reinforce the bases in the Azores just to make sure.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Now, one other thing we have to consider that could radically change this scenario is what Spain would do. The Americans wouldn't be as crazy as to invade Portugal in my opinion (even if we're talking only about the islands), but Franco might be...
If we use the 1975 communist scenario Franco own death would of paralyzed the Spanish at time.

The Americans and British would not of openly sent troops but like Chile they would of covertly supplied locals with support including military weapons. So I do not see communist Portugal retaining the islands.
 
The Americans and British would not of openly sent troops but like Chile they would of covertly supplied locals with support including military weapons. So I do not see communist Portugal retaining the islands.

We're talking about a large professional army (mostly made of veterans from the colonial war) against a small bunch of armed peasants. No matter how many weapons the americans give them I think they'll allways be at a disadvantage.

And while it's true that anti-communist factions of the militairy could escape to the islands, one must keep in mind these were a minority at the time (at least inside the MFA), and not all of them would be able to get there. Also, I think most anti-communists in the Portuguese militairy would refuse to support Madeiran and Azorean independents, which puts them at odds with FLA and FLAMA.
 
If Madeira and the Azores declare independence, and perhaps cooperate to form a joint "Portuguese Island Federation", the Portuguese military would be hard put to stop it depending on when this takes place. In the Azores there is a major US base which can be reinforced in 12 hours, with the US forces providing "security" at the request of the new government until a "free and open plebiscite" can be held. The same can probably happen in Madeira, especially if the new government asks the US/UK/NATO to provide security until...

The Portuguese Air Force and Navy simply cannot retake either place if there is any US force there, and there is a question of how much of the Portuguese Air Force and Navy will follow a communist governments orders. I would expect that a certain percentage of these services will"defect", aircraft flying to Spain, or perhaps to Madeira/Azores. If you have "worker's soviets" on ships where most or all of the officers are removed for political reasons, those ships aren't going anywhere and most assuredly are not fighting any naval battles. Similarly even if pilots don't fly their aircraft away, if a significant percentage of pilots can't be trusted to fly for political reasons, you don't have much of an air force.

While the USSR would love to see Portugal join the communist camp, they are really in no position to do much beyond talk to keep it from becoming stillborn. If and when it becomes a going concern, either by popular will or winning a civil war, that is a different story.
 
And what, exactly, would NATO do? Invade Portugal? Or just the Açores (which amounts to a declaration of war anyway)? Under what pretext? "We don't want to be comunist, so FU and your independence?"

As for getting the Açores/Madeira becoming independent, that might work, but would still be one hell of a diplomatic storm... what if the mainland sends troops to retake the islands? Would NATO or the US intervene (and, again, under what legal pretext)? And I can see the comunists requesting help from the USSR... things would go downhill fast...

That's exactly what they would do. Remember that the Communists haven't taken over Portugal democratically, this is a coup by pro-Soviet military officers, and the second military coup overall in a year and a half. Invading to restore order is an easy case to make. It's basically Grenada writ large.

Portugal has nothing resembling the power projection capabilities to even think about retaking the Azores/Madeira from the rest of NATO.
 
The success of any communist or far-left coup in the post Carnation revolution (or before) was always a low probability event. The visibility of the far-left did not meant popular appeal (it was quite limited, as was shown in the first elections). Support among the military for the far-left was more visibility than actual numbers. One reason why the attempted coup of 25th November failed was that the communist party stayed neutral because it knew it would lose, and given the extreme hostility it faced in large parts of the country (among them the Azores, where the far-left is traditionally much weaker than average), they knew it would result in banishment and persecution.
All the major pro-democracy parties (Socialists, Social-Democrats and Centrists) and everyone in the military to the right of the communists were united in not wanting the revolution being perverted to install another dictatorship.
In the event a communist revolution appears* to succeed, it could possibly result in declarations of independence both by Madeira and Azores, but the legal recognized government would still be the provisional government nominated by the interim President (and they would not support communism).

*I mention "appears", because it would, at worst, result in a temporary takeover of Lisbon and the south, followed by a countermanouver from the authorities loyal to the provisional government to retake those areas (in Lisbon, it would not be difficult, given that the far-left didn't have more than a mid-sized support).
 
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