Well the Germans will have some idea of what's going in, I don't think they were quite as ignorant as you imply. They'd have some idea an attack was coming and it certainly would go with Hitler's idea of Nazi Germany as the defense against "Bolshevism" and the "Asian menace".
Soviet Attack on Nazi Germany in 1942
- Thread starter Julian
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Well the Germans will have some idea of what's going in, I don't think they were quite as ignorant as you imply. They'd have some idea an attack was coming and it certainly would go with Hitler's idea of Nazi Germany as the defense against "Bolshevism" and the "Asian menace".
Snake Featherston
Banned
Given that this is how they were reacting in the later stages of the Axis-Soviet War of OTL I'm talking about, and this particular scenario is an inversion of the OTL invasion of the USSR by the Germans, I daresay it will be one of those "And they were surprised how, precisely" things that people in the ATL AH.com would be calling ASB that was so for a damn good reason that makes perfect sense.
There's a lot different between 1944 Germany and 1941 Germany. Hitler is a lot more realistic and lets his generals handle a lot of the planning. Not that his generals were much better in terms of predjudice but they had some idea of how to handle military operations. On an interesting note though Germany had no concept of the "operation" like the Soviets did. The majority of major German offensives were strategic in nature, aimed in knocking out an enemy and overwhelming his strategic depth in a single blow. The few late war attempts at the operational art basically ended in disaster. All Soviet offensives however had fairly limited goals which were to be met, and their overall strategy didn't necessarily rely on each operation succeeding. The overall southern strategic offensive in Fall 1943 was composed of an attack along the Mius and several thrusts from the former Kursk Salient to the Dnieper. Though the Mius Offensive failed its failure didn't cripple the overall Soviet planand indeed improved its chances of success because German reserves were out of position to counter subsequent Soviet advances.
Also take into consideration, in 1941 according to some sources only 25 of Soviet fighters were modern, all others were I-16 or I-153. According to same sources, around 2000 soviet planes were destroyed on the ground. And just for comparison. For example Slovak fighter in 1941 didn't accumulated to much kills in 1941 while still flying on bi-planes B-534 but after change to Bf-109 they were able to do so.
Other side of the coin is, if Soviet advanced just 150 miles in first big operations, they bombers (Pe-2, Tu-2) would be able to easily reach factories in Silesia, Prussia, Protektorate and Slovakia. But fall of the Romania would be probably enough to considerably cripple German war effort. So LW would be flying much less sorties and Soviets would gain same superiority as they gained in 1944/45. And I can imagine rising resistance in some occupied countries, maybe even Poland, as Katyn would be not known. 150 miles means Soviets will get behind Visla, "liberate' Warsaw, conquer huge parts of Romania, Hungary and Slovakia. Even Wienna Me factories would be close enough for Soviet bombers. Masses of Soviet il-2 attacking German reinforcements. Losses would be high? Who cares? Attrition rate would be always worst for Nazis. Between July and August 1943 LW lost around 1000 planes on the eastern front. Sure Soviets lost much more, but they could handle it. If something like this happened in 1942, + surprise attack, LW losses would be much worst. So I don't thin Nazis will gain air superiority over advancing Soviets. Maybe localy but it is not going to help them. And btw till 1942 even light AA defense of the Soviets army could get better, They would have plenty of T-26 anf BT to built on. Sure there would be plenty of Soviet planes shoot down, but Stalin don't care. And plenty of Hartmanns would be later after war able to tell their stories, how good fighter pilots they were. Well, they were, but it was not war winner.
Other side of the coin is, if Soviet advanced just 150 miles in first big operations, they bombers (Pe-2, Tu-2) would be able to easily reach factories in Silesia, Prussia, Protektorate and Slovakia. But fall of the Romania would be probably enough to considerably cripple German war effort. So LW would be flying much less sorties and Soviets would gain same superiority as they gained in 1944/45. And I can imagine rising resistance in some occupied countries, maybe even Poland, as Katyn would be not known. 150 miles means Soviets will get behind Visla, "liberate' Warsaw, conquer huge parts of Romania, Hungary and Slovakia. Even Wienna Me factories would be close enough for Soviet bombers. Masses of Soviet il-2 attacking German reinforcements. Losses would be high? Who cares? Attrition rate would be always worst for Nazis. Between July and August 1943 LW lost around 1000 planes on the eastern front. Sure Soviets lost much more, but they could handle it. If something like this happened in 1942, + surprise attack, LW losses would be much worst. So I don't thin Nazis will gain air superiority over advancing Soviets. Maybe localy but it is not going to help them. And btw till 1942 even light AA defense of the Soviets army could get better, They would have plenty of T-26 anf BT to built on. Sure there would be plenty of Soviet planes shoot down, but Stalin don't care. And plenty of Hartmanns would be later after war able to tell their stories, how good fighter pilots they were. Well, they were, but it was not war winner.
Snake Featherston
Banned
The differences to a great extent tend to be exaggerated. The Germans of 1941 were just as focused on tactics as the 1944 variety. The difference was the Soviets at this point had serious, grave defects at the tactical level, such as textbook attacks, context be damned, mostly-obsolete weaponry the turnover of whh was just starting to change in summer 1941, and being in the middle of constructing a new defensive line structured more for political reasons than military logic. I should note that in saying that Soviet successes depend on German stupidity here I'm hardly saying the Soviets are going to be wonder-workers, simply that German mistakes *and* Soviet strengths will work together to create this scenario.
The Nazi modern forces were *always* a steel blade on a rotten wooden handle, and on defense that steel blade will be reduced to uselessness where the Soviets will be hammering that rotten handle until it's splintered and useless in its own right. At the crudest level a Soviet force with more modern weapons and a great deal of trucks and firepower is vastly superior to a German army more dependent on horses for logistics than its predecessor of 1914-8 was. Playing defense only worsens this factor.
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BlairWitch749
Banned
Again you're refusing to address the crucial element of my point-Nazi ideology, which the German generals were for before they were against, held that Slavs in general and Communist Slavs in particular are not fully human, thus the Nazis have no reason to suspect that not-full-humans could pull off a surprise attack on "superior Aryan might"rolleyes:
snake their underestimation is on capability NOT intention; so a russian attack wouldn't be that shocking; an attack with 5000 tanks and 8000 aircraft and 10000 aritllery pieces backed by 5million men will be shocking
the infantry at the front will be shocked and helpless in the first critical hours but then german command structure will kick in they did war game such a possibility and would put into place their army standard moves for the defensive; hold the shoulders in strength, counter attack exposed spearheads on the flanks etc
once the scale was observed, everything would be sent to stem the tide; especially LW assets which would make themselves very quickly felt
hitler rants and raves blah blah blah but other then order the tanks and aircraft to assault the penetrations and then demanding the OKH draw up counter attack plans; what else would you expect him to do
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BlairWitch749
Banned
the only aircraft that would be competitive with the ME-109F and the FW-190A are the LA-5 and Yak-9 which pilots (even if they where rushed months earlier than otl) would have little to no squadron experience on; the overwhelming majority would be other, inferior aircraft
The problem is that OKH's plans were completely wrong in their estimations of Soviet capabilities and their operational objectives. Their plans would be based off the misguided assumption that any Soviet attack would be against Warsaw and East Prussia concurrently, and that the Soviets would lack the reserves to commit to all three of these axis at once. This alone would lead to many counterattacks being launched against Soviet secondary spearheads, ignoring the ones where the majority of reserves were placed.
Why would the war end at Berlin? Without the Western Front Hitler will likely leave and attempt to continue to direct the war effort, albait not very well.
Snake Featherston
Banned
Sigh, for a fourth time-what happens with the ideologues refusing to credit the Soviets with any kind of capability to launch an offensive at all and then facing superior quality armor and parity-quality air craft? The LW *may* be better than IOTL due to how the Germans have to fight a war with the British, but the Wehrmacht as a whole will be smaller than IOTL and like the Red Army has no defensive doctrine proper for the war of this time as opposed to the last war. In case you're unaware there is a difference between 1918 and 1942 in terms of defending against this.
And no amount of arguing from the OTL Barbarossa scenario will deal with the reality of this one. The Nazis had to destroy repeatedly Soviet armies IOTL as they never quit fighting (if nothing else fear of the NVKD is a motivator here) and applying that tenacity to a Soviet offensive means bad things.....for the Nazis.
I didn't say it would end in Berlin. But after Berlin falls, Soviet would advance west but I believe in that case Nazis would start to pull troops from occupied France. And there is a possibility WA would try to land in France and secure it. So there is possibility of some kind of western front. I believe till end of 1944 Soviets would secure most of Germany and before, end of 1942, mid 1943 "liberate" Czechoslovakia. And especially in Czech lands there would be strong support for Soviets after Munich betrayal from WA. So they can even rise extra armies in former Protektorate. They may rise some armies in Poland too. And if Stalin was smart enough and let Finland be, he wouldn't need to sent extra troops north. And without Romanian oil fields, Germany would be in big troubles. No much of the gas for tanks and planes, not enough for training of new crews. It is even possible Soviets will play Romanians against Hungarians to recover lands lost in Second Vienna award.
Nazis could do whatever they want, 5 milion lost Soviet soldiers will not stop Red army.