Soviet Attack on Nazi Germany in 1942

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

As I said, relations only began to improve in the late 1920s and 1930s. The Soviet Union wasn't considered a "normal" nation state, but by the 1930s it was treated as one and engaged in a lot of economic cooperation and diplomacy with the West, a fairly big step up since just a decade ago the West was intervening in its civil war. While there was a lot of mistrust, much of it had shifted towards dislike, especially as the Soviet Union appeared to most to be isolationist and fairly unimportant in world politics. Leading up to WW2 the Soviet Union's overtures for alliance against Nazi Germany were ignored partly because it wasn't seen as a credible force (They certainly weren't going for some gamey scheme to play off Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union). It was never the big threat, that was always Germany.

None of what you said refuted my idea that Western rapprochement with the Soviet Union was probably motivated by the Depression as much as by recognition that, love them or hate them, the Soviets were here to stay.

German cooperation with the Soviet Union might have been the thing that prompted the appeasement policy for German territorial demands in the first place, it's absolutely ridiculous to say that the Soviets were not taken seriously, hell half the reason for the Soviets going for the Nazi-Soviet Pact was because it gave them a lot of wiggle room to make good on their territorial demands of other nations without the Western Allies making moves against them for it. The W. Allies were not idiots, they did see the Soviets for the threat they posed, especially if they defied all expectations and got close to the Nazis.

Yeah the West is going to let the Nazis duke it out with the Soviets if it comes to it, if the Soviets start the fight, it just means for the Americans that things are easier than OTL and they can continue to supply the British war effort while leaving the Soviets to wage their own.

 

[Julian]

Ok. How did we start debating about this anyways?

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Ok. How did we start debating about this anyways?

A roughly two-sentence post on how you felt that the Allies did not think the Soviet Union was a credible threat to their interests.

I love this site .

 

[Julian]

A roughly two-sentence post on how you felt that the Allies did not think the Soviet Union was a credible threat to their interests.

I love this site .

Indeed, unrelated things always seem to pop up in threads.

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

Indeed, unrelated things always seem to pop up in threads.

Such is the course of conversation, I feel kind of bad for the people who were actually debating the original point of the thread but got caught in the crossfire.

 

[Julian]

Such is the course of conversation, I feel kind of bad for the people who were actually debating the original point of the thread but got caught in the crossfire.

Anyways, so, yeah, Soviet Union attacking Nazi Germany in 1942. How does that work out?

 

[Marja]

Anyways, so, yeah, Soviet Union attacking Nazi Germany in 1942. How does that work out?

They do better than in our time line. They haven't suffered the massive defeats of 1941, and they don't have to rebuild their armies in 1941-1942 with minimal training, so they get to finish reorganizing their forces in 1941.

Worst case scenario? Very successful German counterattacks, heavy Soviet losses ... with the Red Army still in better shape than in our time line, and the front line somewhere between Warszawa and Minsk.

Best case scenario? Total German collapse, Red Army taking Warszawa and Ploesti and threatening Berlin.

 

[PhilKearny]

If Germany is not tied up in the east, does DAK crush the British in Africa?

 

[Snake Featherston]

There is a reason a select few German generals supported waiting for Stalin to strike first. If he struck first in 1942 or 1943 they would have to put all their tanks and most of their troops up front and likely would have them smashed by the German counter offensive and Europe would have been much more united against the Soviet threat and Stalin likely wouldn't have been given Lend Lease.

Not at all. The real German army that would exist then in 1942 would survive only because no modern army can be destroyed in a single operation or campaign. An army more horse-dependent than its WWII counterpart stunned by a surprise attack, without sufficient armor to halt a huge Soviet offensive, and with its own artillery outgunned in quantity and caliber both.....the question is how problematic Soviet force structure is in terms of logistics, that and nothing more.

 

[Timmy811]

Not at all. The real German army that would exist then in 1942 would survive only because no modern army can be destroyed in a single operation or campaign. An army more horse-dependent than its WWII counterpart stunned by a surprise attack, without sufficient armor to halt a huge Soviet offensive, and with its own artillery outgunned in quantity and caliber both.....the question is how problematic Soviet force structure is in terms of logistics, that and nothing more.

Why would it be more horse dependent?

Also we're not taking into account why the Germans have not attacked the USSR. Did they spend '41 knocking Britain out of the war? If so they can dedicate all their strength to fighting the USSR and were likely preparing their own offensive before getting beat to the punch.

 

[Snake Featherston]

Why would it be more horse dependent?

Also we're not taking into account why the Germans have not attacked the USSR. Did they spend '41 knocking Britain out of the war? If so they can dedicate all their strength to fighting the USSR and were likely preparing their own offensive before getting beat to the punch.

Because the OTL German Army of 1941, at its strongest it would ever get with a peacetime economy in wartime, was more mechanized than the WWI army? And because if Germany's fighting the UK with that same peacetime-economy-in-wartime-for-political-purposes it can produce for an amphibious-aerial war with Britain or a land war against the USSR, but not both at once. Germany would only go to a wartime economy in wartime if the shit hits the fan, in which case it's already starting far behind.

 

[Julian]

Because the OTL German Army of 1941, at its strongest it would ever get with a peacetime economy in wartime, was more mechanized than the WWI army? And because if Germany's fighting the UK with that same peacetime-economy-in-wartime-for-political-purposes it can produce for an amphibious-aerial war with Britain or a land war against the USSR, but not both at once. Germany would only go to a wartime economy in wartime if the shit hits the fan, in which case it's already starting far behind.

Wouldn't that mean that Germany would be essentially at the same level of economic mobilization that it was when Barbarossa started anyways?

 

[Snake Featherston]

Wouldn't that mean that Germany would be essentially at the same level of economic mobilization that it was when Barbarossa started anyways?

Yes, but geared to a war fought in the air and on sea........without any ability to transition over to a war on the ground requiring infantry-artillery-armor weapons and a shitload of them in a bleeding hurry. The Germans have *potential* to rectify this......but by the time they do it will already be in a desperate situation and the Soviets will only be stronger as it is. The problem for the Germans was Hitler did not want to go to a wartime economy for fear of political unrest, and German victories did nothing to convince him anything else was necessary. And if it comes to the kind of smashing the Soviets will do in their own equivalent to Barbarossa there is no chance for the Germans to cube this circle whatsoever.

Soviet victory admittedly in this regard will as with the overall victory of the Allies of OTL owe as much to simple quantity of production and quantity of manpower, but that was something the Germans deliberately inflicted on themselves as it was.

 

[eliphas8]

Why would it be more horse dependent?

Also we're not taking into account why the Germans have not attacked the USSR. Did they spend '41 knocking Britain out of the war? If so they can dedicate all their strength to fighting the USSR and were likely preparing their own offensive before getting beat to the punch.

The reason that they didnt invade the Soviet Union is the very real probability of Hitler thinking a war on two fronts would be almost as stupid as that unnamable sea feline.

 

[Julian]

Yes, but geared to a war fought in the air and on sea........without any ability to transition over to a war on the ground requiring infantry-artillery-armor weapons and a shitload of them in a bleeding hurry. The Germans have *potential* to rectify this......but by the time they do it will already be in a desperate situation and the Soviets will only be stronger as it is. The problem for the Germans was Hitler did not want to go to a wartime economy for fear of political unrest, and German victories did nothing to convince him anything else was necessary. And if it comes to the kind of smashing the Soviets will do in their own equivalent to Barbarossa there is no chance for the Germans to cube this circle whatsoever.

Soviet victory admittedly in this regard will as with the overall victory of the Allies of OTL owe as much to simple quantity of production and quantity of manpower, but that was something the Germans deliberately inflicted on themselves as it was.

I don't see why Germany would move towards a land-sea focus. The Battle of Britain ended well before Hitler decided to invade the Soviet Union, and Germany was never go to be a naval power anywhere and lacked the capacity to quickly invest in naval construction. Sure they would be focusing on Africa more, but a lot of production would be going towards preparing the armies in Poland, Romania, Hungary, and East Prussia to either defend against a Soviet attack or launch an evental invasion. Only minimal German forces would be in North Africa, and the Luftwaffe would be split between North Africa, Germany, and the East. So there would still be a lot of focus on tactical aircraft and land forces along with other things.

 

[nandalf]

Well,i read a scenário in a book,don´t remember the name that the soviets beat Germany py the punch in 1941 and get curbstomped.If the german discover the soviet intentions and prepare for the atack in1942,i guess the equatin changes completly and the germans smash a lot of the soviet armies in their counterpunch.

 

[Julian]

Well,i read a scenário in a book,don´t remember the name that the soviets beat Germany py the punch in 1941 and get curbstomped.If the german discover the soviet intentions and prepare for the atack in1942,i guess the equatin changes completly and the germans smash a lot of the soviet armies in their counterpunch.

Well the Soviets would never have attacked in 1941, and if they did its results would be a lot different than if they attacked in 1942, I think. After all a whole year of reforms itsn't something to be shrugged at.

 

[nandalf]

I think it was zukhov who had proposed a pre-emptive atack in 1941,i am not shure it was him,but did read about that proposal somewhere.I will go look for that tomorow.

 

[Julian]

I think it was zukhov who had proposed a pre-emptive atack in 1941,i am not shure it was him,but did read about that proposal somewhere.I will go look for that tomorow.

Zhukov did head a planning session in March 1941 that developed some basic offensive plans, but later war games also conducted by him showed that the Red Army wasn't prepared to go on the offensive in 1941

 

[jmc247]

Zhukov did head a planning session in March 1941 that developed some basic offensive plans, but later war games also conducted by him showed that the Red Army wasn't prepared to go on the offensive in 1941

If Germany focuses on the UK first one can assume the Germans will have also taken the time to try to turn the border between the Soviet half of Poland and German half of Poland a DMZ on steroids. I am sure they would have for Romania as well.

The real question will be how much of the Red Army gets chewed up in the initial thrust, how far they get, if they get knocked back and if Germany managed to knock the UK out of the war by the time Stalin attacks. The fall of Singapore and Egypt combined very well might have been enough to see a Prime Minister Lord Halifax make peace. Churchill certainly feared that was the case.

A one front war in 1942 with Stalin viewed as the aggressor by Europeans would change things quite a bit. Vital supplies to keep the German war effort going would suddenly be open to them and we would see the USSR and Germany bleed each other white. When the US and UK are done with Japan they might re-enter the fray in Europe.