Soviet atomic program without espionage

In 1949 the soviet union detonated their first atomic bomb. It is common knowledge that they had spies in the US stealing the secrets to the bomb, such as Greenwall, the Rosenbergs, etc. Let's say that they didn't have any spies in the US, or the spies were unsuccsessful, or they were caught before they could deliver the atomic secrets, how might this effect the soviet atomic bomb program? How long, if at all, would this delay the soviets first successfull detonation?
 
In 1949 the soviet union detonated their first atomic bomb. It is common knowledge that they had spies in the US stealing the secrets to the bomb, such as Greenwall, the Rosenbergs, etc. Let's say that they didn't have any spies in the US, or the spies were unsuccsessful, or they were caught before they could deliver the atomic secrets, how might this effect the soviet atomic bomb program? How long, if at all, would this delay the soviets first successfull detonation?

The estimations I have seen talked about a delay between 6 and 18 months, depending on "luck" of the Soviet research efforts. (you need a lot of luck in R&D, too)
 

Larrikin

Banned
I would think the maximum delay would probably be about 3 years. What the spies gave the USSR was the exact right way to do it. By getting it right first time every time you can cut time off development.

Once they knew it was possible, and looked at the work that had been published pre-war by various people, it meant that they had a good idea of which way the needed to go, and which ways were most probably wrong.

Even then, you are still going to have technical details you need to get right, equipment to develop etc. If you know just what you need, more time saved.
 
Its funny because I read somewhere ( sorry dont remember where ) that the KGB ( Beria specifically ) retarded a bit the production of the first Soviet nuke, because he insisted that it had to be EXACTLY the same than the American, while the scientists ( who logically know more of the theme that the psychotic guy ) had made some changes, they thought they were improving the model, and although I am neither a nuclear physicist nor I have the plans I tend to consider their opinion in the matter more reliable than Beria´s ( and the author too thought the same )...

So at the end the first Soviet A-Bomb was a almost carbon copy of Little Boy, I suppose later he let them play ...

EDIT: @JjeeporCreepor: With the T-2, they copied even the Bullet Holes ( Tupolev was quite pissed by that order, so copied them 100% equal ... )
 
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Sounds like when they were reverse engineering those US B-29s that landed in Soviet territory during the war - Tupolev were told to build an exact copy, and an exact copy they build, allegedly right down to copying the manufacturer's marks...

Which just goes to show that when Stalin gave someone an order, they often felt that it was wisest to obey it to the letter.
 
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