Good post there Viriato, but I can see a few aspects you many not have considered:
1 - Do the economic benefits in South Africa make it to the blacks? They did at some level starting in the mid 1960s and badly eroded black support for the ANC during the 1970s. The Bantu Education Act and the Soweto Riots put an end to that slump. But here, one could conceivably have the wealth of South Africa and its vast resources eventually start reaching the blacks in the form of greater jobs and wages, and this would be encouraged by the whites I'd figure - it grows the markets for South African goods.
2 - Does a black leader that the whites respect come up? Mandela was hard to accept until the 1990s, because he spent most of his life as a left-winger. Somebody like Steve Biko could change that, however, assuming he could get noticed. That could start allowing the votes to blacks with sufficient education and wealth, like what happened in Rhodesia. The Federation in 1953 had just 70 Africans eligible to vote. In 1963 they had several black junior ministers, Kenneth Kaunda being one of them. The wealth of South Africa could - probably would - make for many blacks start trying to gain the respect of the Europeans. Part of the reason South Africa didn't disintegrate in 1994-95 was that respect was earned.
The first moderate African leaders were people like Seretse Khama, who were and truly on the scene by 1960. Khama would become Botswana's president in 1966 in OTL, and led the country well. Combine him with the likes of Albert Luthuli, Dr. Joshua Nkomo (who turned to armed struggle in Rhodesia long after Mugabe did) and Steve Biko and his BCM later on, and its entirely possible that the racism is dying by 1980 - the black leaders advocate non-violence and proving yourself as Biko and Nkomo did, combined with these black leaders making the racial dogma of people like Verwoerd and Vorster look completely stupid. Even Ian Smith had always said that Rhodesia had places for both the blacks and whites.
3 - You assume the post-war growth in whites is 200,000 between 1948 and 1960. That is being seriously pessimistic IMO, because the number that landed in Rhodesia alone between 1945 and 1970 alone is almost 250,000. Couple that with economic growth and an immigration-friendly United Party, you could probably make than 200,000 more like half a million. That means a lot to 1960 South Africa, it's a growth of 10-20% of the white population.
4 - Could South Africa have been an appealing prospect from other European countries? The Germans would in particular be at home in some places in South Africa, especially places like Luderitz and Windhoek.
I’ll try to answer all of your questions.
1. The economic benefits would trickle down to the African majority as they did in the Rhodesias in the 1950s and South Africa in the 1960s. However, the white minority would undoubtedly have the most to gain from any economic boom. The hardships for the black majority would come after the 1973 energy crisis. This crisis would put strain on the economy and I imagine that the fall of world copper prices in the mid-1970s would cause unrest among the mine labourers in Northern Rhodesia. One has to remember that in the Copperbelt the Africans enjoyed a relatively well off existence (by African standards).
2. I believe that the majority of whites will be suspicious of any African nationalist movement as long as the Soviet Union is around. That is because the nationalist movements inevitably looked to the Soviet bloc for assistance and aid. In my opinion it’s no coincidence that white South Africa embraced multiracial equality only once the Soviet Union was gone.
3. In OTL South Africa had 167,795 white immigrants between 1946-1956, however there were also many emigrants especially to the Rhodesias making the net gain after emigration only 73,795. In OTL South Africa itself had a gain of around 250,000 white immigrants from 1960-1969 with the government actively recruiting them. Northern and Southern Rhodesia’s white immigration peaked in 1956 with 26,201 arrivals, around 40% were from Britain and 38% were from South Africa. I believe a net of 200,000 to 250,000 is not being pessimistic at all.
4. There was immigration from non-English speaking countries to South Africa and even Rhodesia. However, during this period it was much easier for someone from say Germany to emigrate to a country in the Americas where there were German-speaking communities to live among. Also, much of the unskilled jobs that European immigrants performed in the United States, Canada & Argentina was done by the native majority. So any immigrant that comes to Africa is generally going to have to work in the service sector or farming (a capital intensive sector). There were around 40,000 Germans that settled in South Africa from 1946-1980. A few did go to Southwest Africa, mostly to Windhoek. Luderitz is no economic powerhouse so it has room for few immigrants.
The largest non-English speaking European group to settle in South Africa were the Portuguese. Beginning in the 1950s large numbers of Portuguese immigrants from the island of Madeira began arriving in South Africa. They were largely small business owners who would set up small stores or businesses, much like Asian immigrants in North America do. In 1975 they were joined by thousands of their compatriots from Angola and especially Mozambique who expanded into commercial farming and other industries. The Greeks and Greek-Cypriot immigrants that settled in Rhodesia and South Africa were similar in that they were also small business owners, often running commercial enterprises in primarily black areas.
The Dutch from Indonesia were mentioned, and there were around 250,000 Dutch who lived in Indonesia in 1945, however only 1/3 of these were of unmixed Dutch origin. Many settled in Australia, and a few thousand might make it to South Africa, but it’s hardly enough to make an impact. In OTL around 25,000 Dutch immigrants arrived in South Africa between 1960 and 1980.
I’m going to try to make more precise demographic estimates for South Africa, Southwest Africa, the two Rhodesias and Bechuanaland. I’ve decided to exclude Basutoland and Swaziland from the equation since it seems that their native kings were very much against inclusion into the Union of South Africa and the Colonial Office respected their wishes.
I’m going to start with the 1946 census, since all those territories had a census that year. Below are the actual numbers:
Native Africans 11,747,866 (75.7%)
Whites 2,517,178 (16.2%)
Coloureds 963,384 (6.2%)
Asians 287,178 (1.9%)
Total: 15,515,606
Moving forward to 1960 are approximate estimates since South Africa took a census in 1960 and the British territories in 1961.
Native Africans 17,145,000 (75.7%)
Whites 3,459,000 (15.3%)
Coloureds 1,550,000 (6.8%)
Asians 493,000 (2.2%)
Total: 22,647,000
My estimate includes for 1960 includes higher unrestricted immigration from Britain as well as from other countries. Also, immigration to Rhodesia does not slow down in the 1958-1960 period as it did when rumblings for independence began. I’m also going to assume that family reunification immigration is allowed for Asians (South African banned it in 1953).
Native Africans 17,145,000 (74.7%)
Whites 3,736,000 (16.3%)
Coloureds 1,560,000 (6.8%)
Asians 523,000 (2.3%)
Total: 22,964,000
For the 1960-1970 period I’m going to assume that there are more immigrants flowing to the Rhodesias. The copper prices are still stable and the copper belt will especially attract many settlers. The discovery of diamonds in Bechuanaland will also attract some immigrants there. Here is my 1970 estimate.
Native Africans 25,693,000 (76.8%)
Whites 4,988,000 (14.9%)
Coloureds 2,107,000 (6.3%)
Asians 680,000 (2.0%)
Total 33,468,000
Below is my 1980 census estimate.
Native Africans 34,714,000 (77.8%)
Whites 6,332,000 (14.2%)
Coloureds 2,704,000 (6.1%)
Asians 881,000 (2.0%)
Total: 44,631,000
For 1990 I have increased the immigration throughout the 1980s. I’m assuming that even with some sanctions this country can be in much better shape than South Africa was in OTL. The frontline states are much further away from the core of the country. Also, Rhodesia was able to attract a net of white immigrants from 1967-1975 despite much tougher economic sanctions.
Native Africans 46,840,000 (79.5%)
Whites 7,601,000 (12.9%)
Coloureds 3,486,000 (5.9%)
Asians 1,016,000 (1.7%)
Total 58,943,000
As I stated in my earlier post I have a South Africa that digs in its heels and ends up facing sanctions. With the assumption that the sanctions are much like those that say Myanmar faces, the country can take it. There is some civil strife and international outrage at the lack of human rights. However, the economy chugs along and has been since 2004 enjoying an economic boom due to demand for gold, copper, coal, etc from China.
The country attracts immigrants especially from Eastern Europe, mostly from Ukraine, Belarus, the former Yugoslavia and Romania. There are still a sizable number of British immigrants arriving (around 10,000-15,000 per year). Also, there are fewer blacks as the huge numbers of Nigerians, Somalis, Ethiopians and other Africans that have made it to South Africa are not allowed in. Also, there are probably going to be thousands of South African refugees in Tanzania and the Congo. Below is my 2007 estimate:
Native Africans 61,136,000 (79.5%)
Whites 10,207,000 (13.3%)
Coloureds 4,311,000 (5.6%)
Asians 1,248,000 (1.6%)
Total: 76,902,000