Southern Glory, American Fury

11

The Balkans and Africa

The detail might be different, but I don't see that the actual situation is much unbalanced from OTL. Perhaps I should put the events back into the end of the 1870s; I only shuffled things around to let the butterflies have a bit of a playtime, but its not necessary.

From the end of the 1870s into the early 1880s Britain is fighting a much-enlarged version of the South African wars of OTL. This starts as per OTL with Xhosa uprisings, leading to trouble with other Western native people, gathering in the whole problem of annexation of the Transvaal after their defeat to the Pedi, and then subsuming the Zulus.

The confusion of OTL is somewhat ameliorated here for 2 reasons
-1- France is fighting its war against Argentina and Chile to secure control over Patagonia-Araucania, a strategic position in itself, but also threatening a British ally/client (Argentina) and necessitating British intervention in coastal Bolivia to assure that the nitrate businesses (with their British investment) remain secure.
-2- Britain has more recent larger experience of deploying sizeable forces overseas, both in the War of Southern Independence, and in the California campaign that followed it. In addition, the Great War fought in Europe saw a mass mobilisation unknown since Napoleonic times, and the use of large numbers of Indian units, who are now used to being utilised as imperial fire-fighters

Britain thus determines to crush all the various South African opposition, send enough troops to do it, and to secure both a strategic position of its own, and to show the world that it can do anything that France can do

Whilst Britain and France are thus engaged, the situation in the Balkans rises up, and the Slavic peoples gain the active support of Russia.

Britain and France are not at all out of the reckoning, especially as far as sending large naval forces to the region are concerned, but they are not likely to threaten war with Russia over the events there

In addition, Egypt still has a navy, and the will to use it. Butterflies have played with Egypt in several ways - there was less of an OTL boom (Southern/CSA cotton supplies to Europe were assured by Anglo-French intervention), and thus less of an OTL overstretch and bust, and also the different international scene meant that Ismail was more cautious, gave proper invitations to the Ottomans and did not suffer the indignities of having his navy confiscated

The settlement in the Balkans is not all bad for the Ottomans - there is no San Stefano interlude, so the formalisation of the vague idea of Great Bulgaria never occurs; Bosnia-Hercegovina emerges as an autonomous Muslim principality recognising Ottoman suzerainty (alike Tunis or Egypt)

Serbia and Montenegro are recognised as independent principalities, whilst the new independent principality of Bulgaria comes into existence, and Romania is recognised as an independent kingdom under its Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen ruler (Carol I, being the brother of Leopold, late monarch of Spain)

In a way this is not seen as being so bad for the Ottomans either - the independence of its Christian subjects in the Balkans allows it to focus instead on developing Thrace, Macedonia, Albania etc as Muslim lands, whilst the remaining suzerainty over its Muslim vassal in Bosnia is the same relationship as still occurs in N Africa

France does not establish a protectorate over Tunis in this period - for 3 reasons
-1- Ongoing war in S America
-2- Existence of the Egyptian navy in the loyal service to Ottoman interests
-3- French W African adventures (as per OTL) are straining its resources, leaving nothing for a potentially explosive action in N Africa

In addition, Egypt remains a stable vassal of the Ottomans

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
African Conundrums

Unfortunately I don't possess encyclpaedic tomes on late 19th century Africa, and whilst I do have access to some good sources (eg "Diamonds, Gold and War" by Martin Meredith which covers S Africa 1870+) there are giant holes lying around, not least as concerns Tunis, Eritrea and Madagascar.

Reading Meredith one sees the cast of fools for the S Africa of the late 1870s and early 1880s, but the Great War fought not so long previous would have weeded out theoretical generals such as Colley, whilst a determination in London to force the confederation as a show of imperial might equal to what France was doing in Patagonia would have meant that someone more effectual than Shepstone or Frere would have been sent out to control the political side of it. Chelmsford might still be there, but the Great War has either taught him a lesson or two, or would mean that he would be subservient to someone who had learnt such.

The stage is perfect for Garnet Wolseley, not just to come in midway, do what he did OTL, and leave again, but to be sent to take overall control of the war, and to force it through to an eventual conclusion where confederation is achieved. To his OTL glories, Wolseley has either added, or put in their stead, ATL ones probably including California and the Great War, maybe perhaps in a senior position in the Frisian Landing

In addition, there are Indian troops, and I would expect that Frederick Roberts features somewhere amongst their commanders, winning a jump to general officer status throughout the course of the South African War (he would be in his 40s in this period)

Ropp (Theodore Ropp's monumental history of the French navy "The Development of a Modern Navy - French Naval Policy 1871-1904") is my main source for Tunis. He states that France was given a free hand in Tunis, by Britain, in exchange for recognising British acquisition of Cyprus in 1878

Since Cyprus 1878 never occurred in this timeline, and the Egyptian fleet remains strong, active and loyal to the Ottomans, it seems unlikely that Tunis is under any particular threat there.

What really needs to be examined is the position of Italy - and here I know least, mainly because I never came across a book that really cared about Italy in Africa. Operating offline as I do when writing (ie as I write this) I have only books and saved webpages to look at, and I still don't entirely understand how Italy acquired Eritrea in OTL

Wiki's year-by-year account says that in 1887 Abyssinia defeats the Italians at Dogali, and then 2 years later Abysinnia grants in May 1889 Eritrea to the Italians, which seems a bit illogical, especially since at this time this was an Abyssinia that was regularly defeating its opponents where-ever it met them

Italy in this timeline lacks Rome and Sicily, but does have the Southern Tyrol, Trentino and Gorizia. I would think it has lost more than it has gained, as far as things balancing out are concerned. Sicily is under a kind of Anglo-British protection (a la young Greece) whilst France fanatically backs the Papal State, supplying the African Guard, and probably is supported by Austria (kingdom now) and Bavaria (likewise an independent kingdom) in so doing

But Italy is still going to have ambitions. Maybe they do attempt to make a move on Tunis, using the usual European excuse of protecting its citizens or business interests from some internal event. If so, Egypt will send its fleet to Tunis, and Italy will be faced with going to war against the Ottoman Empire, no doubt finding that this includes France and Britain as well

Italy can hardly count on the support of a reduced German Empire, and even if it has friendly relations with Hungary and with Russia neither is going to be much use. It is going to have to back down

I posit the idea of a friendship with Hungary against a certain strand of idealism here - I think that Italy is going to be more wary of and antagonistic towards Austria, who own Trieste, Carniola, Pola etc and who support and aid the Papal State, than they would be with regard to Hungary, even with Italian ambitions in Dalmatia. The latter is far more a vague ambitions than the former, and Italian-Hungarian friendship can actually give Italy influence, and Italian-speakers protection, within Dalmatia, whilst Hungary in turn would be happy to have a potential ally against Austria

Italy and Russia are often vaguely friendly, and have opposition to the Ottoman Empire as an important part of their foreign policy. But Russia has no interest in specifically supporting Italy

Italy could well react to this humiliation in a similar fashion as they did to the OTL humiliation of seeing France impose a protectorate on Tunis herself - by aiming their ambitions into the Red Sea. But I don't think things will go well for them. The OTL defeat at Dogali came to an Italy who was stronger and only humiliated by omission. Here, I think it would come worse, and it would also rebound worse since Egypt remains independent and strong, and is not going to like Italy adventuring in Eritrea

In addition, I can see an independent (ie Ottoman vassal) Egypt co-operating with Abyssinia over the Mahdi in the Sudan. From the Egyptian point of view, the guy is a heretic, claiming to be what he is not, a blasphemer in so doing. To the Abyssinians he is no doubt stirring up trouble amidst the Muslim vassals of the Negus

With this going on, the Abyssinian defeat of the Italians is going to rebound to Cairo, where the Khedive is going to be doubly angered at Italian presumption. I can see him reinforcing Egyptian possessions (Massawa) and sending a detachment of the navy there with orders to aid the Abyssinians if the Italians return

At the same time diplomatic channels will speak this to Florence, and Umberto I will know how badly his government has miscalculated. Whilst the follow-on from this could bring about a rising across the former kingdom of Naples (half of the Two Sicilies) the eventual outcome could be to Italy's advantage

Italy has to focus on herself, upon national reconciliation, on spreading the benefits of industrialisation, on raising the standard of living across the country, on creating an Italian nation out of disparate parts, and in tying those parts into an Italian ideal.

Italy is going to be a curious country, with Florence becoming a permanent stand-in for Rome, perhaps as Bonn seemed to be doing for Berlin in the many decades of West Germany's life. The rail network that develops is going to reflect this, with heavy freight lines bypassing Rome and instead tying in Ligorno and Pisa far more than OTL. Industry is going to grow up around Florence far more than OTL, the S Tyrol is going to be more developed as the government ties it into the state at an earlier date, whilst border fortifications in Trentino/Gorizia might even resemble a defensive wall of forts.

The Italian Navy won't consist of an expensive series of white elephants - or half-elephants anyway, as the ships could do what was intended when built, but always became obselete quicker than rival nations due to their revolutionary concepts, which did not stand up too well to progress. Taranto is unlikely to be developed as a port, instead Genoa, Ligorno and a better fortified and protected Naples would be the Western end, whilst Venice would be developed earlier and quicker to defend the East.

Returning to personalities, I could well see Wolseley be rewarded with a dukedom, and indeed Victoria's Britain create more dukedoms for political and military figures than it did in OTL

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
13

Africa - West and East

('Luxury Fleet' by Holger H Herwig provides some of the background information for this section, whilst Ropp and "Small Wars and Skirmishes" by the Wargames Foundry provides other reading)

OTL in 1884 Germany would acquire its possessions in Togoland, Cameroon, SW Afrika and E Afrika and the Berlin Conference would regulate European colonisation in Africa

But without this conference, Africa is not ONE amorphous entity - it is instead several different theatres, just as Europe is. North Africa, West Africa, Central Africa, NE Africa, E Africa and S Africa could claim to be those theatres, and whilst they often impinged one upon the other, in their individual cases they could not be treated alike

There is certainly no Berlin Conference in this timeline - Germany after 1874 is slowly struggling back to great power strength, a long journey without interest in colonies, only indsutry, trade, peoples, and military might

Italy we have dealt with - or at least with Italy's OTL concerns, but that does not rule them out of having ATL concerns that will hereat impinge

I think overall France will probably not get involved in Chad, or in a thrust East towards Fashoda, whilst Britain, without Egypt but with a stronger more earlily-unified S Africa will focus more on that part of the continent

France will do its OTL thing in W Africa, as will Britain, but one could certainly imagine another power coming in where Germany is not, and maybe an Italian Togoland is not unfeasible

Cameroon would probably see a mix of residual Portuguese interest, French interest from the South and British from the West divide it

I could certainly see Britain in SW Afrika, whilst Portugal pursues Barotseland (OTL Rhodesia) and unifies their "rose-coloured strip"

Zanzibar would remain independent, with its mainland territories in Tanganyika

Madagascar is thus thrust into the limelight of alternate history, and with comments on French over-stretch around me, I am thinking that imperial France merely enforces the protectorate, with the basing cessions for the French fleet

This would leave Egypt with dominion over a swathe of the E Sahara interior, whilst the Sokoto Caliphate probably also survives as Britain is not motivated to intervene due to the absence of French forces pressing East

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
14

The 1890s draws towards an end in the Far East with the following situation :-

- independent Korean empire
- Formosa annexed by Russia
- France in Indo-China, Hainan and Kwangchowan plus Port Arthur
- Kiaochau and Hong Kong are British
- Ningpo is German

The Philippines, Guam, Marianas and Carolines are Spanish

Russia still owns Alaska
At some stage there would have been an Anglo-Russian border agreement
Say this makes OTL borders exist, then at the moment there is a RUSSIAN gold rush in the Klondike

Britain rules Canada, which includes British Columbia and Vancouver
Britain also rules Oregon, which would be the OTL US states of Washington and Oregon, as a colony

California belongs to the CSA as its entire W coast

Hawaii is an independent and united kingdom

Britain, in a closer imperial rivalry to France, has probably expended more energies in the East Indies and perhaps here owns dominion over Aceh on top of OTL holdings

Calcutta has probably been more developed even than OTL, with India being a major provider of regiments as "Imperial firefighters" - this would make it harder to move the capital away, and also would mean that E India has a stronger gravitational pull on policy

Can one assume Burma and Afghanistan worked out as they did OTL ? I think Afghanistan has to for strategic reasons, but think that a rump Asa kingdom (an inland Burma) might well here continue to exist due to British focus elsewhere and no need to kill it off

The Philippines rises up against Spain, and a group of revolutionary leaders declare its independence

CSA, Russian, Japanese, British and French naval squadrons converge on the Philippines. The Carlist governor calls upon France and Britain to honour their treaties with Madrid, causing much confusion and soul-searching in London and Paris


This is the point where the timeline starts off again...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
What really needs to be examined is the position of Italy - and here I know least, mainly because I never came across a book that really cared about Italy in Africa.

The best book I've read about this topic is "Italiani in Africa orientale" by Angelo del Boca; unfortunately I could not find an english translation, but maybe you'll have more luck.

I still don't entirely understand how Italy acquired Eritrea in OTL

IIRC, the whole italian expedition in the red sea was promoted by Great Britain, which actually not only invited the italian goverment to settle in the area, but also helped dealing with Egypt, which the area belonged.

Great Britain invited the italians in for two reasons: block the french expansion in the area (they already had Gibouti) and have help against the Mahdi. The british could not act in first person since they had already troubles in Sudan and didn't want to anger the french (we are just few years before Fashoda).
So 5th February 1885 a 1500 men strong force landed in Massawa and took possession of the town. The egyptian garrison accepted the fact and was later sent back to Egypt.

In the following years the italians expanded the area under their direct control up to the whole Eritrea. This led to several "frictions" with Abyssinia until the treaty of Wuchale, which recognized the italian soveraignity over Eritrea (the Dogali defeat was played over his real importance for political reasons).

This is what happened OTL. But in your timeline, Grey Wolf, without a sudden reconciliation between UK and Italy, the whole Red Sea is out of question for Italy. Great Britain would occupy those region herself or convince another minor power to go (Belgium, maybe?).

But Italy is still going to have ambitions. Maybe they do attempt to make a move on Tunis, using the usual European excuse of protecting its citizens or business interests from some internal event. If so, Egypt will send its fleet to Tunis, and Italy will be faced with going to war against the Ottoman Empire, no doubt finding that this includes France and Britain as well

Again, OTL the occupation of Lybia received a kind of green light from UK, which feared could be conquered by Germany.

I agree that Italy will try to set up some colonies, but to do so will have first to gain some other nation support. For example italians could collaborate with Holland submitting Aceh and gain a foothold in the Andamane islands, the real prize being Thailand, of course.

Italy has to focus on herself, upon national reconciliation, on spreading the benefits of industrialisation, on raising the standard of living across the country, on creating an Italian nation out of disparate parts, and in tying those parts into an Italian ideal.

I agree completely. Consider, though, that without Rome and Sicily the irredentistic movement is going to be stronger than ever. OTL at the turn of the century was slowly disappearing, but ITTL ... Irredentism, beside, was quite a trasversal movement that had supporters in most political parties. My guess is that ITTL Italy is going to become an highly nationalistic state, like it has never been OTL, with a strong anti-allies sentiment. For sure Italy is going to join any alliance that will allow her to get back Sicily and Rome.
 
Hi Grey,

Portugal getting the Pink Map area will probably butterfly away the Republic. Without the OTL 1890 ultimatum, Republicanism will stay marginal in Portugal for the foresseable future (unless there' another event that rises its popularity).
Keep it up!:)

Best Regards,
Archangel
 
just some idle thoughts for you

Doesn't Spain have residual rights in Africa as well that could be exploited by the Carlists... from the Treaty of El Pardo with Portugal. The coast of Africa between the Ogooue and Niger Rivers. If Germany is not a factor perhaps Carlist Spain can be induced to exercise its claims more forcefully at least as a protectoarate say if not an outright colony over Cameroon. And if they are active there they could set up shop in Togoland as well to separate the French from the British. Nachtigal afterall operated initially out of Fernando Po. to establish the German presence with the Ewe of Togoland and the Douala's.

As to Alaska, i'm surprised it lasted this long. but the klondike is a British Canadian rush not a Russian one...there may be some minor strikes west of 141 but the action is on the Br/Canadian side...expect them to push forcefully for a resolutionof the border at that time at the latest...They will not be nearly as accomodating to Russia as they were to the Americans...

They will want to acquire the entire littoral strip if they can either by usurpation ( Given the Russian history, there is likely to be few if any there in the way of Russian settlers... they will be swamped by the first wave of Br/Can/ and CSA prospectors) or negotiated purchase to control the influx of this swarm of prospectors...

The border will not take its historical course but more probably follow the British proposed interpretation, which would probably go to international arbitration and the Brits Canadians would then push fo sale of the littoral strip being rented by the HBC as an alternative to establish what they would percieve as adequate control of the unruly mobs descending on the Klondike..

While there may be Russians descending on the colony its a long way across the North Pacific. Problems of supply are still manifest.
 
16

AuroraBorealis, some very interesting points you raise about the NorthWest Confederacy and its inter-relationships

I would ask first - what is the post-war state of the Union rail barons ? Might it not actually be that Washington has to take direct control of the railroads ? This could probably occur during the war, as a necessity of providing defence, and then in the chaotic immediate postwar period. No doubt the rail barons would be compensated, and no doubt soon come into their own again with new lines, but the Union government, I think, will retain direct control of the most strategic lines, seeing them perhaps as an analogue to the major rivers and thus a defence requirement

If you look at British capital eventually winning out in the CSA, after Richmond falls out with France, then CSA railroads underpinned with British money would make sense in expanding into the NWC, to their markets to CSA ports, where British money has again (I remember I mentioned this) led to the development of CSA shipping companies of some impressive size

Don't forget, that in OTL, British capital WAS doing a lot of this in the USA, so its just changed focus, and in so doing has enhanced both the CSA-British relationship, and also the value of the CSA in NWC eyes

Now, some people have said that culturally etc the NWC is most closely aligned to the USA and would never join the CSA, but even to a non-butterfly fanatic that is ignoring the fact that the course of history has been changed. In the immediate aftermath of the War of Southern Independence, the NWC went its own way, with a Democratic hand on the tiller, and a backlash against Union stooges who had been run from Philadelphia.

Over the period of their independence, the NWC would see the USA as a potentially revanchist power, and the CSA as a model to follow. However, the collapse of the economy is felt the most strongly in the NWC - I'm intending it to be at a time of economic downturn generally, where the NWC is shown to be most out on a limb. A lot of its capital projects would be in CSA hands, albeit often with British capital underpinning it, whilst as a destination for investment in its own right its more a target for the British out of Canada, than a welcoming recipient.

If the British made noises to consider direct annexation (and one could imagine that there are direct debts to British, or Canadian banks, and to Canadian state institutions) then I cannot for one moment see the NWC leadership considering assumption into the British Empire. They are, after all, Americans !

And the deal with the CSA is not so much that they will be swallowed up, because the CSA is built on the sovereignty of the states. Thus the NWC states swap one confederal government for another, but retain their rights and sovereignties. It won't be universally popular, especially in those areas of Ohio still smarting from the recent internal conflict, but its a better deal than being swallowed up by Canada.

Note - Utah and New Mexico Territories were ceded to the CSA, North of that line ended up after some haggling as territories of the NWC, California tried to go for independence but eventually was assumed into the CSA

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Nitzkrieg said:
Among the many things already stated, I still see a problem in your Great War. At the time, Pan-Germanism was increasing in popularity. A war against non-germans, I suppose, would only strengthen this sentiment.

Also, King Ludwig II was not especially, er... gutsy or clever as a leader. I highly doubt he would take it on himself to encourage a rebellion mid-war. It simply wasn't his character, and I doubt the POD would effect that especially.

Well, Pan-Germanism is alive and well at the start of the war, and maybe the moves towards a full and federal empire are being made whilst things are looking good.

Nowhere starts to fall away from this until the war turns definitively against the German alliance. Britain had probably been negotiating with malcontents in Hannover, the remains of the Hannoverian nobility etc, but by this time in the war there would be a strong underswell of discontent due to all the hardships. Hannover had been coerced into the empire in 1866, whilst the Southern states are in alliance, an alliance controlled by Berlin, and one which they can see leading inexorably to the extension of the empire...except that this requires victory as a prerequisite.

The British landing, together with the failure of German tactics in the West, would bring all the discintent to a head - both separatist and social. I don't particuarly claim any great political skills on Ludwig's part, but he had one thing and that was Bavarian patriotism. In OTL he hated that Bavaria was a mere satellite of Berlin within the empire, and here he is an independent ruler, charged with leading his people. A strong anti-Prussian sentiment would have grown up, and it would take little to step forward and adopt this as a symbolic leader, whilst his ministers and generals ensured that their hold on power would not be swept away by the mob, and that Bavaria in retaining her independence, and repudiating the German alliance would remain ruled in the same way as previously

Its neither his character or the POD at play here, its his beliefs and the events of the war itself

Best Regards
Grye Wolf
 
stevep said:
Some interesting ideas here but a couple of further queries.

a) Your comments in the post on slavery may solve that problem for the CSA in terms of its external relations. However it does generate a new one. If the slaves are freed there are a lot of new workers able to move and looking for employment. This is potentially going to cause a lot of resentment, especially in the NWC where a lot of the 'free soil' feeling was I believe that they opposed compertition from black workers. This is not going to differ greatly whether those workers are slaves or poorly paid free labourers.

b) After a bitter multi-year war, much of it fought over their core industrial territories France seems to be emerging as a highly expansionst power. Taking control over territory in central and south America and the historical French Indo China plus more in the far east and presumably much of the historical expansion in Africa. The defeat of Prussia/Germany would mean that France has become the dominant power in western continental Europe which in itself would make it Britain's chief rival again. If it then started aggressive expansion, especially in areas where Britain has strong interests, such as Argentina I'm wondering while Britain isn't making a strong stance against it. Britain, which has a larger industrial base and wasn't subject to occupation, is going to be in a better position to oppose France encroachments on its interests and I can't see any way it will let France rival the RN.

c) I'm also not sure that Britain would seek to gain so much in the Oregon region. Although that could be a possibility after a long and bitter war. With the US so divided what's happened in Canada? Has it still Confederated or possibly still split into several states? Without the political or economic threat from the US I could see British Columbia possibly staying separate, especially if it expands southwards. If it has and a trans-continental railway built, probably the 1st in TTL, then Canada could absorb a lot more people. You might also see it contesting with the CSA influence in the northern NWC region.

Steve

Steve, thank you very much for commenting

I'll take it point by point, if I may, and please refer to posts I made since yours as they may cover some of the additional background for my answers

-a- I assume that the NWC can simply block most black immigration from the South, can it not ? I assume there will be places where they could slip over, and get in, but if any number did, then these places would be ideal to build a fort in. I certainly don't think the NWC is either looking for, or willing to accept, any large-scale immigration so would it not act to control this ?

I would imagine the NWC has similar concerns about European immigrants flooding in West from the USA, and would take action here ? Mutual agreements with Richmond and with Britain/Canada may also be useful

Over time, with the USA unable to promote Western expansion, a fair amount of OTL emigration there would fall off.

I see the NWC as being concerned to develop their core states, but less bothered about the territories to the West, where agreements with the Indian Nations there actually benefit them more in the immediate term. The Sioux and the Nex Perce make more sense as allies in these lands, than as enemies to be hunted down at great expense so that a load of foreigners can come and get some land. Britain also would be happier to have this state of affairs continue.

I'm not trying to set up some golden age here, and I realise that the NWC is going to have trouble from 3 likely directions out West - i) the Plains Indians such as the Cheyenne and Arapahoe who can come North from CSA lands, especially if they are being displaced, ii) Confederate adventurers heading into the NWC territories to trade, set up homes and create trouble with the Indians, iii) British, perhaps most likely coming East over the Rockies rather than South from out of Canada, doing the same thing

There will be disagreements, arguments and clashes, but that's life

-b- Direct confrontation with France is not going to be seen to be in Britain's immediate interests - instead they will compete by proxies, or by tit for tat. In this pattern, I see Britain's growing interest in the CSA, and Britain's determination to finish the S African Question once and for all, and force confederation in the 1880s. France is not threatening Argentina's core territories, rather her ability to expand, and though the war is a direct one (France against Argentina and Chile) Britain's response is an indirect one - eg taking full control of the Bolivian nitrates *(which in effect seizes them off Chilians, but at the same time denies them to any possible French attack, and secures existing British investment and advantage)

The two empires are rivals but not yet enemies, are capable of acting together tho as I said about the Balkans this can be as much due to competitive rivalry rather than to common goals.

I would agree that Britain would appear to be absent a bit from the late 1880s-early 1890s in this timeline, but that is the sort of background I wanted to spend these additional posts filling in. Africa, and the Congo for one, seem especially to be useful to fill this in

As for the French navy, the British obviously cannot affect how large Napoleon wishes it to be, and it must be remembered that under the Second Empire the navies of France and Britain were pretty much equal. In the decades after 1874, its obvious that Britain would have an advantage, having been able to devote more of its wartime budget to naval construction than France, but each new generation of warships begins to level the field again. I don't think Napoleon III, and Napoleon IV after him, would want to see France's naval star fall, as much for practical reasons and those of face, than as for fear or direct rivalry with Britain. Its about keeping up a certain level, rather than keeping up with Britain.

-c- I would think that Canada still confederates, and that the additional Oregon possessions are viewed as being outside of the immediate Canadian sphere, although no doubt some both in London and Ottawa would be thinking on the lines of their eventual assumption into the confederation

Regarding trans-continentral railways, I think both Britain and the CSA are going to complete these, the former aiding the Canadian confederation as a strategic requirement.

Canada could certainly absorb more people, especially the large numbers that in OTL emigrated from Britain to the USA in these decades. Canada would be a more natural home (as would a confederated South Africa) and the additional incentive of Oregon would also pull some that far.

Oregon would not be wholly a poor cousin to Canada since the Royal Navy is going to develop Portland as an important naval base, closer to California and to Mexico, and also to Hawaii which, whilst an independent kingdom, is never the less at the centre of many different imperial interests

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
19

Britain and Africa in the late 1880s and into the 1890s

This post addresses many of the ideas raised by Cornelius (thank you !) and also Steve's point that Britain seems somewhat inactive in this period, considering French activity

The background to Eritrea seems more of a confusion to European powers here. I certainly don't think that short of a direct attack, the non-British subdued Egyptians would abandon Massawa, and I don't think anyone is going to attack them to see if they do

This would make any Eritrean adventure confined to those areas under Abyssinian control, and I can certainly see the point of Britain in OTL encouraging others to occupy it as a counterweight to France in Djibouti.

In this timeline, it may or may not be that Britain sees a need to get involved directly - after all, if she does then its a major commitment, and possibly war against at least Abyssinia, and maybe even Egypt. The former seems an unnecessary waste of resources, the latter an impossibility given that the Ottoman Empire remains the suzerain of Egypt, and that Britain does not wish to give Russia or France an opening in the East

The idea of a Belgian Eritrea is intriguing, and may come out of the whole non-Berlin scramble for the Congo. Here, Britain with its South African confederation has spread protectorates out over OTL Namibia, Bechuanaland and the S Zimbabwe people. Portugal however holds onto its rose-coloured strip, but whilst her dominion is recognised by European powers, on the ground it is a case of small forts and trading stations, and agreements with the native peoples of the interior.

France is to the N/in the N of the Congo, perhaps contesting Cameroon with Italy who Britain may well encourage to take over Portugal's claims in coastal Cameroon as a block to French expansion towards Nigeria. Perhaps Italy is also pressing claims in the coastal Togoland region

Leopold II's machinations in the Congo are just as likely in this timeline as in OTL, in fact given German reparations for invading Belgium in the 1869-74 war Belgium may actually have greater direct power projection capabilities

But France and Britain are going to be more forthright, whilst in the East, Zanzibar and its satellites are going to remain in control. I can see Britain having an especial desire to take possession of the Congo, and whilst France is engaged in fighting China, Britain would have a chance to act more concertedly

I see a greater French Congo, a greater native rule in the North, the East under loose Zanzibari control, the South under theoretical Portuguese control, whilst Britain establishes complete colonial authority over the West and centre. This would be a major enterprise, and wuld increasingly swallow up imperial forces

As compensation for their loss, I could see Britain supporting Belgium in Eritrea, albeit without Massawa, so possibly only half the size of OTL which would make it around the same size as Djibouti

Italy in this scenario never goes down the Eritrea route - instead it makes a gamble on Tunis, loses when faced with the Egyptian navy (perhaps it could sink it, but that would mean war with the whole of the Ottoman Empire and Egypt, and probably British and French intervention) and later settles for coastal (only) Cameroon and Togoland colonies (about 33% of the former, 50% of the latter)

For the rest of Africa, I'm thinking that both Britain and France do most of W Africa as per OTL, but that Britain never overruns Sokoto, and France never pushes into Chad. There are alternative iniatiatives, the rest of Togoland and Cameron for a start, as well as French and British Congo

In the mid 1890s Britain fights a war with Zanzibar that probably lasts a couple of months rather than an hour or so ! As a result, Britain is able to annex coastal Kenya, whilst ensuring that Zanzibar eradicate the slave trade, not only from the island and coast, but from its Tanganyika/E Congo interior

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Hi Grey,

Portugal getting the Pink Map area will probably butterfly away the Republic. Without the OTL 1890 ultimatum, Republicanism will stay marginal in Portugal for the foresseable future (unless there' another event that rises its popularity).
Keep it up!:)

Best Regards,
Archangel

That sounds good to me :)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Doesn't Spain have residual rights in Africa as well that could be exploited by the Carlists... from the Treaty of El Pardo with Portugal. The coast of Africa between the Ogooue and Niger Rivers. If Germany is not a factor perhaps Carlist Spain can be induced to exercise its claims more forcefully at least as a protectoarate say if not an outright colony over Cameroon. And if they are active there they could set up shop in Togoland as well to separate the French from the British. Nachtigal afterall operated initially out of Fernando Po. to establish the German presence with the Ewe of Togoland and the Douala's.

As to Alaska, i'm surprised it lasted this long. but the klondike is a British Canadian rush not a Russian one...there may be some minor strikes west of 141 but the action is on the Br/Canadian side...expect them to push forcefully for a resolutionof the border at that time at the latest...They will not be nearly as accomodating to Russia as they were to the Americans...

They will want to acquire the entire littoral strip if they can either by usurpation ( Given the Russian history, there is likely to be few if any there in the way of Russian settlers... they will be swamped by the first wave of Br/Can/ and CSA prospectors) or negotiated purchase to control the influx of this swarm of prospectors...

The border will not take its historical course but more probably follow the British proposed interpretation, which would probably go to international arbitration and the Brits Canadians would then push fo sale of the littoral strip being rented by the HBC as an alternative to establish what they would percieve as adequate control of the unruly mobs descending on the Klondike..

While there may be Russians descending on the colony its a long way across the North Pacific. Problems of supply are still manifest.

Thank you for this - its very useful

I hadn't realised about Spanish claims in the Cameroon, so that may well make far more sense than Italy ! Or they could split it; I'd need to study maps a bit more

I can see the agreement you outline making sense for lower Alaska, definitely

I've been trying to progress the Philippines 1899 aspect (ie where the timeline got up to) but am not sure it works yet so won't post it

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Wouldn't the poor white folk in the Confederacy view Compensated Manumission the same way poor folk these days view tax breaks for the rich?
 
Wouldn't the poor white folk in the Confederacy view Compensated Manumission the same way poor folk these days view tax breaks for the rich?

Maybe, but I would expect their beef to be more to do with free black people anyway - they're still going to be free, regardless of how much the owner gets for them.

I suppose they would say that if no compensation then no manumission, and ignore the slight fact that there would be a risk of vicious slave revolts on the one hand, and international sanctions on the other

So, yeah, probably, but they're poor :) A growth in Confederate Socialism ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Well, I could post the Philippines events now, but am not happy with what I devised, tho maybe its the best I could do

What I really wanted to get sorted before I did so were :-

-1- The state of things in the New England + version of the USA
-2- The relations within the German Empire, and between it and its neighbours especially the S German states

and as The Kiat has pointed out, one needs also to look at

-3- The rise of Socialism

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Germany

The German Empire consists of Prussia, the North German Confederation, plus the Bavarian Palatinate, but minus Schleswig-Holstein

Its all a patchwork, but how does it work ? Hannover might well be expected to be in Britain's sphere of influence, after the role that British forces had in its "liberation" during the Great War. Britain's ruler is a cousin of Hannover's, and after 1874, Britain would help it rebuild, and develop and presumably sponsor parliamentary democracy under Ernest Augustus II

One can expect Napoleon III's France to have some interest in supporting the Southern German states against Prussia, but there is a lot of animosity there, recent enemies in the war etc, and perhaps only Austria would work

Austria and Bavaria, however, are going to be very supportive of the Papal State (OTL they retained embassies to the Vatican and influence there). In this, of course, they are going to be close allies of France, and there would certainly be a coming together of these countries

Hesse-Darmstadt would probably look to Britain, along with Hannover due to royal and court connections. The other states such as Wurttemburg, Baden and Hesse-Kassel could well end up in a British orbit

Russia also can't be ignored as a force, though direct access or influence would be less, and if they are looking at friendship with Italy then that would be their primary focus

- - -

Political considerations are one thing, economic ones are different. Could there be a separate customs union to that controlled by Prussia ? Would France advance one ? Would Austria or Bavaria attempt to form one ? Maybe Britain sponsors one which also includes Belgium and the Netherlands ? This could then form relationships with Britain, and with France and probably with Denmark also.

Prussian/German industry would be harder pressed from this, but they do have the ex-Bavarian Palatinate to add to the Prussian Rhineland/Westphalian industrial lands.

- - -

Belgium

After having been attacked/invaded by German forces in the 1869-1874 Great War, one could assume that Belgian neutrality is nullified, and that Belgium would thenceforth be free to ally with whom it wishes

The result of this would see it in a sort of loose relationship with Britain, leading to the 50% Belgian Eritrea of this timeline, and maybe to some other Belgian colonial adventures, perhaps in the S Pacific (it only takes a survey vessel backed up later by an armed sloop) or perhaps in W Africa

The Congo is an aim of Leopold II but here he is thwarted as described previously. Eritrea could be seen as compensation for this, but whatever small West African holding Belgium ends up with would be additional

Maybe instead of Germany pressing its interests in Palau or Samoa we have Belgium doing so ?

Germany may well end up with some sizeable Pacific force of cruisers, but aimed primarily at China, not interested in the Southern Pacific

This would probably mean that France, Britain and maybe Portugal split the NE New Guinea and the Bismarck Arch, and probably throw the rest of the Coral Sea islands into the equation too to fall out differently

- - -

Austria and Hungary both have coasts and fleets of some sort. Austria would be the more likely to try to recover a naval projection capability after 1874, and to build up the mercantile fleet based out of Trieste and Pola. Hungary purchased ex-Egyptian ironclads, and can be expected to only slowly develop its naval capabilities - presumably buying second-hand where it can, and by the late 1890s only having a cruiser building capability at the most at Fiume

(Note - Hungary's building capabilities and the development line parallels China in this period which seems reasonable)

Egypt

The Khedival line either remains as intended originally (eldest male of the dynasty) or develops as Ismail later hoped (primogeniture).

The Egyptian Navy is not formidable but orders a few new ironclads a decade, and at Alexandria is able to build smaller ships, and to maintain medium ones

There are various financial agreements with Istanbul, working both ways, and resultant from earlier Egyptian intervention. The Tunis Incident when the dispatch of the Egyptian navy caused Italy to back off would have added to those in place beforehand, and perhaps resulted in Ottoman payment where Egyptian units could be seen to be doing business for the Porte

Abdul Hamid's reign in OTL was, until the approach of the turn of the century, one where the navy came a very poor second to the army, and a neglected and dilapidated force. The Greek War, won on land by the Ottomans, would have shown up how far the navy had fallen, and Istanbul would be aiming to do something about its weakness

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The History of the World Wars

The First World War

The Great War of 1869-1874 saw Britain and France pitched against the growing might of Imperial Germany. After the defeat of Austria in 1866 and the breaking of Habsburg power, Berlin had formed an embryonic empire out of the North German Confederation, and brought the remaining German states, now including Austria as a kingdom, into a Southern League, closely allied to and dominated by Berlin. The placing of a Hohenzollern on the Spanish throne had been the catalyst for war, but it was plain to everyone that the real matter at stake was whether or not Germany got to dominate the whole of Central and Eastern Europe. It was equally plain to everyone that in the event of a German victory, the Southern League would be swallowed whole by the Empire, and that a colossus would bestride the continent from North to South, united under the German Emperor. Neither Britain nor France could afford to see this come to pass, and thus despite setbacks and defeats, they fought through to victory, seeing the Southern League dissolved, Hannover win back its freedom, the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein seized by Denmark, and Germany broken for a generation.

Allied to Britain and France was Carlist Spain, though it would more correctly be said that this was created by Britain and France, backing the Carlists in a civil war against the Hohenzollern King Leopoldo who was eventually overthrown. Germany's principal ally was Italy, in 1866 having been handed former Austrian lands in the Southern Tyrol and Trentino for firm allegiance to the alliance, and now fighting to break the power of France and enable Italy to take the Papal State and move the capital from Florence to Rome. But allied to defeat, Italy lost, and things remained as they were before.

A global dimension was given to the conflict by Allied attacks on Hohenzollern Spain's Caribbean possessions, drawing both Mexico and the CSA into the war, though eventually ending up with British annexation of Puerto Rico and a French protectorate in Cuba.

Russia remained neutral at first, taking the opportunity to annex its protectorates of Krakow and Galicia, but when German defeat became obvious, Russia, along with Denmark, declared war and invaded. Belgium, by dint of the German invasion of its territory in the latter part of the war, was also cast as an Ally, and in the peace treaty would gain from this by being able to cast aside her former imposed neutrality.


The Second World War

Imperial ambitions in the decades since the end of the Great War had seen tensions grow and alliances shift, and Britain and France were now only acting in concert as rivals, determined to ensure that the other did not gain an advantage alone.

The catalyst for the war was the Philippine Revolution, with native forces seizing power and declaring a republic, and international naval forces heading for the area to enforce their claims. Madrid's Carlist government reminded Britain and France that the Philippines was by law a Spanish possession, and that Spain remained on paper an ally of theirs. But other forces were at work.

Whilst Spain despatched reinforcements, and Britain attempted to form a Neutrality Patrol similar to that being enforced off the coast of Norway, France and Japan got together and agreed a joint policy, hoping to force the issue before other factors intervened. They landed in Eastern Luzon, defeated a Spanish force, and united with the rebels to march on the capital. In turn, British forces landed in the West to protect the Spanish Governor in his remaining enclave.

- - - - - back to the narrative - - - - -

A confused situation is made the more so by large Russian and German presence, the former seeking influence and rights, but not to the point of war, the latter's position increasingly affected by events in Europe. As the Neutrality Patrol off the coast of Norway collapses, Sweden declares war on the Norwegian rebels and invades, whilst British and German naval forces stare each other out.

In the Far East, French reinforcements run into those from Spain and both sides begin firing thinking that the other is attacking. Britain is able to buy off the Russians, promising support for their ambitions in the Spanish N Pacific islands, and against Japan, as well as the promise of basing rights in Sabah.

News arrives from Europe that Britain and Spain are now at war with France as the wheels of politics grind out, and Japan declares solidarity with the French, launching a joint attack on the Spanish Governor's position which is defended by British and Confederate forces. Added to this is a French attack on the remains of the British-led Neutrality Patrol, sinking both the British vessels and the Italian and Belgian ones which had remained with it. In Europe, British and German cruisers almost come to blows off the Norwegian coast, and hasty efforts are made to find a diplomatic solution. This is done, with German agreement to withdraw, both from Norway and from the Philippines, and British support for German action in S Tanganyika, abandoning Zanzibar to her fate, and getting Portugal to waive her rights in the area.

Belgium and Italy declare war on France, neither having much choice in the matter after the sinking of their Far Eastern Naval forces, whilst Germany officially declares her independence.

Emperor Salvador II of Mexico is a convinced friend of France and cannot see how near to a vassal of that country his is. He declares war on Britain, Belgium, Spain and Italy, though his generals are at least able to prevent him from including the CSA in that declaration, arguing that Mexico's army is no way ready to defend itself against the full-scale assault of the Confederacy.

Confederate naval forces visit Hawaii to remind the Queen there of Confederate interests, whilst off the Philippines, the Confederate naval squadron suffers a loss, the first to a submarine of any warship when the cruiser CSS Stuart is blown out of the water by a French submarine which had been carried to the location aboard one of the cruisers newly arrived from France.

Russia begins actions against the garrisons of the Mariana and Caroline Islands, but as per the agreement with Britain does not declare war on Spain, preferring to act as if Madrid did not exist and that the local forces need only consider their position and surrender to the Russians.

Action in Europe is undeway, with Swedish victories against the Norwegian rebels, and a French invasion of Belgium, which is halted before Antwerp by a substantial landing of British reinforcements. Hard-fought engagements in the Channel and off S Ireland, see Britain just about maintain a superiority over the French fleet

Diplomacy canters out of control, with the CSA declaring war on France, and Japan reciprocating with a declaration of war against Richmond. The Confederacy issues an ultimatum to Mexico, demanding that it formally declare the Caribbean to be neutral territory. Salvador II cannot agree, and soon the CSA is at war with the Mexican Empire, whatever the Emperor's generals may have hoped

French naval forces smash those of Italy and land troops in supposedly neutral Rome, coercing the Pope into hosting them as a French expeditionary force grows under his wing, ready to strike North at the Italian capital. British and Italian units fight together against the French across West Africa, and Italy even manages a landing in the rear of French forces in Eastern coastal Senegal

Hungary declares its neutrality, as does the Ottoman Empire and the N African states of Egypt and Tunis who acknowledge full Ottoman suzerainty over them.

British forces are soon active in Spain again, this time bolstering the Carlist army in holding back half-hearted French attacks across the Pyrenees.

Mexican and Confederate forces clash on the border, whilst Japan invades Hawaii and defeats the CSA naval squadron that had remained there.

- - - back to the article - - -

The war lasted from 1899 to 1902, shorter than the previous conflict, which had now been renamed The First World War (or the First Great War).

In global scope it was far wider than the previous conflict, but with Germany maintaining a delicate neutrality the actions on land were less intensive until nearer the end. France was able to eventually convince both Bavaria and Austria to enter the conflict, aiming the one at the British-backed League which had been created as a customs union but undeniably had political overtones, and aiming the other at Italy. Bavarian forces over-ran the S German states, most of whom surrendered and switched sides, but Hesse-Darmstadt, standing by its treaty of alliance with Britain fought to the bitter end and was brutally occupied.

Italy, already reeling from the French invasion out of Rome now collapsed under pressure from the Austrians, and only British aid, mainly rushed from India through the Suez Canal, enabled a defence line to be created North of Naples. Italian units in the North retreated to Lombardy and Piedmont, whilst French forces even managed to subdue Sardinia, proclaiming a protectorate.

The independent Kingdom of Sicily, fed up with French incursions into its waters, and with most of its trade with Italy interdicted by French cruisers, or sunk by French submarines which were beginning to be deployed in some numbers, asked for British protection. With war raging across the African interior, British and French forces were clashing on an ever-increasing number of fronts, and British strength was being hard-stretched, with South African, West African and East African units deployed to the maximum in the jungles and deserts of North and West Africa.

Canadian forces stood guard against the USA, but enough had been spared to turn the defence of Antwerp into a largely Canadian enterprise, and to free up enough British forces to effect a landing in Hannover, and to slowly build up an army there. Australian and New Zealand forces were already engaged in the Philippines, in an ill-conceived and ultimately disastrous landing in Araucania, part of the French protectorate Kingdom of Patagonia, and in seizing some of the French Pacific islands.

Thus, more and more forces were coming from India, landing in Southern Italy, as well now in Sicily also.

The collapse came swiftly when it happened. Mexican forces broke in a series of weeklong battles, and the Confederate army swarmed into the Northern states. Salvador II survived both a coup attempt by his generals, and a popular uprising, using French garrison forces to put both down, but had to flee the capital to Vera Cruz, where French forces from Cuba effected a landing in the face of Confederate efforts to disrupt it

Japan, rampant in the Philippines and dominant in Hawaii was stabbed in the back by Russia, the latter having taken its time to act in accordance with its agreement with Britain, and who now descended on Southern Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands in force, Russian naval power having been significantly built up and able to sweep the seas of Japanese forces, defeating their main fleet off Tsu Shima, and inflicting a second defeat off Okinawa, which was also invaded from Russian positions in its colony of Formosa

Japan's declaration of war against Russia complicated the international scene, but was followed shortly by those of China and Korea, the latter managing to land forces on Tsu Shima with the support of its small navy, in the absence of any meaningful Japanese force at sea.

Britain and Germany signed a co-operation agreement, and the British army passed from Hannover through German territory to strike at the hard-pressed French and Bavarians. There now followed the heaviest period of fighting in central Europe, with the Bavarians being broken by a massed cavalry attack at Ulm, under General Sir John French, whilst the French were slowly driven back.

The defeat of the rebels, French and Japanese on Luzon was the final straw. French forces were evacuated back to IndoChina, but the entry of the Spanish governor into the ruins of Manila was a massive blow to French pride. Austria took the opportunity to sue for peace, and was allowed to keep its conquests in the S Tyrol, with Britain over-ruling Italian objections, Italy being more or less completely subjugated to British control of its armed forces as British and Indian forces fought their way up the peninsular, liberating Florence and uniting with the remnant Italian forces in the North.

The Pope, faced with a massed artillery barrage of Rome, held out for one day until the damage and the angry demonstrations of the populace forced him to back down and declare Rome an Open City. General Buller led his army into the Eternal City, whilst the French retreated to the coast.

With a British and Spanish advance over the Pyrenees now gaining ground, and laying siege to French cities in West and East, Napoleon IV was faced with advice from his generals to negotiate the best possible armistice before the situation became untenable. IInstead, he abdicated and left the job to his young son, Napoleon V only just of age and his first act of state being to request an Armistice

That was the end of the majority of fighting. In the Far East, Japan sued for peace pretty soon after.

The Peace Treaty which ended the Second World War was signed in Brussels, the Belgian King delighting in hosting the defeated French Emperor and his delegation. The congress was expanded to include all European, and global issues, and would last five months in all. Its points can be summarised thus :-

- France to cede its West African colonies (Guinea and Gold Coasts, not Senegambia) to Britain, Italy and Belgium
- Italy to cede S Tyrol to Austria, with Austria paying compensation for damage caused in her campaign
- Baja California, Sonora and Chihuahua to be ceded by Mexico to the CSA
- Spain to be confirmed in possession of the Philippines
- Guam, the Marianas and Caroline Islands to be ceded by Spain to Russia, with Russia paying compensation for damage caused in their acquisition
- Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, S Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands ceded by Japan to Russia
- Tsu Shima ceded by Japan to the Empire of Korea
- Bavaria to pay an indemnity to the other S German states, especially Hesse-Darmstadt
- France to pay an indemnity to Belgium
- France to pay an indemnity to Italy
- France to pay an indemnity to Spain
- Hawaii restored in full independence, guaranteed by Britain, Russia, China and the CSA
- Sweden confirmed in possession of Norway, with a union of crowns
- The Pope to cede his territorial rights in Rome to Italy, but retain the Vatican as an independent state
- France to cede Nice and Haute Savoie to Italy
- France to relinquish her protectorate over Cuba and allow the republic to exercise full independence
- Germany confirmed in possession of the S third of Tanganyika


The Road towards the Third World War
1902-1938


The USA had avoided embroilment in the Second World War, its position squeezed between the CSA to South and West and Canada to the North making it an ideal subject for multiple invasions.

Her trade had been hit hard by the Norwegian War and the sweeping from the seas of Norwegian merchant marine, but had picked up more from Germany and Russia, its other main trading partners, who were looking for new markets with the dislocation to trade caused by war at sea in Europe.

The 1900s and the 1910s were a boom time for the USA, as it was for the Confederacy, despite repeated rebellions in its new territories, for Britain and its Empire, despite serious trouble emerging in India in the latter part of the second decade of the century, and for Spain, Italy, Germany and Russia. France struggled to pay off multiple indemnities and was only at last rid of them in 1920, having bankrupted much of her own economy to achieve the feat.

Mexico saw a series of civil wars, until eventually Salvador II appointed General Zapata as Supreme Minister with the power to control absolutely any and all parts of society. His ten-year reign was to see atrocities on a scale that Europe could scarcely believe

1918 also saw Louisiana become the last state of the Confederacy to pass a General Manumission Act, freeing those remaining slaves, the majority of them elderly, that previous compensated manumissions and the confederal birth law of 1904 had missed.

The naval building programmes of the Second World War had been followed by a naval building race between the victorious powers, until in 1909 they agreed the Naval Limitation Treaty. Chief among the signatories were Britain, Russia, China and the CSA. The treaty limited battleships to a maximum displacement of 25000 tons, and its largest weapon as the 12" gun, for a cruiser 10000 tons and 8", for a destroyer 4000 tons and 4", and for submarines a maximum of 8 torpedo tubes, and a 2" deck gun

The US trade boom lasted into the early 1920s seeing living standards outstrip those in the Confederacy, with radios, fridges and automobiles becoming the norm. There was a boom in the stock market and everything looked rosy

Russia had become increasingly dominant within the Chinese economy, taking over the running of banks, steamship companies and industrial concerns, especially within Manchuria and the North-East.

1924 saw a backlash and popular rebellion against both the Russians and the Chinese Emperor, soon followed by Russian Intervention and a conflict that fragmented and sucked them in, ending up in the China War, an early result of which was the Russian Financial Crisis as it became obvious that Russian forces were bogged down and the Russian stock market crashed

This brought about a collapse in confidence within the USA, for whom Russia was one of the largest trading partners. In turn, the US Financial Crisis of 1925 impacted upon Germany who was now getting it from both directions, Russia and the USA being its major trading partners.

1926 saw a CSA-inspired plot when several counties of Western pennsylvania and Western New York state attempted to secede and join the CSA, where the Old North-West was still booming, unaffected by the collapse of the US economy

1927 saw the Polish Revolt, one trigger being increasing casualties in the China War that seemed to be incurred more heavily among Polish and Finnish recruited units, than those of ethnic Russians

The Persian Civil War in 1927 saw Britain able to have a free hand to intervene with Russia occupied in East and in West, Britain supporting its claimant of choice and elevating him to Shah

By 1928 the German Financial Crisis is becoming a more widespread one, the effects of the Polish Revolt and a short sharp war between Hungary and Bosnia on one side and Serbia on the other leading to economic depression

The Cuban Civil War broke out in 1912, after years of bitter manoevring in the wake of the removal of the French protectorate in 1902. Freed of French oversight, rival factions battle it out, French landowners are driven out, and the country suffers an economic collapse.

1927 sees CSA intervention in Cuba, with a strong expeditionary force bringing an end to the civil war, forcibly restoring order, and brutally suppressing new revolts as they break out

The Vietnamese Revolt of 1918-1922 is put down only with great difficulty by France

1928 sees the USA, with its finances partially restored, crash again on the back of the general European Financial Crisis

The attempted secession of Delaware leads to a civil war with various forces emerging once form of arms has supremacy over the ballot box, not least those of radical socialism on the one hand and popular sovereignty on the other

Britain is worried but by now is also badly affected by the Global Financial Crisis

CSA intervention in the USA occurs despite British warnings. As tensions mount, the CSA abrogates the Naval Limitation Treaty, laying down new very large warships and rapidly converting others to a standard beyond that agreed in 1909, especially the submarines

1929 Northern US states request British diplomatic protections
Britain and the CSA agree joint oversight of the USA
There are uprisings everywhere against a US government that would agree to such a thing
President Lansing resigns, and is replaced by President Smith, a socialist who can connect with the popular fronts
Confederate forces withdraw from the South and West, where they had been invited

1930s

Confederate - British relations are patched up

Economic recovery is underway by 1932, helped by the creation of a British federal empire, where the dominions are granted seats on an Imperial Council which is like an enlarged War Cabinet and where the highest level decisions are taken

Indian Civil War 1929-1935 breaks out on the back of a long period of discontent and thwarted British plans. Due to mass Indian involvement in both world wars (1869-74 and 1899-1902) the Congress Party wants parliamentary democracy before dominion status, whereas London and the princes want a federal dominion first

CSA economic recovery is brought about by confederal Rearmament
- large naval building plans
- airforce
- motorisation
etc

Russia crushes the Polish Revolt 1931, the revolt having become the Polish War with French, Swedish and Hungarian unofficial aid helping the Polish rebels to hang on

Russia extracts itself from the China War in 1933, agreeing and forcing the Peace of Naniking, whereby China will be governed by an Emperor, with a federal council and a parliamentary assembly. The peace lasts 6 months before the civil war breaks out again

Chinese Civil War 1934 +
Is still underway in July 1938 when WW2 erupts

In the CSA 1936 sees the Progressives come to power (think OTL Fascists as in Italy)
They increase Rearmament spending (which is already high), institute confederal building plans (aided by Progressive majorities in the states who vote them powers), and carry out enforced Americanisation of the Southern ex-Mex states

CSA interference in the USA erupts again after 1936, with support for the Progressive Party there, and constant efforts to undermine US President Garner in the South and West

The CSA clash with Britain seems to be a small thing, with Britain refusing to accept a Confederate-German plan for "regulation" of US mercantile trade. President Garner is relieved to be able to reject the Confederate plan, but CSA Progressive leader, President Long declares war on Britain

Underlying World War 3

China is in chaos
India is a mess
Russia is only just recovering and immediately declares neutrality

Germany had become a friend of the CSA, not least because of German interests in the USA and the choice of co-operation with Richmond to defend and enlarge these
Berlin supports the Confederacy over the agreement that Britain rejects, and upon the CSA declaration of war it is obvious that Germany is in the enemy camp from Britain's point of view, tho her actual actions are unknown

France since 1902 has seen Napoleon V spend his reign rebuilding. The indemnities were only paid off by 1920, leaving the country almost bankrupt. France began a slow recovery but was smashed back by the European Financial Crisis of 1928. Social revolt was put down in Paris and other major cities and a military strongman, the Duc d'Auerstadt, ruled as Prime Minister from 1931-1936. Th country was finally recovering and beginning to rearm, and in 1937 the Popular Front (French version of the Progressives) won the elections

Spain had seen King Juan III die in 1887 and King Carlos VII pass away in 1909. His son became King Jaime, and Jaime's son succeeded his father as Carlos VIII in 1931. Spain has spent a lot on building on its empire, in Rio de Oro, Rio Muini/S Cameroon, and especially in the Philippines which have been reinforced, had a great deal spent on the infrastructure, seen new fortifications built and the navy expanded with an emphasis on large cruisers (under the terms of the Naval Limitation Treaty)

Italy has concentrated on fully integrating Rome and building it up as the royal capital. The financial recovery after the war was built on with a temptation to overspend to improve the lives of the population. The country was hit hard by the financial crisis of 1928 and slow to recover, only picking up in the mid 1930s with the panacea of Rearmament

After the death of King Leopold II of Belgium in 1909, his eldest son King Baudouin had acceded to the throne, with a vision to develop Belgium's colonies especially in West Africa and Belgian Eritrea. His death at the age of 46 in 1915 had left a widow but no children, and he had been succeeded by his brother, Albert I, who still ruled in 1938 having continued his brother's work and focused on colonial defence, the development of port facilities and the creation of colonial army regiments

The Ottoman Empire experiences an Oil Boom in 1932 +, with fields in Mesopotamia, Libya and Arabia all on stream, contirbuting strongly to the global economic recovery

Japan has seen civil war in the 1900s after the humiliating peace of 1902, and a military leader take power in 1912. He died in 1929, leading to a renewed civil war before another such man emerged as ruler in 1931, the Emperor ruling through him. By now Japan had become very introverted, with living standards below "the West" and a surplus population engaged in revolts, provincial wars etc, being banned from emigrating to British, Russian or Confederate territory, though some went to China to enlist in the civil war, and others to Mexico, Peru and to Patagonia


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Carlton Club, London
July 30th 1938


"War..." Sir Miles Hardwicke sat heavily in the plush armchair and accepted the glass of port that the steward brought round.
"Third World War", the young Earl of Euston tried it for the sound of it
"The fleet's gone to its stations", Charles Monroe was only a junior officer in the Admiralty, but through his family connections he had access to so much information that sometimes the First Lord would ask him what was going on.
"How did things come to this pass ?", the Duke of Clarendon was only a year or so older than Euston, but held a commission in the Home Army which was sure to be mobilised any day now, "We were always such good friends, before"
"Never a true friend where great powers interests collide", Lord Augustus Cavendish was only just walking into the lounge, shrugging off his great coat as one of the porters trailed behind him, "Richmond is now in the hands of Progressives, we haven't been able to trust a word out of their mouths for two years now"
He held a middle-ranking position in the Foreign Office, but was usually tight-lipped and taciturn about its business. One supposed that with war declared it all became something of an irrelevance.
"His Majesty is not going to like this", the Duke of Clarendon was on reasonable terms with Edward IX, being a near-contemporary of his younger brother, the Duke of Clarence, "The Dominion of Canada is going to be blown wide open"
"The Tsar assures us that Russian America will remain neutral and uninvolved", Augustus said, "Of course, he has his own problems, and has appreciated our stance upon them"
"War..." Sir Miles Hardwicke had drained his glass and was signalling the steward for another, "I suppose one will have to take a command..."
There were a few sniggers and raised eyebrows. Hardwicke was sixty, and the nearest he had ever come to conflict was being sent to man the garrison in the British Congo back in 02, but the imagined threat had never come to pass, Alliance forces winning the war, now termed the Second World War, before the intended invasion had taken place.
"The Home Army will begin recruiting Local Defence Volunteer Regiments over the next few weeks", Augustus' words were as much news to Clarendon as they were to Hardwicke, "The Duke of Abercorn has been given the commission to raise a force to defend the British Isles...just in case"
"You...you cannot be serious" old Viscount Bobbit walked with a cane and was gently lowering himself into his special chair, "The Americans would not dare!"
"Perhaps they would" conjectured Monroe, "They certainly dared abrogate the Limitation Treaty - and that was ten years ago, long before the Progressives came to power"
"True", Augustus nodded at a man he recognised as his equal, "Richmond had agreed the quotas in the aftermath of war when it was feeling exhausted and was near to bankruptcy. A quarter century later, they felt differently but neither we, nor Russia, China or Germany would agree to a revision...so they revised it for themselves"
"Shortsighted of us", Hardwicke snapped, "And today Russia promises us neutrality but is consumed by its own problems, China is no longer bound by any alliance and Germany has moved into the enemy encampment"
"We still retain Italy, Spain and Belgium as allies" Augustus reminded him
"Allies or targets ?" snapped the older man, "For any of them to count we would have to supply troops - just as we would for Portugal as well"
There was no arguing with that, and everyone let it pass. It was Viscount Bobbit who spoke next, after a moment of silence, voicing his own fears,
"I have substantial estates in the Confederation of South Africa. Also in Nigeria and Honduras... What is being done to protect those, that is what I want to know ?"
"South African forces are being mobilised" Augustus surprised them all with this information, "I remained at work until the news came in that CapeTown had agreed to declare with us... We are still waiting on Melbourne"
"Surely there can be no doubt ?" Monroe asked, "The RAN was included in mobilisation notices this afternoon"
"Thats the military, its the politicians we wait upon" Augustus told him, "Wellington is still dithering also..."
"No longer", the royal Duke of York walked into the lounge and raised his glass to them all, "Australia, New Zealand and Newfoundland have all declared war as of twenty minutes ago"
"Well, thank God for that !" Hardwicke was out of his seat, pumping the royal's hand, "Have a seat, have a seat"
As bidden Prince Edward took his,
"All eyes are on Delhi of course" he said as he sank into the plush upholstery, "Things have been so confused there that one just does not know what they will decide..."

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The Third World War
1938-1944


War declared late July 1938
Lasts until 1944
London savagely bombed 1942, kills King Edward IX

1938
Germany follows CSA in a declaration
Germany invades S German states and Hannover
They are rapidly over-run before Britain can even land an expeditionary force

On back of German success, France declares war ib Britain

Italy declares neutrality
Spain declares neutrality

CSA invades the USA in support of Progressive forces there
Britain counter-invades
Clashes between Confederate and Canadian forces all along the border are inconclusive
CS Navy sweeps Canadian forces from the Great Lakes, and a mixture of naval and aerial bombardment batters Canadian cities

The British Far Eastern fleet sweeps the saes of Confederate cruisers and merchant ships, but the situation changes with the French declaration of war. The French fleet soon engages the British in a pitched battle, after which both retire severely wounded. CSA reinforcements from the Atlantic retake control of the Eastern Pacific

India finally resolves to declare neutrality, to the immense fury of London

Confederate forces land in France and CS Bombers attack Britain

South African forces complete the conquest of Madagascar

Australian and New Zealand forces via the Indian Ocean and Atlantic arrive in Canada to bolster the defencews against full-scale Confederate thrusts 1940 onwards

South African forces attack Patagonia

Agustin III (II was titular) seizes power from his ailing father, Salvador II, and the generals, and agrees a secret accord with Britain. Mexico masses armies on its Northern borders

June 1941 Cuba rebels against its Confederate occupiers

Summer 1941 onwards, Confederate forces invade Oregon en masse

Confederate and British forces clash in central USA in a series of mass battles, tanks etc, 1941-1942

CS Airforces from France smashes British aerial defences 1942 and devastates London, killing King Edward IX

1942-1943 British rocket weapons strike France

August 1943 CS and French forces land in Southern Ireland, but are repulsed and surrender October 1943

CS naval blockade tightens, with submarines, cruisers and aircraft carriers interdicting British trade

December 1943 Canada surrenders after the fall of Ottawa, and agrees the cession of Oregon

Australian and New Zealand agree an armistice January 1944 i order to get their forces home from Canada

Confederate, French and German airforces devastate British cities throughout Spring 1944

US Progressives agree Pact of Incorporation into the CSA

CSA naval forces bombard British North Sea cities

Coup in London - Field Marshal Hough overthrows discredited civilian regime with support of the king

May 1944 Britain surrenders

- - -

The Peace treaty is not so harsh in its terms as it is in reinforcing the changes in the world order

- Restoration of Patagonia
- but South Africa only agrees peace if she can keep Madagascar
- German Empire absorbs S German states (but not Austria, which is an independent kingdom with S Tyrol, Carniola and Istria, and not Schleswig and Holstein which duchies are united to the Danish crown in personal union)
- CSA incorporates the USA
- CSA adds Oregon
- Canadian independence as a federal republic


Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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