OK, now I will shamelessly reproduce a list of facts that come from a "What If America" chapter. This list of facts comes with no interpretation from the author, and is used as the preamble to the rest of the "North-West Conspiracy" chapter. Now, before I do this, I will point out that none of the timeline I have written needs or requires or even uses any of this Conspiracy. Only the underlying facts, tensions and battleground that existed for it to be wrought on in OTL is of relevance here. And none of that is, as far as I know, open to challenge.
- - Clement Vallandigham, Ohio Congressman, arrested 1863 by General Burnside for supposedly making treasonous speeches, tried before a military tribunal where the federal judge advocate general controlled the case (acting as judge as well as prosecutor) and barred defence witnesses, ruled out testimony etc. Sentenced to imprisonment for treason but deported to the CSA
- - Indiana and Kentucky became Republican military dictatorships with manipulated elections and terror tactics used to retain political control (see below)
- - Some quotes from Thomas Fleming, the author
"By 1864 the Democrats of Kentucky and Indiana were a seething mass of rage in search of a target"
"If the Confederacy had made a general with the driving energy of James Longstreet or A P Hill commander in the West, Kentucky would have become a Confederate state - along with Tennessee"
- - 21st July 1862 Union general Jerry T Boyle threatened to arrest any Democrat who ran for office in Kentucky against the administration's slate
- - Republicans carried Kentucky in the 1862 midterm elections by stationing troops around polling stations, where in an era before secret ballots their commanders informed Democrats that they could not guarantee their safety if they were to vote, thus leading to many turning away without voting, or not bothering to turn up at all
- - Democratic Convention at Frankfort February 1863, Colonel Gilbert marched the 44th Ohio into the meeting hall and dispersed the assembly at bayonet point
- - 17 pro-Democratic newspapers in Kentucky were smashed up by mobs, whilst soldiers either joined in or watched with approval
- - Former governor and federal congressman John Morehead protested these tactics and was arrested and held without trial in federal prisons, subject to verbal abuse and semi-starvation until he pledged allegiance
- - Indiana - Democrats won control of the state legislature in 1862 elections, and would have refused to vote for the war budget. The Republican governor Oliver P Morton suspended the legislature and ran the state by decree for the rest of the war, using money Lincoln shipped to him from DC
- - The Indianapolis stat convention in Spring 1863 saw the meeting site surrounded by infantry and artillery with cannons trained on the speakers' platform. Cavalry roved the town and the state arsenal was under heavy guard. When Democratic speakers tried to speak they were interrupted and insulted by soldiers and Republicans seeded in the crowd, and when Democrats attempted to remove these they were themselves arrested and hustled off to jail. Cavalry yelling like demons circled around, frightening those on the periphery. Then when US senator Thomas Hendricks attempted to speak, 8-10 soldiers with bayonets fixed and a detachment of cavalry with sabres drawn closed in on the platform. Hendricks abandoned the platform, and the crowd dispersed in panic
- - Summer of 1864 a guerilla war raged in Kentucky, which General Stephen Burbridge used terror tactics to suppress, murdering 4 Confederate prisoners for every one Union soldier or sympathiser killed by the rebels
- - "The war had generated a strong sense of separate identity throughout the MidWest. There was a widespread opinion that the two original sections of the country were jointly responsible for the ruinous conflict, with most of the blame cast on New England"
And that is without going into the response in these states to the Emancipation Proclamation
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The War of Southern Independence as outlined in this alternae timeline will have seen some significant differences. I am afraid that people don't factor this in. The above list is what DID happen in OTL, even with the factors that existed then. Add in to that mix the early fall of Washington DC, a Union which determines to go on fighting, a later alliance with France and Britain and the use of their forces in the continent, and the occupation of frontier states during the war by Confederate states and allies.
I would imagine that Lincoln, the Union army and the Republican party machine use even heavier handed tactics to hold onto, and hold down the rest of the old North-West. With Confederate raids, the attempted risings in place by Confederate sympathisers, and a general state of martial law and military rule, the stage would be well set
The defeat of the Union at the siege of Philadelphia is going to cut loose all Union-supported endeavours. Money from the centre will disappear, the armies will break apart, old vengeances will be acted out, and the forces long suppressed during the war will breathe in fresh air and break out on their own. Many a neutral, or even dispirited supporter of a failed Union, would look at North-West independence as a natural reaction. The war has shown that they are different, all that the federal government did was suppress them, and stamp on state's rights, and now they have a chance to make their lives anew
The states right aspect of this should not be overlooked. Indiana, Illinois wanted to run things as states first, part of the Union second, so in creating their own Confederacy in the image of the CSA they give back power to where they want it to belong. In the short term this is a successful move, empowering the people and enthusing them. In the longer term it leads to a weakened economic state that eventually leads to the NWC requesting assumption into the Confederacy
Best Regards
Grey Wolf