Southern Glory, American Fury

The War of Southern Independence 1861-1865

Introduction

The world of history does not consist of one POD followed by another POD followed by another POD. There are not only large decisions that change things, but many smaller ones. A battle lost could be won, but still be insignificant in itself. Only the later turn of the campaign would show one a determination from that beginning.

Thus, a 1961 POD for what we know as the "American Civil War" need not have won the war in an instant, or with a single stroke, but have set in motion a different, and radically so, set of campaigns. Despite what the authors of "What If" seem to assume, alternate history is not controlled by a single major POD, or in the writing of alternate history in the choice between different major PODs. Battles insignificant in themselves, objectives of campaign that would neither win nor lose the war, the vagaries of fortune, the appointment of commanders - none of these would win or lose the war in themselves, but any of them could set in motion a longer series of events which would culminate in an outcome different overall from reality

The Grand Sweep of Things

Washington falls, and Britain and France recognise Confederate independence. Later naval actions by the Union leads to a crisis where the European powers decide jointly upon active interference in order to force the North to the negotiating table.

Anglo-French naval, land, and logistical assets are dedicated to the war effort, though France is paying as much attention to Mexico as to further North, something that can be better accomplished with the assistance of the CSA, and by the distraction of European governments in the war in the North.

Eventually Philadelphia is brought under siege and the Union surrenders. Not only is the CSA recognised but Maryland and Kentucky are ceded as well, whilst the Territories of New Mexico, Arizona and Oklahoma are also let go.

The Aftermath

The Union is riven by internal dissent, and sees the secession of the Old North-West into a Confederacy of its own, that soon seeks alliance with the Confederacy

California declares independence amidst all this

CSA veterans are taken into French employ and help stabilise Salvador Iturbide on the Mexican throne after the death of Maximilian

Britain is making moves into the Oregon Territory, now no longer contiguous with the Union, whilst at the same intriguing within California

CSA leaders are desperate for an Eastern coastline and pressurise France to work co-operatively with Britain over California. Soon, a CSA-French army is attacking the independent republic from one side, forcing the British to belatedly accept the CSA's prior claims and to agree that it is acting in their interests

In turn, Richmond recognises Britain's dominion over all of the original Oregon Territory

The NW Confederacy ends up with residual rights to the territories East of the Rockies

Europe

With France so thoroughly committed in N America, Bismarck does not agree that (N) German forces should stop short of Vienna, and the denouement to the Austro-Prussian War is a German assault upon the Habsburg capital.

Napoleon III attempts to demand that the newly victorious Prussians restore the Habsburg dominions, but Bismarck is aware that the opportunity may only come once. France dare not go to war with its armies already overstretched on the other side of the Atlantic, and Britain is heavily over-committed also.

Instead, the Prussian Chancellor acts to transform his victory into an overwhelming one. A new German Empire is to be born, including those German states defeated in the war as sovereign entities, and including Austria as a kingdom within it. The Crown Prince is won over to the glory of this idea, and manages to get the reluctant agreement of the recalcitrant Wilhelm I

Hungarian independence is agreed, whilst Russia is bought off with protectorate status over Galicia and Krakow

Britain and France force a European Congress to discuss these arrangements, but the only changes agreed are that the Southern Tryol and parts of the Trentino should go to Italy, a country now greatly enlarged after acquiring Venetia in Prussia's gift at the end of the war

The Papal States, such as they are (reduced to the area of Rome) remain inviolate, and Italy continues to be ruled from Turin

The Spanish Crisis

Spain's attempt to reabsorb Santo Domingo into its empire, and the costly fiasco of the Guano War fought against Peru, have left Queen Isabella's government exposed. The beginnings of a Cuban Uprising, and the clear interest of France in events going on there further alarm the opposition in Madrid, and a military coup is launched

By this time, British rule across Oregon is being accepted, and a system of governance imposed, whilst some British units remain in California at CSA request and expense.

France similarly has been able to downgrade its numerical involvement in Mexico, paying instead for veteran CSA units to perform services there, and able to rotate its elite units between Europe and Mexico. Some French units remain in California, whilst instructors and much logisitical capital remain within the CSA

1868 and the War of the Triple Alliance is well underway, a series of alarmist reports out of Paraguay worrying European governments, especially Britain, that their nationals are in serious danger from an increasing paranoid Lopez regime.

The generals in Madrid search for a monarch to replace the unlamented Isabella, a debauched woman whose cousin-husband is unlikely to be the father of many, if any, of her children. They settle on a Southern German prince of the Catholic branch of the Hohenzollern dynasty, and make overtures to him

Napoleon III condemns these and speaks of encirclement and veritable acts of war, but Bismarck is concerned that any climbdown on Germany's part would be seen as a sign of the weakness of the new Empire. He is able to play the old Emperor, and make it appear as a matter of honour, and Wilhelm I duly demands that no other nation interfere in the sovereign deliberations of the Spanish, and that French accusations against his country are the height of dishonour

Britain has dispatched a sizeable fleet to the River Plate, a fleet that has remained sizeable and in being during and after the war in N America.

France has a fleet off Cuba, ostensibly to protect the rights and property of Europeans, but already engaged in smuggling weapons to the rebels, Mexico proving a useful staging post.

The generals in Madrid are now very worried that their decision may prove to be a very bad one indeed, and attempt to get the Hohenzollern prince to withdraw, but it has become a matter of honour for him now also, and Bismarck is the first to support him in this

Archduke Karl Ludwig brother of Franz Josef, now king of the German Empire sovereign kingdom of Austria, visits Nice on holiday, but disappears from view for two days, during which he has secret talks with the French emperor and his advisors. He later reappears, complaining of flu, and takes a sealed carriage back to Vienna

Prince Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen arrives at Barcelona upon a formerly Austrian man-of-war, now flying the German Empire flag out of Trieste. He takes the train for Madrid, throwing the generals into a quandary. Advisors sent by Bismarck accompany him

The announcement from Madrid of a date for the coronation hits Paris like as if delivered of a lightning bolt and its attendant shock. Napoleon III decrees that any such event would be an act of war, and a furious recall of military assets begins.

French forces in California and Mexico are even further replaced by CSA ones, with Paris continuing the subsidy to pay for them. The French fleet off Cuba receives marine reinforcements, whilst the main French battle fleet is ordered to concentrate in the North

London is in a panic. A victory for either France or Germany within Europe would be a serious upset to the balance of power, but if they are to fight, then Britain has to make a choice of whom to support. Despite strong pro-German elements within the royal family and court, the political governance understand that they have a very good recent history of military, logistical and political co-operation with France, and that a united front against Germany might even be enough to prevent war

London issues its own ultimatum in the wake of Napoleon III's, calling for common sense to prevail, and for Leopold to reconsider his acceptance of the Spanish throne

Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen is crowned King of Spain

France and Britain declare war upon Spain and the German Empire

The Great War 1869-1874

France immediately descends upon Cuba, uniting with rebel forces, and controlling the seas so that the small Spanish naval force already there cannot be reinforced from Spain

The British fleet returning from the River Plate lands an assault force upon Puerto Rico

The war in Europe takes longer to start, as frontier feeling out of the enemy, and hurried mobilisation and deployment take the place of any major moves in the first few weeks

French forces, already mobilised on their return from N America, are able to enter the Basque Country, whilst the French navy blockades the coast in support. A Carlist rising is encouraged, and soon Madrid no longer commands any of the Basque provinces as the Carlist government proclaims Don Juan de Borbon, Count of Montizon as King Juan III of Spain, under the protection of French forces

Intense diplomatic activity surrounds Italy, with Germany attempting to transport troops and supplies by sea to Spain via the Adriatic, but Italian patrols increasingly taking on a threatening attitude. Berlin wins over French attempts, by promising support for Italian annexation of Rome, something Napoleon III's government can never consider. In addition further territorial cessions in Gorizia are made to Italy by Austria (German kingdom), under coercion from Berlin

Italy declares war on France and Great Britain

Hungary declares its neutrality, and purchases a number of warships from Egypt to protect its coastline

German-Italian forces penetrate the coastal strip and occupy Nice, but fail to make any breakthrough against French defences in Haute Savoie. Switzerland protests the violation of the recently agreed treaty not to fortify the area, but wise heads prevail and she maintains her neutrality

The Empire of Mexico declares war on Spain, Germany and Italy.

British army arrives in France to co-ordinate with their French allies

The French navy inflicts a crushing defeat upon the Italians and lands a substantial reinforcement at Rome to protect the Papal State

Spanish forces fail to make progress in a thrust into the Basque provinces. Carlist risings are now intermittently breaking out across Aragon and Catalonia

Don Carlos Maria de Borbon, eldest son and heir of King Juan III enters Barcelona as Carlist forces in the city hand it over to the French navy

Portugal declares her neutrality

A second British expeditionary force lands at Santander and Bilbao and makes common cause with the Carlist government and their French allies

German offensive into Alsace-Lorraine initially breaks against the forts, but a second wave breaks through and is only halted after five days of running battles, by which time the French army has been forced back a fair distance, tho now reinforced by the British

The first Winter of the war sees consolidation and entrenchment, the opening of the second campaigning season sees a major Anglo-Carlist thrust from the Basque provinces West into the Asturias, where royalist forces are hit by a rising in their rear as Carlist agitators in Galicia rise up. Madrid is able to bloodily crush this latter occurrence, and to stabilise the Asturian front. By this time, however, much of Aragon and Catalonia is also in Carlist hands, Prince Carlos Maria and his French advisors whipping together the various formations into a second army

The French fleet annihilates the Spanish naval forces off Santiago de Cuba as the latter, bereft of supplies, attempt to break out.

Puerto Rico surrenders to Great Britain and London appoints a Military Governor for the island

German forces restart their offensive on the Western Front, the first attempt breaking on Anglo-French defence lines, the second breaking through to the South-West.

Russia announces the outright annexation of its protectorates of Galicia and Krakow

The German army attempts to wheel round South of Paris, but a British attack into the Saar, and a French defence in depth results in their stalling and falling back.

Carlist armies in Spain join up, and together with their British, and by now somewhat reduced French, allies, advance on Madrid

Mexican and CSA forces (the latter operating as Mexican auxilaries) land in Cuba and join up with the rebels. Many CSA officers are disgusted to find themselves supporting a mixed bag of blacks and mulattos, many of whom are escaped slaves but a direct order comes from Richmond to remain in place

Madrid falls to the Carlists, with the generals and King Leopold fleeing to Seville

Britain is able to withdraw some of its units, replacing them with those called up from India much to the confusion and perplexity of their Carlist allies who don't know what to make of a sudden influx of brown-skinned soldiers

Germany attempts to break out West once again, but the French defence lines have now become full-scale trenchlines, and the front soon degrades into trench warfare

The second Winter of the war occurs, with the only major action being the French coastal bombardment of German-Italian positions in Nice and along the coastline

Spring 1871 sees an attempted Franco-British assault on the Western Front, Napoleon III having grown concerned at declining French morale which was seeing only defensive actions, and no attack. This attack however breaks upon the German trenches with great loss, tho a follow-up German assault gets nowhere either

Italian forces smash their way into Rome and heavy street-by-street fighting occurs against French and Papal forces, the ordinary Roman caught in between, his loyalties divided, his offers of help largely spurned by both sides

The CSA declares war upon Spain (only) and despatches a fleet with marine forces to Cuba. This creates a diplomatic crisis with both France and Mexico who are revealed to have signed a secret agreement between the two of them that Cuba would be an autonomous province of Mexico under French protection. The direct involvement of the Confederacy is unwelcome and complicating

Germany sends reinforcements to Nice and these succeed in breaking through and threatening Marseilles until the French fleet's bombardment of the coastal route results in their having to withdraw from lack of supplies

During this whole period, much of the new German Empire remains unreconciled to its loss of independence, chief amongst them the soveriegn kingdoms of Austria, Bavaria and Hannover. Minimal compliance with Berlin, popular dissent, and the growth of underground movements have marked their co-operation in the common war effort of the empire

Spring 1872 opens with a shock as Germany invades Belgium, wheeling its forces around the flanks of the Anglo-French army and rapidly over-running the coast before turning back towards Paris. Only heric resistance, and a rapid redeployment of troops allows them to hold off the Germans, but the trenchlines are abandoned, and the Germans advance West as well, finding the new Anglo-French defensive line to be in a semi-circle around the North and East of Paris

The French fleet annihilates the remains of the Spanish off Ferol, and supports a landing by Carlist forces, relocating from the Basque provinces, which brings in turn a second uprising within Galicia. It is not numerically enough, and a full-scale civil war breaks out across the province

Britain has been forced to make increasing use of Indian regiments, and these are soon taking their place on the Western Front, in the new trenchline running NorthWest from Paris to Dieppe

Spanish forces on Cuba suffer a resounding defeat, after which the remaining Spanish units are now cast in the role of guerillas against a rebel government which takes charge in Havana. With the Franco-Mexican agreement broken by CSA involvement, the Cubans are able to play off their allies against each other and retain independence of action

The full weight of the British fleet together with elite units removed previously from the conflict and retrained, lands upon the Frisian islands, and penetrates into the coastal areas. British money provides a suitable impetus for a general rising within Hannover, and as news spreads across Germany, this is copied by a general rising in Bavaria, where nationalist leaders had only been awaiting an opportunity

British forces take Emden and occupy Oldenburg before advancing to unite with the Hannoverian rebels, now led by crown prince Ernest Augustus, son of the blind king, and a man whose extreme ugliness belies a subtle mind

As the war passes into 1873, the Spanish front stagnates as the recovering royalists are a match for the Carlists and Indians, an uneasy alliance which is made no better by the blatant hostility of both the Carlist king and crown prince

German forces complete the subjugation of Belgium, destroying those pockets that had remain viable with the assistance of British naval forces, now all deployed elsewhere.

British and German armies fight over Hamburg, Bremen and Bremerhaven, wreaking great havoc, but in a front which fluctuates to and fro

Bavarian rebels take control of Munich, where King Ludwig II renounces his allegiance to the Emperor and calls upon all Bavarians to rise up and support their renewed independence

Berlin announces the annexation of the Bavarian Palatinate to the Prussian state

German forces on the Western Front attempt to break out in the North, and towards Paris, but the Anglo-French defensive lines hold

As 1873 ends, a general rising takes place in Austria, led by the king's brother Karl Ludwig

Spring 1874 opens with a Danish declaration of war against Germany, and a Danish army entering Schleswig and Holstein, linking up with the British out of Hannover as the Germans fall back to establish a new defensive position

French African troops arrive in Rome, ferried by the French navy, and proving an exotic sight as they bolster the defences before their commander decides to go onto the attack

German forces throw themselves into one final assault on the Western front, which carries them to the walls of Paris, but no further before British, Indian, and French forces drive them back

King Georg V of Hannover abdicates and his son Ernst August II announces the declaration of Hannoverian independence from the German Empire

German forces fail to force their way into Munich, and suffer a number of mutinies and desertions as non-Prussian units make choices for themselves

Britain appoints a civilian governor for Puerto Rico

Russia declares war on Germany and invades East Prussia

The German army collapses, with political declarations in Hesse-Kassel, Hesse-Darmstadt, Baden and Wurttemburg adding to the chaos of Hannoverian, Bavarian and Austrian rebellion. Soon units are fighting each other, or even within each other

French forces retake Nice and advance to capture Genoa as Italian forces fall back as their German allies disintegrate

The commander of Italian forces in Rome surrenders when surrounded by Papal and French African forces

Sicily rises up in rebellion, two days later declaring her independence

Berlin sues for peace, an event which leads to chaos amongst the Spanish royalist army with her Prussian advisors. King Leopold abdicates in the name of Alphonso, son of Queen Isabella, but the Carlist King Juan III is crowned in Madrid, and most fighting ceases across the country

Armistice agreed, and Peace Congress begins at The Hague

Peace 1874

Denmark takes in personal union to the crown the provinces of Schleswig and Holstein

Austria (remnant), Bavaria (without the Palatinate), Hannover, and Wurttemburg are reconstituted as independent kingdoms, Baden as an independent Grand Duchy/Margraviate, Hesse-Darmstadt as an independent Grand Duchy, and Hesse-Kassel as an independent Landgraviate

Italy recognises the independence of the Papal State of Rome, and of the Kingdom of Sicily, and pays a substantial reparation to France and to the Pope

Juan III of Spain is universally recognised, tho the start of his rule is marred by Cuban independence (under French protection) and British annexation of Puerto Rico. Violent brawls and public anger against the British Indian troops leave a sour taste to the whole campaign

Germany (remnant empire) is to pay reparations to France, Belgium, Hannover, Hesse-Darmstadt, Hesse-Kassel, Baden, Wurttermburg, Bavaria and Austria

Russia's annexation of Galicia and Krakow is recognised by all, tho Russia must evacuate East Prussia, but is allowed to take capital goods and ships with them in recompense


Thus ends the first period
1861-1874

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The End of the Century

The 1870s

The CSA and Mexico enter a period of increasingly hostile relations, the Cuba business having destroyed all trust

France increasingly supports the Mexican Empire, and Richmond becomes estranged from Paris, relying instead upon London for all of its needs

Mexico's internal state is parlous in the aftermath of the war, with no reparations, no gains and the withdrawal of CSA troops leaving the door open to rebellion and republicanism. In return for exclusive contracts, and full basing rights, France opts to supply loans and troops to Mexico, a deal with the devil that Emperor Salvador had managed to avoid so far, but which now mortgages his country to France

Neither the NW Confederacy nor the (remnant) USA are doing at all well economically, European investment flooding into the CSA, and their own industries struggling to recover from civil strife, and struggling to refind markets external to themselves

France pursues its larger agenda by challenging Argentina over its policies in Patagonia, and by interfering and landing forces to protect the remnant Mapuche, citing historical interest (Oriele Antoine) and a moral right. French veterans from the war in Europe soon pour into the borderland, and Paris announces the new protectorate, initiating fullscale war with Argentina and Chile

1880s

War in the Balkans is an unexpected distraction from the Great Power norm, with Russia supporting Slavic ambitions and the Bulgars achieving veritable independence

British and French forces arrive to "mediate" but the Khedive of Egypt has already grasped the chance. Having a substantial fleet, after his invitation of the Ottoman Vizier, made in concerns about the imminence of European war, had led to the Porte not seizing his ships, he now attempts to intervene on behalf of his nominal sovereign

Britain defeats the Zulus then smashes the Boers, and subjugates the whole to imperial rule, using to do so a large number of Indian veterans from the Great War who have been deployed in theatre since

Independence for Romania is agreed, as is that for the principalities of Serbia and Montenegro, whilst a new Principality of Bulgaria is agreed, being the combination of basic Bulgaria with Eastern Rumelia in independent sovereignty

The Ottoman Empire is rocked by these Great Power impositions, and a movement for change grows up in many of its moist important cities

Egypt emerged with agreements for the Porte to cancel some and pay off other of its debts

Bankruptcy hits the NW Confederation and it petitions the CSA for annexation, which Richmond gladly agrees to. Philadelphia demands recompense, but a trade war between the enlarged CSA and the USA breaks out, fought in earnest by both sides

France is able to defeat both Argentina and Chile but at great financial cost and at the requirement to recognise an independent Mapuche kingdom which France must needs support for the foreseeable future

Uprising occurs in Bosnia-Hercegovina, as a result of Ottoman attempts to reimpose direct rule, including taxes. Hungary supports Istanbul, but Austrian intrigues, Serbian plots and Anglo-French rivalry for control of the situation lead to an international situation

Franco-Chinese war breaks out over Napoleon III's ambitions in Indo-China, breaking apart he by-now tentative Anglo-French alliance in the Balkans (which is as much rivalry as it is allied action) and forcing Britain to agree to Hungary's compromise of an autonomous Bosnian state under Turkish control

Unlike the previous example of Serbia, this is an autonomous MUSLIM state whose raison d'etre is not the destruction of the Ottomans, but rather to find a workable agreement with them

France smashes China, occupying Vietnam from Cochin China through Annam to Tongking, and also seizing Hainan island and a mainland port as bases, blockading and burning Fukien and Shanghai until Peking agree

Death of Napoleon III aged 80 in 1888. Accession of 32 year-old Napoleon IV

1890s

Short-term rallying of the US economy, boosted by agreements with Carlist Spain, Imperial Russia, Denmark and Sweden-Norway

Ohio Rebellion in the enlarged CSA put down by Confederate troops, but causing a major schism in political understanding as the poitical scene is riven in half by the implications

China-Japan War breaks out, in the middle of Chinese attempts to reform their military largely with the aid of Russia and Germany

Japan, with many French-built warships, fights an offensive campaign built around the recent French victory and achievessignificant early success

Russia sends out a battlesquadron and cruiser squadron to reinforce the Far East, and as Japan is winning battles in the North, Russia lands at Formosa, sending troops into the interior to deal with both Imperial Chinese forces, and Japanese advance forces, whilst making alliance with the native tribes

With British, French, CSA, and German warships now arriving en masse, Japan is forced to look for the best available peace. China agrees to the independence of Korea, and to recognise Japanese ownership of Okinawa, but any agreement over Formosa, or the ports that Japan has seized, is eradicated by joint European action. China has to agree to a number of concessions - ceding Formosa to Russia, Kiaochau to Britain, Port Arthur to France, and Ningpo to Germany. Japan will get nothing

Norwegian Revolt occurs. Britain, France and Germany send a Neutrality Patrol to deter Swedish aggression

The Philippines rises up against Spain, and a group of revolutionary leaders declare its independence

The Norwegian Crisis brings about the collapse of US markets, and a gigantic depression which soon consumes 3 out of 5 citizens in poverty.

Greece declares war on the Ottoman Empire over the question of a number of villages, but is soon bested in the field. A half-hearted landing on Crete with Austrian support is defeated by the arrival of a joint Egyptian-Ottoman force, and Athens is soon forced to sue for peace. Austria pretends it was never involved at all and withdraws its forces

CSA, Russian, Japanese, British and French naval squadrons converge on the Philippines. The Carlist governor calls upon France and Britain to honour their treaties with Madrid, causing much confusion and soul-searching in London and Paris

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Really interesting timeline!
Quite plausible, as far I can tell, even if the complete annexation of Austria seems a bit far fetched. Probably it would have started a war with Great Britain and France, even if they were already busy in the Americas.
Another point is Russia. Germany should have been courting the Tsar for his support or at least his neutrality since her only ally is Italy. OTL Bismark was very keen on maintaing a balance of power in Europe, ITTL he should have searched for an alliance with Russia as soon as possible.
The last question is about immigration. The immigration flux is directed toward USA, as OTL, or the CSA? And what is the confederate attitude towards immigrants? Or we'll see a larger european immigration toward South America?

Hungary declares its neutrality, and purchases a number of warships from Egypt to protect its coastline
So Hungary in the partition gets the Adriatic coast, minus Trieste and Friuli, or what?
 
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Really interesting timeline!
Quite plausible, as far I can tell, even if the complete annexation of Austria seems a bit far fetched. Probably it would have started a war with Great Britain and France, even if they were already busy in the Americas.
Another point is Russia. Germany should have been courting the Tsar for his support or at least his neutrality since her only ally is Italy. OTL Bismark was very keen on maintaing a balance of power in Europe, ITTL he should have searched for an alliance with Russia as soon as possible.
The last question is about immigration. The immigration flux is directed toward USA, as OTL, or the CSA? And what is the confederate attitude towards immigrants? Or we'll see a larger european immigration toward South America?

So Hungary in the partition gets the Adriatic coast, minus Trieste and Friuli, or what?

Hi there

Thanks for pointing these things out - I really want to try and make this a timeline with some purpose

Regarding Russia, I was having them have a position of benevolent neutrality, but later jumping in with everyone else when it became clear that Germany was losing

I intended Croatia-Slavonia to fall to Hungary, thus giving them the Dalmatian coast. Croatia was viewed as an integral part of the historic Hungarian state, and I didn't think Bismarck would be too bothered about Dalmatia, only Trieste and Pola being useful to Germany really. Why take on more than you need, especially if it comes with a load of Slavs and Italians, and makes Hungary angry ?

Immigration is a good question. Its quite possible that more would go to Mexico, and perhaps other S American states. Also to Canada, and into British Oregon, and California probably. You main question, tho, remains unanswered, I realise. I can imagine European capital setting up industry in the CSA, and thus some immigration of skilled workers and clerks etc, but these would probably just be settlement communities, rather than a precursor of mass immigration.

The USA is far worse off econmically, and although much reduced in size is still large by European standards (Greater New England Plus really).

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
My main purpose in this thread so far is to sort it out :) Criticism is welcome if constructive, and ideas for what else to include, what is happening around the rest of the world, and to whom is also useful

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Thank you very much to the 90+ readers so far :) If more of you would like to comment and make suggestions it would be very much appreciated

I realise I have moved some events in time, and removed others, but that seemed to be the logical Way of The Butterfly

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I believe your assessment of the Mid-west is strongly biased by the writings of too many Lost Cause scholars. The economy and culture of the region were strongly tied to the North East and in the pre-war elections only the extreme southern counties of Illinois and Indiana tended towards the South. The Copperhead movement had very little support in the industrial regions of the Mid West and there was very little chance of the region separating from the Union even with a Southern victory.

And while it was possible for California to be forcibly split from the Union upon a loss during the Civil War this too is unlikely.

As for Europe, I don't see Bismarck wanting to take so much from Austria. The debate over a Greater or Lesser Germany had been largely settled during the Frankfurt Congress (1848-1850) era. Victory Disease is possible but unlikely until Bismarck is replaced.

Benjamin
 
I believe your assessment of the Mid-west is strongly biased by the writings of too many Lost Cause scholars. The economy and culture of the region were strongly tied to the North East and in the pre-war elections only the extreme southern counties of Illinois and Indiana tended towards the South. The Copperhead movement had very little support in the industrial regions of the Mid West and there was very little chance of the region separating from the Union even with a Southern victory.

And while it was possible for California to be forcibly split from the Union upon a loss during the Civil War this too is unlikely.

As for Europe, I don't see Bismarck wanting to take so much from Austria. The debate over a Greater or Lesser Germany had been largely settled during the Frankfurt Congress (1848-1850) era. Victory Disease is possible but unlikely until Bismarck is replaced.

Benjamin

Well, its kind of essential to the timeline that the NW seccede, and I would think that with a Confederate victory the sentiments there would be swinging away from the Union.

As for Austria, I agree except for the following - German forces could very well have decided to take Vienna, and once there then the dictating of a peace settlement is very much in Berlin's hands alone. Now, up to this point its been a N German Confederation led by Prussia, but all of the combatant German opposition has been crushed, and now the Habsburgs have been humbled. Having the S German states and Hannover accede to the empire, but leaving Austria independent is going to look very dangerous, and one of the main arguments of Bismarck and co AGAINST incorporating Austria was the large NON-GERMAN population. Here, only Bohemia meets that, and its vierwed as a historic German land by many

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Well, its kind of essential to the timeline that the NW seccede, and I would think that with a Confederate victory the sentiments there would be swinging away from the Union.

As for Austria, I agree except for the following - German forces could very well have decided to take Vienna, and once there then the dictating of a peace settlement is very much in Berlin's hands alone. Now, up to this point its been a N German Confederation led by Prussia, but all of the combatant German opposition has been crushed, and now the Habsburgs have been humbled. Having the S German states and Hannover accede to the empire, but leaving Austria independent is going to look very dangerous, and one of the main arguments of Bismarck and co AGAINST incorporating Austria was the large NON-GERMAN population. Here, only Bohemia meets that, and its vierwed as a historic German land by many

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
It might be necessary for the timeline, but it just doesn't make sense. Not to mention, culturally the NW had very little to nothing in common with Dixie. To use something closer to your home nation: Ireland declares independence from the UK, suddenly because the UK lost the war Northumbria declares independence. Later, it asks for annexation by Ireland because it is struggling economically. Doesn't make much sense does it? You might be able to create a forced British "protectorate" in the Pacific that is very discontent for a long time before eventually gaining its own nationalism, but that does not work with having it annexed by the CSA. I understand the fascination with balkanized Americas or victorious CSAs but your scenario does not make sense for such a result. As benjamin said, the Copperhead movement had very little success and even if the CSA manages to secede that's not going to engender a sudden support for secession in the other parts of the country. The main draw of that movement of any time was peace, ending the war without losing too much. That might get more support, but very few of them will be happy if Europe's breaking off other pieces of the Union because they want to.

On the other hand, your developments in Europe make a lot of sense. While I doubt Bismarck would have been very happy with the taking of Austria(he still has his anti-catholic bias, remember) he would probably do it out of political necessity if the move on Vienna had already taken place.
 
As for California, if separated from the rest of the USA I don't see how it could remain in it. Independence would seem the obvious option, and then it would open the can of worms I tried to depict here

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
It might be necessary for the timeline, but it just doesn't make sense. Not to mention, culturally the NW had very little to nothing in common with Dixie. To use something closer to your home nation: Ireland declares independence from the UK, suddenly because the UK lost the war Northumbria declares independence. Later, it asks for annexation by Ireland because it is struggling economically. Doesn't make much sense does it? You might be able to create a forced British "protectorate" in the Pacific that is very discontent for a long time before eventually gaining its own nationalism, but that does not work with having it annexed by the CSA. I understand the fascination with balkanized Americas or victorious CSAs but your scenario does not make sense for such a result. As benjamin said, the Copperhead movement had very little success and even if the CSA manages to secede that's not going to engender a sudden support for secession in the other parts of the country. The main draw of that movement of any time was peace, ending the war without losing too much. That might get more support, but very few of them will be happy if Europe's breaking off other pieces of the Union because they want to..

You see, I'm not sure about that at all

The Union is going to be bankrupt and riven by strife, so if a group of states look and see that a more secure future could be gained by seceding in turn then the elements within those states could rise to the fore

Initially they are independent, and simply align themselves with the CSA for security reasons, mainly because the latter are secured by Britain and France at this period

Only later when economic factors bring about bankruptcy do they petition to rejoin the CSA in confederation

As for Balkanisation of the USA, this is actually intended as being ANTI-Balkanisation

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Regarding the North West, I think it should not be overlooked or misunderstood that the secession after the war comes after a very different war for the whole of N America. A war in which Washington falls early but the Union fights on, and which sees Confederate forces latterly bolstered by British and French would see a lot more agitation in the Old NorthWest. Events which went off half-cocked in OTL, and events of a more mainstream nature that Lincoln was able to keep the lid on with bully-boy tactics would have run away from a more beleagured Union government.

With Kentucky the frontline and fully occupied, there would have been much greater agitation in Missouri, and much harsher repression as martial law would be the only way to contain things. After the peace where the CSA annexws Kentucky, things would bounce back the other way in Missouri and the anti-Union forces would come into an ascendancy against a dispirited, defeated and bankrupt Union. Their leaders would be aware that this was only temporary, but that independence offers them the chance to throw off Lincoln and his cohorts and to seize control for themselves

As I said in a previous post, the idea is not that the NWC sets out to seek to join the Confederacy, but that due to its own circumstances it follows the CSA's example in seceding. In forming an immediate alignment with the CSA, and with their British and French allies, the NWC precludes a Union effort to forcibly retain them.

Another thing to note about the aftermath of the war, is the severe dislocation to much of the Union. Read about the War of the Triple Alliance (more or less contemporaneous) and how afterwards the VICTORIOUS Argentine states that had housed the armies, the headquarters and built up their logistical base solely to support the offensives suffered massively when this was all over. The Union is going to be in an even worse plight - its a defeated nation, but it has the same problems on top of everything else.

It is only a couple of decades later after a sharp economic downturn that I propose that the NWC and the CSA, now allies for quite a while, merge with the assumption into the Confederacy of the North-West states. It will not be seen so much as surrendering their independence to Richmond as in a merger of their joint forces. The NWC brings with it the rest of the Great Plains states up to the Rockies, territories that it has had difficulty exploiting but which under the combined state are much more likely now to be fully opened up. The NWC would also bring the results of its own independent diplomacy, including treaties with the Indian Nations that would be assumed by the CSA. This would have intriguing results of its own for the Sioux and the Nez Perce to name but two

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
To me, a lot of alternate history is about the balance of forces. Unless one is to plot the timeline out month by month, even day by day, then a broader sweep needs to depend on a larger-scale view. There is absolutely nothing wrong with doing it at a more micro level, and I would certainly recommend that some parts of any timeline should focus in closely on certain important events, but in order to cover a grander sweep one needs to step back and consider how the various powers involve balance each other out, where the gaps open to exploitation are, and what advantages could come into play if the balance shifts just slightly. In some areas they will be stale-mated, equal forces abutting up against each other, not necessarily equal in strength, but equal in effect when conditions, home advantage, defence over attack, allies and logistics all are taken into account.

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Regarding the aftermath of the Austro-Prussian War, I certainly think it reasonable that Britain and France would be taken to the brink of war with Germany, but due to a multitude of factors not go as far as committing to it. A European Congress is the usual method of seeking some kind of agreement, a rescuing of options from the gaping maw of conflict, and I think that the British and French, with their armies committed overseas, their navies mostly likewise, and their own lands only narrowly defended, facing an enemy triumphant in Europe and which appears to have the continent at its feet, would settle this time, and this far only, for picking up some consolations.

The results of this are to ensure the independence of Hungary (with Croatia) and the Russian protectorate status of Galicia and Krakow, whilst gaining some concessions for Italy above those already intended (S Tyrol and the Trentino on top of Venetia) but at the cost of guaranteeing the Papal State in Rome

This is seen by nobody as the end of things, and is probably more like the 1864 settlement where Austria and Prussia came to an agreement, but nobody expected it would last. Thus, in this context it would be seen almost as a repeat of 1864, just with different players. The momentum of events would force the rival sides towards the inevitable - when a new crisis arises, Germany cannot back down because this is the first test post-unification and it cannot afford to fail it, whilst Britain and France cannot back down for more or less the inverse of this - they cannot let Germany continue to ride roughshod over Europe.

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The outbreak of a general war occurs at a moment when it is unclear who would win such a conflict, and thus as with 1914 it ensures an unexpectedly lengthy war upon the continent.

Here the balance of forces really comes into play, with victories on one front at one time for one side, on another for the other, and so on. There are counter-strikes and counter-strokes, there are the opening of new fronts, the development of the war in new ways in an attempt to break the stalemate

And I don't think that stalemate unreasonable. Even in the Peninsular War, the conflict was very much a long hard slog, the breaking down of a stalemate bit by bit, blow by blow until victory. The Crimean War had degenerated pretty much to that by the time it ended - true, the next year would have brought new alllies into the conflict for the British and French and brought about the collapse of the Russian position, but the actual active front had bogged itself down. The most recent examples to both sides are, however, conflicting in what they appear to show

For the Germans it would seem that fast action, concentration of forces, and decisive, incisive moves is what wins wars, and wins them quickly. For the British and the French, they have seen the realities of modern siege warfare on both sides in the War of Southern Independence, and have conducted long and arduous campaigns across a broad area to eventually break down enemy resistance. These knowledge bases collide on the Western Front here, where the Germans have to learn a lesson in defence, and the British and French in turn have to learn one in prevention.

Although the front fluctuates and both sides score some successes, the essential deadlock holds. The WSI has seen trench warfare develop in the sieges and defences, increasingly so as the Union bedded down for a desperate last defence. Thus, whilst often out-thought by German strategists and rushing to cover themselves, the Anglo-French have the understanding of defensive warfare that is right for this period and are able to continually plug the gaps and establish effective defensive lines to thwart German plans.

Russia in this war has adopted an attitude of benevolent neutrality towards Germany, but is mainly out for what it can get. Thus, once the main armies have met in a series of titanic battle in the Western Front, Russia takes the opportunity to outright annex its protectorates of Galicia and Krakow, knowing that nobody can do more than verbally protest, if even that. Berlin is probably happy to see them go, although the attendant growth of Russia would be a worry.

I think that events which confuse the participants are realistic - the influx of Indian soldiers into Carlist Spain is going to cause problems, tho not insurmountable ones considering that they come as important allies. CSA officers in Cuba are going to hate that they are allied to a black and mulatto army, many of whom are escaped slaves, but the politicians in Richmond have greater concerns than short-term racial ones. The entry of the CSA into the war against Spain is going to be unwelcome to France and Mexico, a case of affairs that seems perfectly logical to me, one prize being chased after by several nominally allied countries, two of whom have a secret agreement which excludes the third who act in ignorance of it

Germany's great problem in this war is the lack of an effective fleet for anything other than coastal defence. War-time construction cannot really make that up in this period, and the hoped-for reliance on the Italians in the Mediterranean was blown apart by the French whose battlefleet has developed along very different lines. Italy is still reeling from Lissa, although it has constructed a new frontline fleet, whilst France has many actions from the WSI, the Mexican war, and the campaigns in California. Italy's strength is shown to be a mirage, and the French gain control of the Western seas. Whilst a remnant Italian, plus an Austrian force, can control the Adriatic, the entire Italian West coast is open to the French.

Bringing the German fleet to battle is pretty much impossible for the British and French, but once the British decide to throw their entire naval might into amphibious operations to open a new front in East Frisia, the German fleet proves incapable of preventing them. It could come out and be destroyed, or it could remain in being. It doesn't have either the strength or the tactical ability to pose a threat to an entire taskforce. Some units no doubt CAN inflict damage and losses to British craft amongst the islands, or in the estuaries, but by this time Britain is bringing to bear overwhelming naval force, whilst her army landings are being supported by a series of risings within German states unreconciled to their forced incorporation within the Empire

The German move into Belgium is a desperate attempt to turn the Anglo-French flank and break them, allowing for a descent on Paris. It only narrowly fails, but it fails at the time that British forces are uniting with Hannoverian rebels, and Bavaria and Austria are throwing off German overlordship to reclaim their independence. This is a series of blows against the Germans that send them reeling. That defeat is really on the cards is emphasised when Denmark is bold enough to declare war and move to occupy Schleswig and Holstein, an event that cannot but be interpreted as the beginning of the end for the German war effort

France's use of African troops mirrors Britain's use of Indian troops, and is a sign both of the overstretch of these two empires in winning this war and of the imperial resources they are able to call upon. In addition, having fought and won on European soil, neither force, nor its political base, is going to be able to be treated as second class after the peace is signed

That the Germans make one last massive push seems logical. Faced with internal uprisings, and surrounded by enemies, it would seem that only by knocking out one of their major opponents can they emerge from this in a positive light. Britain, France and Germany are all hugely over-stretched by this conflict, debts soaring, social problems manifesting at home, the economies tightly controlled but severely dislocated, and with the political will balanced on a knife edge. If the German army can take Paris then France could well implode which would force Britain to come to terms; even if these are not ideal for Germany, matters can be arranged so that they are not disastrous.

But the German assault on Paris fails, and the Anglo-French hold the line. The result of this defeat is disastrous. With all efforts thrown into the attack, its failure leaves nothing in reserve to deal with the declaration of Hannoverian independence, and certainly not with the opportunistic Russian declaration of war and invasion of East Prussia. This latter is very much the final straw, and is what causes the other forcibly integrated German states to reclaim their independence and announce their withdrawal from the empire.

At this the army collapses, many of its units openly mutinying, others refusing to fight those who are declaring for the newly re-independent states, and the social fabric of the empire coming apart, reflected in a mass exodus of the short-term soldier, and conscript, back to their homes. Why continue to fight a lost war and risk getting killed for nothing ?

The German collapse brings about that of Italy, with the folding of the Nice front, the surrender in Rome, and a separatist rising in Sicily. The situation is even worse for Spain upon the receipt of news that Berlin has requested an armistice - the royalist army of King Leopoldo is suddenly devoid of any allies, any hope of relief, and its shortages can only get worse. In a desperate move, the generals half-engineer and half-agree to his abdication in the name of Isabella's son Alphonso, but the Carlists are too strong, and Juan III's forces are now coming together and uniting to wipe out the remaining opposition

The Peace of The Hague 1874 is not the open and shut case that alternate history sometimes falls into. Berlin has over-run the Bavarian Palatinate, and Bavaria is hardly strong enough to get it back, and with the Armistice the interests of Britain and France in this matter are minute, with certainly no interest in reopening hostilities for Ludwig II's benefit. Spain is a victorious ally, with Juan III's Carlist regime, but he must open his reign by agreeing the cession of Cuba and Puerto Rico to his allies, a bitter blow made worse by the unleashing of Spanish hatred of the British Indian forces which result in a series of bloody clashes and vicious riots. Russia only gains what it already had - the annexation of Galicia and Krakow being recognised by all. Its permission to keep its plundered loot from East Prussia (what the item dealing with capital goods and shipping actually means) is hardly compensation for having brought about the collapse of Germany, and for the monies expended on the invasion in the first place. But Russia is not really in any position to argue

The peace treaty leaves a German Empire but it is comprised of the North German Confederation plus the Bavarian Palatinate, the Kingdom of Bohemia, and Austrian Silesia. One can probably imagine that Bohemia saw separatist risings in the latter period of the war, but without a native dynasty (its probably got a Habsburg cadet line providing the king within the Empire) and with German at the throat of Czech, the Empire has been able to keep a lid on things, and although bloody repression continues for some years, is able to keep the kingdom within the empire.

Liechtenstein would be a question here ! Ruled by a sovereign prince with large Bohemian estates, but under Austrian auspices, it may well also make a bid for independence, but when faced with losing its Bohemian lands see the prince agree to remain within the Empire, an isolated German island between Bavaria, Austria and Switzerland

German reparations are going to weaken the Empire for a decade or so, but see how fast France was able to pay these off in OTL in the wake of the 1870-71 war. The biggest loss could well be the devastation to Emden, Oldenburg, Hamburg, Bremen and Bremerhaven, which leaves Germany having to rely upon its Northern, Baltic ports for commerce in the immediate future. The former will come back, but it will take time and money, and in the immediate future its clear that foreign powers will take over a lot of the trade on a permanent basis - the British blockade having created what many would have seen as a temporary change, at first

I certainly envisage that the Norwegian merchant marine (of Sweden-Norway) would emerge here as a major player, whilst France and Britain would dominate world trade between them. The CSA probably also sees the development of shipping companies, probably joint ventures between Southern aristrocrats and European bankers. Portugal has probably benefitted from the war, her neutrality an act of necessity when faced with the prospect of invasion by either side, but allowing supplies to come to her, and via her into both Carlist and royalist hands during the fighting.

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

The break between Paris and Richmond seems natural and logical in this timeline. France has Mexico as a client empire, and can extend its power through her. The CSA on the other hand feels cheated over Cuba, fearful of growing Mexican power, and angry at emerging from the war with no formal gains. CSA officers would also add to this discontent by spreading stories of having to co-operate with black and mulatto Cubans, and even work with men who were proud to proclaim themselves as escaped slaves. The Confederacy will view itself as being duped into having co-operated so fully and having been betrayed, and it would blame France for all of this

Partly for practical reasons (it needs an ally and investor) and partly because there is much less animosity towards the British, Richmond will turn increasingly to Great Britain in the wake of its estrangement from France. British capital is already a major player in the CSA, British banks and industries involved in joint ventures and expansion as the CSA develops and pushes on with industrialisation. For its part, Britain is keen to support a country seen both as a bulwark against the Union, and as a barrier against French clients and colonies.

Mexico, whose internal politics are crashing in a manner very similar to those of the CSA, is supported materially by France, whose loans and manpower help to stabilise Salvador Iturbide's imperial regime. This is necessary for the Mexican Empire's survival but is something he has avoided committing himself to for as long as possible, retaining at least the pretence of independence of action that his title commands

The NWC and the USA are both struggling, the former losing out to the CSA and Mexico over European investment, the latter never having yet recovered from the WSI a decade ago.

France, Napoleon III's vision of both himself and his empire duly enlarged by her victory over Germany, flexes her muscles on the world stage, and chooses Argentina as her prey, a decision not completely divorced from her growing distance from Britain, for whom until now Argentina itself has been something of a client state. France does not intervene directly, merely pressing its "rights" in Patagonia, as an independent entity from Buenos Aires. With a mass of veterans available for use, and only a passing interest in really progressing the interests of the Mapuche, Paris is able to turn the putative Indian kingdom into a French colony in all but name

This results in war between France on the one hand and Argentina and Chile on the other, but the combined might of the two S American powers is not enough to prevent France getting her way, and many in Buenos Aires and Santiago can only breathe a sigh of relief that events in the Balkans demand France's attention at this time, so that in victory nothing other than recognition of the protectorate is required of the defeated nations

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

A knock-on butterfly has aided the Egyptians here. With Britain and France aiding the CSA in the WSI, the scope for Egyptian expansion in the cotton industry was narrowed - it still occurred but on a lesser scale, and whilst Egypt undertook a naval building programme, neither Said nor Ismail entertained quite the delusions of grandeur that would grip the country in OTL. Thus, the Ottoman representative is invited to the grand opening of the Suez Canal, and thus Istanbul does not feel slighted and see the need for the seizure of the Egyptian fleet. This latter is renewed in the early 1870s when significant units are sold to Hungary for coastal protection, and new ones ordered in their place.

With less revenues and a greater apparent force on the world stage, Ismail does not bankrupt his country as per OTL, although British and French banks are encouraged by their governments to lend to him. The Balkan Crisis however puts an end to this, at least in the short-term, and Egyptian borrowing never gets beyond survivable limits. However, Egypt's role in mediation is rewarded by an Ottoman agreement to pay off and cancel a proportion of Egyptian debts. This allows for greater Egyptian stability going forward, under Ottoman suzerainty

Events from the wide stretch of imperial interests combine to hit the headlines - the NWC seeks incorporation into the CSA, over the protests of the USA (Greater New England governed from Philadelpia); Britain defeats both the Zulus and the Boers, the large number of Indian veterans from the war in Europe proving vital to so doing; France defeats both Chile and Argentina but it is not cheap, and France has to recognise the independent status of the Mapuche as a price for peace.

One could say that this is the price of French imperial over-stretch for no sooner has the Patagonian Question being dealt with than France is at war with the Empire of China. This goes pretty much as per OTL, except that French naval forces and marines are larger than OTL due to expansion in the various wars aforementioned. Thus, not only is Indo-China secured, but also Hainan Island seized, and Kwangchowan forced as a leased port on the mainland.

Napoleon III dies aged 80 in 1888 and his 32 year old son Napoleon IV ascends the throne. One should not underestimate what the replacement of one emperor with another can do to a state where the emperor's wishes are enshrined within the constitution

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
356 views, more thoughts welcome, especially over what I've missed out, things that could be going on in the background, characters who might rise to prominence in this TL etc

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
In OTL the Balkan uprising was caused by Russian and Hapsburg machination, taking advantage of a tax revolt in Herzegovina which was in turn caused by a bad harvest.

The revolts and accompanying declaration of war by Serbia were all defeated by the Ottomans, but then Russia went to war, which was possible because of the temporary eclipse of France as a power due to the Franco-Prussian war.

The relative historical convergence in this TL is highly unlikely. The Ottoman trajectory is likely to be much different, especially given the involvement in a massive war in the period where the Ottomans were in the financial crisis which was most responsible for the final Balkan Crisis. Under the circumstances, the Ottomans would have been in a position to freely default on their debt and unilaterally set its restructure terms, which would have avoided most of the problems that led to 1877.

While there was a substantial revolt in Herzegovina that spread to Bosnia, the one in Bulgaria was a very minor and popularly unsupported nationalist revolt. Other than diplomatically, it posed no danger to the Ottomans, unlike the BH revolt, which was particularly dangerous because it invited Hapsburg intervention.
 
Kentucky annexation by the CSA is not going to go down smooth no matter how successful the Confederates are in any timeline.

While Governor Magoffin was pro-CSA the State Legislature was pro-Union and prevented Governor from passing any pro-CSA laws/bills while over-ruling any of his veteos on pro-Union laws/bills.

The CSA also invaded Kentucky violating the neutrality the state worked so hard to maintain. Union forces moved into the state to counter the CSA forces and this was seen as Union defense of Kentucky. Also the State Legislature order the union flag to be raised over the state capital.

If the CSA tries to annex Kentucky then they are going to be bogged down for at least a year if not longer trying to maintain control of the state.
 
Early 1880s, and France's victory against Argentina and Chile has cost a lot, and peace has been agreed only with the proviso that France has a protectorate of an independent kingdom, and not a colony in Patagonia-Araucania (generally known by its former name). France's hsitorical interest in the area was based upon the proclamation by the Mapuche of Oriele Antoine as king in the 1860s. He died at the end of the 1870s, but in his will nominated an heir, and by their own trap the French are forced to recognise this heir now as King Aquiles I, something which does not please Napoleon III for by doing so he is in effect raising up a mere middleclass man to a level almost equal to his own. The Liberal press point out that that is more or less what the first Napoleon did on proclaiming himself emperor, but Napoleon III denounces this as nonsense - Napoleon I was the living embodiment of the Revolution, the Empire is Liberty, Equality and Fraternity. Aquile I is merely the beneficiary of an adventurer. But none the less, he is now king under France's protection

The autonomous Bosnian principality is a state as much as mid-nineteenth century Serbia was, but the essential difference is that it is ruled by Muslims, who form the armed forces and government of the nation. It remains subject to Ottoman suzerainty, but effectively rules itself.

Hungary's role is a balancing act, looking to establish her own security after independence, and keep a balance between rival powers that surround her. Russia would be in the position of a natural ally were it not for their history, the Russian invasion in 1848 that helped the Habsburgs of Vienna subjugate the Hungarian revolution. It remains essential for Budapest to not have unfriendly relations with Russia, but friendship has continued to be beyond them. Istanbul is a convenient alternative, there being no major existing rivalries, and the Ottomans needing a friendly voice of some power as much as the Hungarians need them

The Sino-French War is somewhat enlarged over OTL, but mainly because Imperial France has a larger tradition of transporting troops to far-away theatres, and more warships on station around the world. This accounts for France's seizure of Hainan Island, and for the forced lease of the port of Kwangchowan

This war, and its result, set the scene for the inevitable showdown between China and Japan. The former has looked to reform, and probably in this timeline has shaken off the irksome rule of the Dragon Empress and given real power to the Emperor who brings in Russian and German (mainly Prussian of course) advisors to help reform the military. But not enough time elapses between the one conflict and the next for these reforms to bed in

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
France's fighting both Argentina and Chile over Patagonia-Araucania at the end of the 1870s into the 1880s, means that there is no War of The Pacific. Thus, Bolivia retains its coastal province, and Peru its Southernmost province. Britain probably intervenes directly in Bolivia to ensure the safety of its community and the operation of its commercial enterprises.

Chile's defeat leaves it much weaker than in OTL, and much less of a threat to its neighbours. It has to focus on its own recovery. Meanwhile the nitrate trade around Antofagasta remains on Bolivian territory, though in British hands after they took over the direct running during the recent crisis.

What it means for Peru is also worth considering

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I'll have a think about the comments and work out my replies to them. Not really sure how there is "convergence" in this timeline, since there are always 2 factors at work in history -1- underlying economic and social forces, -2- events which occur independent of a timeline but impinge on it

Now, I have been thinking a lot about South America, and realise that with possession of Cuba, Imperial France is going to be in the forefront of the abolition of the slave trade. In the short run this will bring them into conflict with Brazilian aims, but in the longer run, France is going to support the Brazilian Empire in its own abolition of slavery, and with France having Cuba, a protectorate in Patagonia-Araucania and a greater naval presence in the S Atlantic, any military coup against the Emperor in Brazil is likely to be just a failed uprising

As for a map, I really am crap at those ! I don't know how other people do it, but I just don't know how to do it digitally

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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