South Vietnamese "Taiwan" in the South China Sea

[Magnum]

Background:

East Sea Campaign - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

TL/DR: South Vietnam held a bunch of islands, ranging from tiny to small, which the North Vietnamese occupied during the final collapse of the south's army.

ITTL, Phu Quoc, Con Dao and the Spratlys are held by the ARVN, perhaps on account of more soldiers managing to evacuate during the last chaotic weeks, perhaps on account of the USN having previously transferred more ships to South Vietnam.

Can this rump state gain American favor and survive long term? What kind of geopolitical consequences are we looking at?

 

[Corjomc]

Once again US Navy can keep an island safe.

Is something small as Phu Quoc worth the trouble?

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Background:

East Sea Campaign - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

TL/DR: South Vietnam held a bunch of islands, ranging from tiny to small, which the North Vietnamese occupied during the final collapse of the south's army.

ITTL, Phu Quoc, Con Dao and the Spratlys are held by the ARVN, perhaps on account of more soldiers managing to evacuate during the last chaotic weeks, perhaps on account of the USN having previously transferred more ships to South Vietnam.

Can this rump state gain American favor and survive long term? What kind of geopolitical consequences are we looking at?

Well South Vietnam would be like an overglorified Fiji

 

[Glory2Cabinda]

What was the population I couldn't find any numbers?

 

[Pelranius]

What was the population I couldn't find any numbers?

According to Wikipedia, Phu Quoc has a population of 179,480.

Phú Quốc - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Con Dao has 8360.

Côn Đảo - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Strategos' Risk]

South Vietnam pulls a Taiwan

I found this on the archives of some defunct site (AHTG), is it plausible? The Republic of Vietnam - 1995 ©1998 Martin Landauer Jutting precariously into the South China Sea, the Republic of Vietnam continues to exist and indeed prosper as one of the Asian mini-dragons. After twenty...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[FesteringSpore]

The success of the Sài Gòn government doing this is reliant on, like the linked scenario Strategos gave, a recognition beforehand, like Jiang did, that South Vietnam was about to fall, and as such prepare for a redoubt. But again, this is nigh-impossible given that at this time American support was nil; Ford's attempt to give more aid to South Vietnam had been defeated by Congress; South Vietnamese holdouts in Phú Quốc, Côn Sơn and the rest of the Côn Đảo would have then been besieged by the North and you would have seen the East Sea Campaign but longer and more vicious given that in this scenario I would assume that there are more troops out there plus Magnum's PoD that the USN transferred even more ships to the RoV than IOTL.

tl;dr Phú Quốc would be blockaded, shelled, and physically attacked with troop landings until it surrenders, and Côn Sơn and Trường Sa (Spratly for all you Vietnamese non-speakers) would be subject to a bloodier and longer version of OTL's campaign.

You want to save the South, you'll have to take that fight to the mainland, and in earlier times, too.

 

[Magnum]

Could we see a third party, such as the RoC or the Philippines, prop up rump South-Vietnam-by-the-sea?

Or would the US themselves step in eventually?

 

[Pelranius]

Even if the rump South Vietnam survived, it'd have about as much significance as one of the middle sized Polynesian countries, due to its small population base.

 

[FesteringSpore]

Could we see a third party, such as the RoC or the Philippines, prop up rump South-Vietnam-by-the-sea?

Or would the US themselves step in eventually?

US won't step in, this rump South Vietnam would only last a little longer than OTL's, anyway.

Taiwan can't project its navy so far from Taiwan and the Philippines can't really do any meaningful support anyways.

Like I said earlier, this would be just a small chapter at the end of South Vietnam's history, kind of like Wrangel's last stand on the Crimea.

 

[Magnum]

US won't step in, this rump South Vietnam would only last a little longer than OTL's, anyway.

Taiwan can't project its navy so far from Taiwan and the Philippines can't really do any meaningful support anyways.

Like I said earlier, this would be just a small chapter at the end of South Vietnam's history, kind of like Wrangel's last stand on the Crimea.

North Vietnam didn't have any warship bigger that a patrol boat. A competently led destroyer flottila would, IMHO, be enough to prevent landings in the short term

 

[GauchoBadger]

One area this might have an effect on could be the border dispute between Vietnam and Cambodia over the island of Phu Quoc if the escaping SV government decides that cozying up to Cambodia is a better option than surrendering to the Viet Minh, but even that is difficult for me to see.

 

[FesteringSpore]

North Vietnam didn't have any warship bigger that a patrol boat. A competently led destroyer flottila would, IMHO, be enough to prevent landings in the short term

The north was able to defeat a superior south Vietnamese fleet with three ships the size of trawlers which are roughly the size of patrol boats, and still they won.

As I said in my post, more ARVN presence on the islands would mean a longer campaign, but still they would lose. It’s not a matter of if but when.

Also lol at competent RVN, maybe earlier but especially not now, they would be demoralized even if there were more of them

 

[FesteringSpore]

One area this might have an effect on could be the border dispute between Vietnam and Cambodia over the island of Phu Quoc if the escaping SV government decides that cozying up to Cambodia is a better option than surrendering to the Viet Minh, but even that is difficult for me to see.

Lon Nol’s government would be collapsing around this time and the Khmer Rouge IOTL actually tried taking Phú Quốc in May 1975

ITTL such an attack would help the Mainland Vietnamese not hinder them

 

[Magnum]

The north was able to defeat a superior south Vietnamese fleet with three ships the size of trawlers which are roughly the size of patrol boats, and still they won.

As I said in my post, more ARVN presence on the islands would mean a longer campaign, but still they would lose. It’s not a matter of if but when.

Also lol at competent RVN, maybe earlier but especially not now, they would be demoralized even if there were more of them

I was replying regarding the possibility of Taiwanese intervention - it would be THEIR destroyers

 

[FesteringSpore]

I was replying regarding the possibility of Taiwanese intervention - it would be THEIR destroyers

What use does Taiwan have intervening?

Your gut reaction will say “to prop up an ally to defend their South China Sea possessions”, but these South Vietnamese are beat dogs. They would be hiding on tiny atolls and islands barely larger than the cities they evacuated in fear. They don’t have enough supplies and land to permanently sustain themselves and replenish their losses, and then after the north rolls up Trường Sa (spratly) Taiwan’s own possessions might be threatened by North Vietnamese wrath.

Taiwan itself survived because the island they retreated to had a decent resource and supply base and was far enough from their enemy to deter the chance of mass attack (at the time) not to mention US support. This alternate South Vietnamese remnant has none of that. As I said in my original post, the main problem isn’t the logistics of executing a retreating maneuver to the islands, but surviving. Phú Quốc is too close to the mainland and Côn Sơn and the Spratlies are a poor, poor excuse for a redoubt.

 

[Remitonov]

Beyond the ridiculous impracticalities of holding out on tiny islands too close to the mainland and/or too small to support a sustainable population, there's the PAVN and Viet Cong prison populations to take note of, who would likely take matter into their own hands as per OTL knowing that liberation is a certainty. It's going to be a massacre regardless of who wins out in the prison revolts.

 

[FesteringSpore]

Beyond the ridiculous impracticalities of holding out on tiny islands too close to the mainland and/or too small to support a sustainable population, there's the PAVN and Viet Cong prison populations to take note of, who would likely take matter into their own hands as per OTL knowing that liberation is a certainty. It's going to be a massacre regardless of who wins out in the prison revolts.

To be fair

If there was a relocation plan beforehand the prisoners would have likely been transferred out in phases during late 1974ish in order to prevent that certainty.

Now

This is a general proclamation to y'all

While in real life such a plan would have probably failed, one could use the magic pen of TL-writing and create a scenario where a perfect little storm of PoDs could possibly make the RoV-on-the-isles a bit more survivable

Ingredients
1) RoV recognizes that they are fucked a couple months before Black April and decides to start evacuating to the islands; this includes moving them prisoners out in stages, enough so they don't know they're being moved
2) As with Magnum's PoD, RoV gets more ships
3) The Saudi Arabia deal needs to work out- this is a little-known deal, but essentially the gist of it is that Thiệu and King Faisal of Saudi Arabia worked out a deal in which Faisal would loan the RoV 300 million in exchange for Thiệu selling the RoV's gold reserves to them, but then Faisal got shot and the new king Khalid was like "Ima rethink" but by the time he got done rethinking South Vietnam got yeeted
4) The Vietnamese-Cambodian border conflicts needs to escalate, somehow. As in starting a full-fledged war that can buy the RoV-on-the-isles some breathing room as the mainland and Cambodia go to war
5) The inevitable boat people crisis attracts the UN's attention; you have the UN setting up camp on ASEAN shores to process refugees as per OTL but also setting them up on RoV island territories like Côn Sơn and the Spratlies to lighten the load of refugees for the RoV to process. This allows the RoV to swell up its population but also be necessary to send excess Vietnamese overseas as per OTL. So in the end, you'd probably end up with something like an 80/20 divide; 80% leaving overseas and 20% staying in RoV-held territory.

For real life, this is nigh-impossible, but for a TL...

it could work. Emphasis on could.

 

[Pelranius]

The rump South Vietnam will be dependent on foreign aid for gawd knows how long (with the infrastructure limitations posed by the small size of even Phu Quoc, good luck starting any sort of export industry)

 

[GSD310]

I'm just thinking how ASEAN would factor in. OTL their reactions to the establishment of a communist Vietnam ran a spectrum from Thailand's insecurity (because Vietnam is just across the border) to Indonesia playing things realistically and seeing Vietnam as a buffer from China and then Malaysia being somewhere in between the Thai and Indonesian positions. Singapore I think also shares a wariness towards Vietnam. Not so sure about the Philippines.

ASEAN and the Rise of China

Since the early 1990s and the end of the Cold War, the implications of China's rising power have come to dominate the security agenda of the Asia-Pacific region. This book is the first to comprehensively chart the development of Southeast Asia’s relations with the People’s Republic of China...

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