South Vietnam without Diem

manav95

Banned
Let's say Diem is unable to take over the country and gets killed in 1955. What happens to South Vietnam? Can someone else take over? I think maybe the religious sects might or perhaps some other military dude. Or maybe the US appoints another jerk to lead the country. Can South Vietnam survive against Ho Chi Minh then?
 
Diem was the most stable and competent leader of the RVN until Thieu finally took control. He was essentially in power because there wasn't that much talent around. Considering how bad the military governments did until Thieu, I think it's pretty telling that there wasn't a viable alternative to Diem waiting in the wings.

South Vietnam needs a major POD to be robust enough to resist Ho Chi Minh without continued support from a major power like the United States.
 
The choices are either a) that general elections are held which unifies South Vietnam to the North, which 99% results in a communist dictatorship, or b) South Vietnam restores the monarchy of Bao Dai and some other anti-Communist nationalist becomes Prime Minister, most likely a member of the Dai Viet political party that provided most of the leadership before and after Diem.

The only difference I see her is that the presence of Bao Dai might lead to increased stability. Relations between Buddhists and Catholics are likely to be more amenable, and there won't be the roller coastal of PMs after Diem that destroyed the ability of the South Vietnam to resist the Communists in 1964-1966 which impelled US escalation. The question is whether this would have made a difference. Knowing what Diem did, it certainly can't be worse than if he survived. Whether the long term survival is possible, I can't say, but at minimum they are unlikely to do worse than Diem did from 1955-1963, and will probably avoid any disastrous period like the post-coup period in 1964-1966.

This may dodge one bullet, but if South Vietnam is still overpowered by the North, it all depends on what kind of general the US sends to lead any large US force. Westmoreland is probably the kiss of death regardless, but even he might do better since the South Vietnamese army is likely less incapcitated without the coups.

I think the odds are still against South Vietnam, but there is an outside chance it might survive.
 
The problem really is that South Vietnam has no one competent available, which is the main difference between it and other dictatorships.

South Korea, North Vietnam, and so on were all brutal dictatorships. However, they were COMPETENT, which can't be said for anyone available in South Vietnam, especially since there's one other factor.

Namely, does the South Vietnam government have any legitimacy with its populace at all? Because if it doesn't, it has no chance. This is another difference between it and South Korea, as the latter had legitimacy with its populace, being formed out of an actual nationalist revolt.
 
The choices are either a) that general elections are held which unifies South Vietnam to the North, which 99% results in a communist dictatorship, or b) South Vietnam restores the monarchy of Bao Dai and some other anti-Communist nationalist becomes Prime Minister, most likely a member of the Dai Viet political party that provided most of the leadership before and after Diem.

I don't see a strong major Anti-Communist figure emerging though. Bao Dai was a French puppet that cared more about his lifestyle than anything, and Diem was picked because the Viet Minh had purged almost all Non-communist elements and left few bureaucrats around to choose from. So A seems to be the only realistic option.

Maybe if a POD allows for the Viet Quoc and other non-communists to escape to the south than a better leader could emerge.
 
The problem is that you require a strong figure that can rival Ho Chi Minh for legitimacy. There is also the problem that there is not a united Anti - Communist front. It is incredibly similar to White Russia in you have Pro French, Anti French, Pro US, religious sects and ethnic minorities etc. So the politician in charge needs to be astute, a political genius and have exceptional bodyguards. So this can be done, but it is difficult to achieve.

So you have two options you can have another politician emerge, and there were a couple of options.

Alternatively you can have Duy Tan survive and implement a constitutional monarchy. This is a good choice or Bao Long succeeds Bao Dai, which is a good option as well.
 
Diem was picked because the Viet Minh had purged almost all Non-communist elements and left few bureaucrats around to choose from.

My understanding is that Diem was picked because he had spent time in the US, and it was thought appointing him was a way to get American support at a time when France was obviously backing out. I know there were plenty of other non-communist leaders available. They were the ones in charge before and after Diem.

However, I don't know how competent or strong they are. By the time Diem was killed in 1963, he was clearly the strongest leader they had and his death lead to prolonged chaos. Is that really true in 1955? Was there really no alternative who could eventually build a stable government and retain support of the Catholics, Buddhists, and peasants?
 
My understanding is that Diem was picked because he had spent time in the US, and it was thought appointing him was a way to get American support at a time when France was obviously backing out. I know there were plenty of other non-communist leaders available. They were the ones in charge before and after Diem.

However, I don't know how competent or strong they are. By the time Diem was killed in 1963, he was clearly the strongest leader they had and his death lead to prolonged chaos. Is that really true in 1955? Was there really no alternative who could eventually build a stable government and retain support of the Catholics, Buddhists, and peasants?

The problem is how? The government doesn't have any legitimacy, as it was a leftover Imperialist Puppet, unlike South Korea which had very different circumstances.

But, to be fair, Taiwan has worked out despite a foreign power taking it, although the circumstances even there are a bit different.
 
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