South Vietnam wins

One problem was that McNamara and LBJ were always tied up in knots, worrying what China and the USSR would do, and not what the USA would do. Nixon didn't, making the USSR and China worry about what the US would do, with Kissinger and Nixon's Good Cop/Bad Cop routine.
 
One problem was that McNamara and LBJ were always tied up in knots, worrying what China and the USSR would do, and not what the USA would do. Nixon didn't, making the USSR and China worry about what the US would do, with Kissinger and Nixon's Good Cop/Bad Cop routine.

It helped the North that international reporters had very very controlled access to North Vietnam and allied areas as they were allowed in at times as were celebrities when it suited their purposes.

The unfettered media access in the South wasn’t a plus as every wart the South Vietnamese government and military was under the microscope with a dozen different ideas to fix it from Washington most of them bad.

South Korea would have held up even worse in the late 40s and early 50s with the same treatment.

War is ugly and insurgent warfare, especially so and you had an idealistic generation who held the ARVN to a standard they weren’t going to come close to it without much greater professionalization, discipline as well as COIN training.
 
The enormous difference is every enemy who attempted conventional invasions of Vietnam did it in the end with the goal to conquer and occupy not to relieve pressure on one half of the country to clean house.
Sure, but tell that to the peasant who's being shot, and to his cousin in the south
 
I’m just saying that you’d have plausible deniability.

No. You wouldn't have plausible deniability. There's no way to execute destruction on that scale and conceal it.

and with Western journalists not being able to access the North,

Again, not possible. The US doesn't control the territory. The news will get out inevitably. There are journalists all over the world. What's the US going to do? Hunt down every journalist for Le Monde? Kill reporters from Lebanon to the Phillipines, Japan, Australia?

you aren’t trying to hide the fact you’re blockading them into submission, you just don’t want to have pictures of Vietnamese children on the nightly news or in the NYT.

Too bad. You're going to have it.

Because in the modern day, Vietnamese people like the US and American culture, but they still hate China. If you give amnesty to the North Vietnamese leaders I doubt they would rather become Chinese puppets than flee to the Soviet Union or Cuba.

People don't forgive it when you starve them. The Irish are still enraged about the famine. The Bengali famine broke British India. The Baltic Famine broke the Swedes and the Finns. Do this to Vietnam, they'll open their arms to China.... and they'll still be murdering Americans a hundred and fifty years later.
 
Sure, but tell that to the peasant who's being shot, and to his cousin in the south

Tell what to them?

If you want a conventional military option for America and it’s allies you have to minimally disorient the North Vietnamese war effort while giving free reign to forces in the South to deal with the tail. That doesn’t even necessarily mean occupy population centers of the North though.

If you want a COIN only option you probably need about 200,000 US troops in the South on tours that lasts say two and a half years having them ‘go native’ and live with the population and learn the language and culture while another 75K troops help build up the ARVN on similarly long tours. It would probably be a 15-20 year venture until the South can both do COIN and defend against North Vietnamese attack.

Strategy two hearts and minds matter, not so much in regards to strategy one.
 
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People don't forgive it when you starve them. The Irish are still enraged about the famine. The Bengali famine broke British India. The Baltic Famine broke the Swedes and the Finns. Do this to Vietnam, they'll open their arms to China.... and they'll still be murdering Americans a hundred and fifty years later.

The Japanese-caused famine of 1945 killed millions of Vietnamese people yet they seems to get along well nowadays, at least that's my impression.
 
I concur with some of the other writers on here. If you want to have a chance for South Vietnam to win, the POD must be earlier, and you need someone other than Diem to lead.

Other than that, the best option is to have the North Vietnamese grab the idiot ball and shoot themselves consistently in the foot.

A more psychopathic, genocidal American approach may well butterfly the Sino Soviet split, or at least significantly moderate it.

By the late 1960's, South Vietnam was simply not a salvageable state.
 
You're kidding, right? The Japanese are hated right across Asia.

Below is an article from the official newspaper of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Bright prospects for Vietnam-Japan economic cooperation

Nhan Dan said:
NDO - Since Vietnam and Japan established diplomatic ties in 1973, the bilateral relationship has been continually strengthened and has recorded many outstanding achievements in all areas, especially the increasingly thriving economic cooperation, which is a highlight of the Vietnam-Japan extensive strategic partnership.

In recent years, the bilateral trade value has been growing steadily towards a more balanced relationship. Vietnam’s exports to Japan have seen encouraging growth. In 2017, five key Vietnamese exports to Japan, namely garments, machinery, transport vehicles, seafood and timber products, all increased compared with the previous year, with each reaching at least US$1 billion.

In the opposite direction, most of Vietnam’s imports from Japan are to be used for manufacturing activity. In 2017, three of Vietnam’s imports from Japan with respective values of at least US$1 billion were machinery, computers and electronics, and steel and iron.

Japan is a large importer of seafood, garments, footwear products and processed food, which are Vietnam’s strengths, while Japanese machines and accessories have long established their reputation in Vietnam. Japanese cuisine served in the Japanese style in Japanese restaurants in Vietnam is helping to bring the two countries culturally closer together. Japan is assisting to develop Vietnam’s supporting industries, with the Vietnam-Japan supporting industries exhibition being held regularly to promote economic and investment cooperation between the two countries and enhance the capacity of Vietnam’s supporting industries.

Cooperation between Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade and Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is active, with notable cooperation between the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency and the Japan External Trade Organisation (Jetro) and the ASEAN Promotion Centre on Trade, Investment and Tourism.

The cooperation between the two sides has focused on fields with great potential and has brought about an early and clear effect, especially in Vietnam’s key economic zones. One of the prime examples of Vietnam-Japan cooperation is Japan’s special support programme for Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV) to help the four countries to bolster the export of high-quality handicrafts.

Within the framework of the above-mentioned programme, Japanese experts share their experience with Vietnam on product design and marketing, and business administration. Recently, Japan has facilitated Vietnam to export an additional number of products to the East Asian country, such as red-flesh dragon fruits, mangoes, heat-processed chicken and milk. The two sides also cooperate in catching and exporting tuna to Japan.

The Vietnam-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement signed in 2008 has become a driver for trade growth between the two countries.

The two governments’ supportive stance and the two business communities’ dynamism and faithful cooperation are expected to create further opportunities for bilateral trade cooperation. However, Japan is a demanding market with strict requirements on product quality, applying not only to imports from Vietnam but to those also from other countries.

In order to take full advantage of the cooperation opportunities between the two countries, Vietnamese enterprises need to ensure that their exports meet the quality standards of Japanese importers, while at the same time transforming Japan’s cooperation and support programmes effectively in order to strengthen the Vietnamese economy.
 
You're kidding, right? The Japanese are hated right across Asia.

And here's an article from the Pew Research Center. Too long to quote fully so I'll just post a relevant image here.


How Asia-Pacific Publics See Each Other and Their National Leaders
Japan Viewed Most Favorably, No Leader Enjoys Majority Support

iroz2b7.png
 
I stand corrected. After 75 years, and several intervening wars, the Vietnamese have gotten over their dislike of the Japanese. But then again, there were intervening issues - the French re-invasion, the war against the French, the Civil War, the American War, the War with China, the War with Cambodia, the boat people expulsions.

You really figure that the US could use starvation as a weapon of war, and it'll all be good?
 
No. You wouldn't have plausible deniability. There's no way to execute destruction on that scale and conceal it.

Again, not possible. The US doesn't control the territory. The news will get out inevitably. There are journalists all over the world. What's the US going to do? Hunt down every journalist for Le Monde? Kill reporters from Lebanon to the Phillipines, Japan, Australia?

Too bad. You're going to have it.

People don't forgive it when you starve them. The Irish are still enraged about the famine. The Bengali famine broke British India. The Baltic Famine broke the Swedes and the Finns. Do this to Vietnam, they'll open their arms to China.... and they'll still be murdering Americans a hundred and fifty years later.
Korea? Japan? Germany? How are these journalists entering North Vietnam? They’re going to fly though a blockade/quarantine? Or are they going to go by the bombed out railroads? Are they going to trek across China for half a year to go to report on what could be portrayed as a sideshow.
 
I'm skeptical.
I did say 'May'

Butbhad the PAVN spearheads been blasted by US Airpower, RVN stumbles along till the North is too occupied with issues with China, Laos and Cambodia to do a full scale invasion, as well as Soviet fatigue as sending so much aid to the North.
 
ASB. Not even Diem was in favor of a Northern Offensive.

Now you can keep the stalemate ongoing, but that requires a lot of cash to prop up, cash that, as seen OTL, is not always politically popular to hand out.
 
I did say 'May'

Butbhad the PAVN spearheads been blasted by US Airpower, RVN stumbles along till the North is too occupied with issues with China, Laos and Cambodia to do a full scale invasion, as well as Soviet fatigue as sending so much aid to the North.

Well, Cambodia would be a problem for South Vietnam. Laos is pretty much a non-issue.

The China Vietnam conflict wasn't until 1982. I don't know that it would hit earlier.

I assume that the most likely outcome of a reprieve by the United States following up on Treaty obligations is that the North's offensive is stalled. They might take a few critical provinces and be able to hold them. South Vietnam is so dysfunctional and corrupt it fails to learn. The North again switches to an insurgency mode. At most, you just buy a year or two.

The problem is the need to find a way to reform a South Vietnamese governance model which was irretrievably corrupt and incompetent, and which saw no need to reform because the US kept bailing it out.
 
I assume that the most likely outcome of a reprieve by the United States following up on Treaty obligations is that the North's offensive is stalled. They might take a few critical provinces and be able to hold them. South Vietnam is so dysfunctional and corrupt it fails to learn. The North again switches to an insurgency mode. At most, you just buy a year or two.
The North can't switch back into insurgency mode.
The Southern Communists were all mostly killed in Tet, and the ones that survived that, got whacked by the CIA with Phoenix.

After 1971, any 'Insurgency' would be all Northerners. That's why 1972 and 1975 were conventional invasions.

For Pol Pot's raids, that would be in areas that were not under RVN control in 1975 anyway.
 
The North can't switch back into insurgency mode.
The Southern Communists were all mostly killed in Tet, and the ones that survived that, got whacked by the CIA with Phoenix.

After 1971, any 'Insurgency' would be all Northerners. That's why 1972 and 1975 were conventional invasions.

For Pol Pot's raids, that would be in areas that were not under RVN control in 1975 anyway.

That's conventional wisdom, isn't it? The Vietnamese consistently showed themselves to be adaptable and capable of changing strategies. Just because North Vietnam opted for one strategy in our time, doesn't necessarily mean that was the only strategy available, or that they could not have adapted and shifted.

Wasn't the whole American involvement in the Vietnam war predicated on 'They do this, so we do that and we win!' It didn't work out that way.

Regarding Pol Pot's raids, why do you think that Pot would have opted to raid a North Vietnamese 'communist' ally, rather than a South Vietnamese 'capitalist' enemy?
 
Regarding Pol Pot's raids, why do you think that Pot would have opted to raid a North Vietnamese 'communist' ally, rather than a South Vietnamese 'capitalist' enemy?
The Khmer Rouge were quite happy to kill any Vietnamese they came across: civilian, or Military from North or South. They were fairly racist on that. The KR had started purges in 1974, continuing what Lon Nol had started with his anti-Vietnamese pogroms. It was one of the few things that Lon Nol and Pol Pot shared belief in.
 
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