South Vietnam pulls a Taiwan

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I found this on the archives of some defunct site (AHTG), is it plausible?

The Republic of Vietnam - 1995

©1998 Martin Landauer

Jutting precariously into the South China Sea, the Republic of Vietnam continues to exist and indeed prosper as one of the Asian mini-dragons. After twenty years of peace, the country is enjoying rapid and sustainable economic growth as a regional financial and commercial hub, as well as a producer of semiconductors and refined oil. Yet its economic miracle is even more remarkable considering the country's sovereignty only exists in practical terms over a peninsula barely eighteen kilometres long and three kilometres wide, containing the once-sleazy beach resort of Vung Tau.

In 1975 as forces of the North Vietnamese Army led its final assault along the South Central coast and towards Saigon and the Mekong Delta, a group of ARVN senior officers who believed that the Republic did not have the resources or morale to save itself, or could rely on the United States for backing, decided to secretly mobilise select units under their command to secure the easily defendable peninsula. In late April when it seemed inevitable that Saigon would fall, a General Nguyen Ba Lu emerged and presented the demoralised President Thieu with a proposition to continue the existence of the Republic of Vietnam on a small but important parcel of land 120kms south-east of Saigon. After a lengthy all-night session with other military generals, politicians and constitutional lawyers, Thieu gave his blessing to the project.

In the frantic four days before the ARVN finally laid down its arms to the numerically superior NVA, South Vietnam's elite, along with the Republic's national treasures and financial assets was transferred by helicopter from the besieged Saigon to the bastion at Vung Tau. Word spread throughout the rest of the country that the government was planning a final "confrontation" in Vung Tau, although it later transpired (much to the consignation of the remaining elements of the ARVN still fighting) that the government had decided to cut its losses. Indeed, in the eight months after Saigon fell the NVA made many reckless attempts to overrun the peninsula with the same intensive brute force that had previously succeeded against less equipped conscripts, but the soldiers that General Lu deployed on a marshy three kilometer long front at the entry of the peninsula did not give ground. Ground assaults, sea to shore bombardments, aerial attacks and bombing campaigns were employed.

Conditions on Vung Tau were terrible. Its pre-1975 population of 120,000 suddenly swelled to 220,000 by the end of May with refugees coming by boat from Saigon and the Mekong Delta, and would explode to 700,000 by the end of the year. By that time the occupying forces managed to secure the rest of the country and prevent any further exoduses. This measure ironically saved the Republic from collapsing, as the peninsula was struggling with the sheer mass of numbers coming in. In a huge shantytowns that sprang up overnight, dysentery and cholera was rampant while food and fresh drinking water was scarce. Fortunately, the United Nations (albeit begrudgingly) sent relief supplies to the rump remains of the Republic of Vietnam, while the military was able to continue purchasing arms with its ample foreign reserves. And as the population increased, more able men could be conscripted for defence.

The last major land assault was in October 1975, which was bloodily defeated without an inch of the Republic of Vietnam being yielded. The NVA's General Giap in a secret memorandum to the Communist Party's Politburo gave a frank assessment that the peninsula could not feasibly be taken. The words of the victor at Dien Bien Phu were not taken lightly, but it was clear that no senior Communist Party official could afford any talk of disengagement, less it be seen as a sign of defeatism or even recognition of the division of the country. However, many realised the futility of military force and less were becoming inclined to support attacks which would inevitably fail.

An unexpected lull in fighting in November extended into the Tet New Year in March 1976. The President of the Socialist Republic Vietnam, in wishing his people season's greetings, condemned the "splitist" attitude of the "Vung Tau regime" and vowed that one day it will return to be part of the motherland. While the guns went silent as the country redirected its efforts to reconstructing the nation, a vocal propaganda war against General Lu was raged and a trade embargo was placed on Vung Tau. Fortunately, vital sea links bringing in rice from Thailand and fuel from Singapore were not usually harmed.

President Thieu resigned in June 1975, and was replaced General Nguyen Vo Van Nhat, an offsider to General Lu. His appointed Foreign Minister, Le Hieu, was sent to Washington and Tokyo to seek support. While the United States continued to refuse to send troops or engage in any hostile actions, it provided defence hardware and other supplies to keep the ARVN sustained. The world community continued to recognise the Republic of Vietnam, although many were beginning to establish relations with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam and see it as the legitimate government over all of Vietnam except the tiny enclave on the Vung Tau peninsula.

By the end of 1976 it became clear that for the time being at least, the North Vietnamese had no plans to make further military assults on Vung Tau, but no formal summit between leaders had taken place. With its ample treasury reserves, the Vung Tau authorities managed to secure Asia Development Bank and World Bank loans to rebuild Vung Tau. A second wave of migrants, escaping the anti-Chinese pogroms that began in 1979 as the Communist Party started to nationalise the assets of Chinese businesses, had to be housed. On the eastern seaboard, sewered and powered apartment blocks were built over the existing shantytowns, feared by the military as being possible hideouts for insurgents and revolutionaries. Business was encouraged by the military government with suitable and well executed policies. Small factories sprang up by local entrepreneurs to manufacture garments and textiles. Industrial parks were developed on the few remaining portions of land that hadn't been reserved for the military or for highly intensive farming. Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese companies started relocating factories to these industrial parks in the early 1980's, attracted by the cheap labour and good governance Vung Tau offered.

By the middle of the 1980's, Vung Tau was on the road to industrial development. The war-scarred, land hungry Vung Tau had its own university, television stations, airline, symphony orchestra, diplomatic corps, harbour and - thanks to the protection its own navy provided - two offshore oil and gas platforms being developed (completed along with a refinery in 1991). Life was still difficult for many, as families squatted with other families to avoid paying huge rents. Water supplies are still rationed and food is expensive, although a lot actually comes from the Socialist Republic of Vietnam through the black market. The military does wield a strong presence in the country, although this generation of officers (many who were field commanders) are considered by outside commentators to be stronger, cleaner and more effective in governing the country. Yet by the mid-1990s, it could be said from looking at the rising skyline on Vung Tau stretching into the ocean across from where the remainder of Vietnam had been left to wallow in communist policies, that the 1,100,000 Vung Tau people have in scarely two decades advanced from being starving refugees to being masters of their own destinies in a wealthy enclave.

To this day, neither the Socialist Republic of Vietnam nor the Republic of Vietnam recognises the legitimacy of each other. However, the greatest dream the citizens in both areas dream of is unification of the county. Talks between both factions started in 1984 and later in 1989 businessmen from the "new Vietnam" were allowed to travel within the "old Vietnam" on commercial purposes. Now often many people from Vung Tau travel to Vietnam to observe what changes has taken place in their country, and who of their friends or relatives needs help. While a relaxation in political controls is happening in the Socialist Republic, a new generation of Vung Tau children are being raised with little or no memories of the "old Vietnam". And it is this fact that many people are concerned about; that the people from Vung Tau do not represent fully-acculturalised Vietnamese. Only in the future will we know if these concerns would impact on how our children define their identities.

Is that fella on this board? I wish to congratulate him for successfully applying a well-known national archetype (R.O.C. on Taiwan) to Vietnam, which I hadn't seen done elsewhere before.
 
Ah, this is indeed amazing. There aren't a lot of surviving Republic of Vietnam scenarios in Alternate History, so seeing one makes me smile.
 
ASB the Republic of Vietnam would look like Ronapour not Taiwan. I.E a criminal enterprise only kept propped up by US arms and dirty money. The whole idea of ‘’South Vietnam’’ never had any legitimacy nor did the state ever show any sings of being able to stand own it’s own. Along with that the insane levels of corruption, mass uprisings and constant coups are not helpful to long term economic growth.
 
ASB the Republic of Vietnam would look like Ronapour not Taiwan. I.E a criminal enterprise only kept propped up by US arms and dirty money. The whole idea of ‘’South Vietnam’’ never had any legitimacy nor did the state ever show any sings of being able to stand own it’s own. Along with that the insane levels of corruption, mass uprisings and constant coups are not helpful to long term economic growth.

So did South Korea. After Synghman Rhee, a various amount of coups took place and was a cesspool of corruption. Look at it now. Should the US have cut and run in 1950 because Snghman Rhee was a nasty person and handed it to Kim Il Sung?

I could also say the same things about China, Post-Imperial Russia, Taiwan, Brazil and India. Things CAN Change

And there was only one coup in SV, the one that offed Diem. And many of the Uprisings in Vietnam had a Northern influence.

Im not saying South Vietnam was great. It was a nasty place run by brutal dictators who were extremely horrible. But it still managed by itself before the whole thing went to hell in 1964.
 
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What's Russia's reaction to all of this? How does this affect later Cold War developments? At this point, the precedent will have been set and consolidated - countries are cut in half, one being supported by the USSR and the other by the USA. East/West Germany, PRC/ROC, North/South Korea, and now North/South Vietnam.
 
ASB the Republic of Vietnam would look like Ronapour not Taiwan. I.E a criminal enterprise only kept propped up by US arms and dirty money. The whole idea of ‘’South Vietnam’’ never had any legitimacy nor did the state ever show any sings of being able to stand own it’s own. Along with that the insane levels of corruption, mass uprisings and constant coups are not helpful to long term economic growth.

Legitimacy or not there is more than enough people who are willing to escape North Vietnamese rule, especially by the time of the fall of Saigon.

And besides, why couldn't it be both Roanapur AND Taiwan?
 
Taiwan did have a nice geographical barrier, patrollable by the US navy. And the Koumintang for all its faults was for many years recognized by much of the world as the legitimate government of China.

Comparisons to Korea are instructive. There were revolts in favor of unification after WWII.
 
So how exactly do all these people get their water? And why do the North Vietnamese just stop fighting? Why aren't they taking the simple option of simply parking artillery around a perimeter and bombarding the place into rubble?

S. Korea and the ROC were brutal dictatorships with little legitimacy but they had viable territories. 200k people on a tiny indefensible and unsustainable peninsula do not a viable rump state make.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Yeah, I've gotta agree that this scenario is ridiculous. It's a cool idea, a surviving RSVN, but this scenario is ASB.
 
Well, the United States could aid the "new" Republic of South Vietnam, with the clear understanding within Congress that ground troops would not be deployed. That could prevent any major artillery pieces or airborne strikes upon it. At the same time, they could send humanitarian supplies (in much larger amounts than the United Nations) to keep the country afloat.
 

abc123

Banned
I found this on the archives of some defunct site (AHTG), is it plausible?



Is that fella on this board? I wish to congratulate him for successfully applying a well-known national archetype (R.O.C. on Taiwan) to Vietnam, which I hadn't seen done elsewhere before.


Well, I'm just watching Google Earth, maybe it's better to choose area south of Mekong, you have there a great natural barrier ( Mekong river is about 1-2 km wide there ) wich separates you from the North, you can realativly easy to defend ti, and the most important, you have some area to defend ( about 100- 200 km of sthrategic depth ).
;)
 

abc123

Banned
Well, I'm just watching Google Earth, maybe it's better to choose area south of Mekong, you have there a great natural barrier ( Mekong river is about 1-2 km wide there ) wich separates you from the North, you can realativly easy to defend ti, and the most important, you have some area to defend ( about 100- 200 km of sthrategic depth ).
;)


Or try with the Dao Phu Quoc island, SW of Vietnam.
50- 60 km from Vietnam, area 574 km2.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dao_Phu_Quoc
;)
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
abc's made a good call there. If this is going to happen, Phú Quốc is the best location for such an endeavor. It's only about 60% the size of Hong Kong, but I still think it'd be cool if somebody gave this a go. Writing a short story on it might be fun :)
 
So how exactly do all these people get their water? And why do the North Vietnamese just stop fighting? Why aren't they taking the simple option of simply parking artillery around a perimeter and bombarding the place into rubble?

S. Korea and the ROC were brutal dictatorships with little legitimacy but they had viable territories. 200k people on a tiny indefensible and unsustainable peninsula do not a viable rump state make.

Flocculencio

That's the big problem with the scenario. This pocket is too small to survive against such a brutal and well equipped enemy. There will be plenty of people who want to escape communist rule as history shows but this is too small an area. Given that the US refused to aid the south when it could well have been decisive I can't see the north simply pounding the pocket into submission. Their ruthless enough to slaughter the entire population and Russia will make sure they have enough ammunition so I can't see a free Vietnam survive.

Steve
 
If South Vietnam survives by some happenstance I don't believe it would be its OTL territory. It would have to be near a natural defensible area (people mentioned a river or an island but this island can't be too close to the mainland and big enough to support a nation) and has to control a prominent port so it could be supplied by the US by air and sea and can check another invasion. I would say South Vietnam would have to give up Saigon as well.
 

CalBear

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You know better than this.

SIXTEEN months? 16? Really?

DO NOT do this again
 
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