(South) Sakhalin and Kuriles stay Japanese after 1945?

So is there any chance that Japan can hold onto their pre-war borders in the north after WWII? Can the Allies be persuaded to let Japan keep the land, or is it inevitable that if the Soviet Union enters the war, those islands will be Soviet? Could fear of the Soviets post-war persuade the Allies to let the Japanese keep those islands?

The only thing I can think of is if Japan surrenders prior to the Soviet declaration of war, but would that be enough time to persuade the Allies for the final peace settlement? Would this ratchet up tension between Stalin and the West?

One thing I'm also interested in is the effects this might have on the Cold War/Japan as a whole. Would the Karafuto Prefecture-Sakhalin Oblast border be an intensely militarised zone maybe second to the Korean DMZ, where Russian defectors try to escape across? Could there be a "Sakhalin Wall" in the east? One thing that's obvious is post-war Japan would have one more prefecture than it does today, and the "four islands" of Japan might be thought of the "five islands".
 
As soon as USSR enters the war the chances for Japan to retain South Sakhalin and Kuriles disappears. They were promised to USSR on Yalta conference for USSR help.
If USSR is late to the fight there is still good chances for it to receive South Sakhalin unless relations with the West deteriorated very quickly. Though all territorial gains for USSR after WW2 were already occupied by them, and so Allies may deny South Sakhalin and dispute may lead to some tension. Kuriles might remain Japanese or taken under international/US control, though it is pure conjecture.
On the plus side if USSR never was at the state of war with Japan and there will not be a pesky problem with Northern Territories OTL and relation between Russia and Japan might be better in the long run.
 
Between the end of WWII in Europe and Japan surrendering to the Allies, Stalin was already moving in East Europe to rig elections toward comunist states.

If he moves more aggressively or takes all of Korea Churchill could end up convincing Truman that the URSS is as much a threat as Nazi Germany so I could see both of them refusing Stalin the islands and to be happy with Manchuria and Korea.
 
Get Japan to surrender before the Soviets can invade.

Yeah. That's the best bet.

It would probably tough even so to keep Southern Sakhalin (once Japan surrender, the Soviets would likely just walk in from the northern part of the island anyway); but they might keep the Kuriles, which the U.S. is in better position to occupy quickly.
 
Yeah. That's the best bet.

It would probably tough even so to keep Southern Sakhalin (once Japan surrender, the Soviets would likely just walk in from the northern part of the island anyway); but they might keep the Kuriles, which the U.S. is in better position to occupy quickly.

The 1858 border(between Iturup/Etorofu and Urup; what Japan claims today as theirs in the Kuriles' Question) would be quite feasible in this scenario, I think.
 
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