In my opinion, since i live in fort myers, once people invent a/c and disney, here comes the people. However, since they are in 2 diff. countires, it will depend on a. the relation between the csa and usa, and b. how many blacks are here. I don't think any northerner in this scenario would want to visit places that have large numbers of black people.
South Florida in a Confederate Victory TL
- Thread starter mikegold
- Start date
I think it is a very good possibility. The confederacy could not inflict a catastrophic defeat on the union where the CSA could issue a long list of withdrawl demands. At best, the confederacy could force the union into a negotiated cease fire that results in CSA independence. The union would keep all relatively pro union areas under Federal control (Kentucky, Missouri, and probably the most pro union counties of West Virginia)
In the weeks prior to the cease fire, the Union could also try to grab additional non contested territory. Miami was very isolated, had naval value and was next to the pro union Florida keys. It would be a very good target for a naval landing followed by a uhmm.... "guided" popular vote where the few locals overwhelmingly request to join the union.
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I might borrow the Miami Gitmo thing for my TL, especially if I want to have southern-central Florida as Maroon country with occasional Confederate punitive expeditions--the Miami enclave could be a way for the Union to surreptitiously arm the Maroons (racist or not, they'll want to spite the Confederates) and even a refuge for the women and children of Maroon bands that get broken by the Confederates.
NothingNow
Banned
Yeah. That's all we'd really see.
I Could certainly see this happening. Tampa Bay might also be a good target, but it's a far harder one to grab than an undeveloped area like that Surrounding Fort Dallas (on the Miami river,) which was still in Union hands, along with Fort Myers, Fort Brooke (in Tampa,) Mullet and Egmont Keys, and a few other military instalations across the area, it might be possible for the USA to extract pretty much everything south of the then Hillsborough and Brevard Counties in a treaty.
1863 map of counties sourced from USF's FCIT program.
Maybe, but crossing a border or two, and make that a couple of unfriendly borders at the most likely, and Cuba or the Bahamas become more likely places to see it. Maybe eventually, but it'll take some doing just like it did IOTL, and people might not be willing to front the effort to do so if Bushwhackers are a threat.
NothingNow
Banned
Also, my thoughts from earlier this week:
The Citrus culture won't develop beyond a local curiosity (like our vineyards) in a nation without the markets of the north, and thus neither will the railroads or the tourism industry that followed the railroads. So it'll be Salt, Sponges, Fish, and Cattle with Sugar as a possible main industry. But Cattle will be the dominant source of income when you get inland, and by a massive margin. This is good, as Cracker Cattle are damn near invincible, and delicious, even if they're small for cattle, and hilariously mean (I've seen one run down and kill a Coyote just for the hell of it.)
Tampa will be the big port for the region, since it's the only real natural Deep water port between New Orleans and Jacksonville, and the Phosphate industry will be big sooner or later, as Bone Valley is a massive deposit of it, and easily accesible for much of the world. Someone will build a railroad connecting Tampa to the rest of the region eventually, probably following the old Military roads from the Seminole Wars, since the terrain's flat enough to do that.
Maybe the Tourism industry will take off there after all that's done, with people coming to visit the Beaches in West Hillsborough (Currently Pinellas County, and it'll need a good road or a railroad first between the two first given how long it took to go between Dunedin and Tampa back then,) and enjoying the springs.
IMO Someone will release monkeys to satisfy the few tourists, or just by misshandling a few crates at a port. They will soon range across the state.
Someone might try drilling off the coast, following the boom in the Western Gulf, and will probably strike oil sooner or later, and find a lot of it. (it's a near certainty that it's under there, but we all agreed that the Industry we have is more important than the Industry they want, also for the most part, we really don't want to be like Texas or Alabama.) The Cigar industry might be more inevitable (but I hate to use that word in this situation) if the Local Tobacco's good enough, and if the laws treat Cubans well enough.
There might not be any tale of Jose Gaspar ITTL, given the circumstances involved in the popularization of the legend, but who knows? Afterall, the man might have been real.
Key West will remain vital as a transshipment port, and will only become more important as Wrecker's base and a Coaling station, although still being held by the Union, along with Fort Jefferson. It's just too damn strategic, and they held it through the war, so they aren't just going to hand it over without a serious fight and naval blockade.
You might not see it attract any immigrants at all ITTL besides Cubans and Bahamians given how shitty the CSA was at attracting such. Still, expect some Cuban Planters to land in Miami or there abouts and try to drain the Everglades to get at the Precious, precious Muck, which is perfect for tropical crops, but they probably won't do to well, between the Seminoles, and any slaves (assuming they brought slave labor, or that it's CSA territory) escaping off to join the Seminoles.
On that note, Black Seminoles were and still are a thing even if they were never officially part of the tribe, and most got expelled to Oklahoma with the majority of the tribe, give me a bit, and I could find a few books on them. Still, from a few dozen to a few hundred Seminoles, you could easily have a couple thousand by the end of the 19th Century. That's about where they were IOTL anyway. The Numbers of official members are always somewhat problematic, given the issue of defining such. It's very much like trying to count Jews, with all the attendant issues.
As for Animals, well, the Ivory billed Woodpecker ought to be only endangered ITTL, since the singer tract up north will likely go unused, along with much of the Suwannee river basin, although paradoxically, the Choctawhatchee River might see more logging. The Carolina Parakeet OTOH should be fine, since Cockleburrs will be everywhere, and while there might not be alot of Farming in North Florida it might not extend as far south, or be as dense, so they could range a bit further and might not get utterly fucked over by Poultry Disease like OTL.
The Everglades won't be as much of a disaster either, with fewer imported species, and the most important industries down there just being Seminoles hunting Gators and Birds for skins and feathers to satisfy the demand among more the Upper classes.
Sandhill cranes, gopher turtles and Burrowing owls ought to be well off as well, since development is what did them in. Hopefully however, no-one introduces Starlings. They'll drive everything else out.
In short, Florida will be a mix of wasted potential and industry, with fewer white folks, and a whole region where it just isn't safe to have that twang in your voice, but still, places will be recognizable. After all, it's Florida, the weird State that is completely it's own place. And without Phosphates, Oil or the Keys, no-one really wants the place.
With a completely different culture, likely a different Language (be it Spanish, Seminole, or an offshoot of Bahamian Creole) and certainly a completely different History, South Florida, (and after a while possibly even parts of North Florida,) will be rather nationalist, and independence-minded, given that they will naturally look south and outward instead of to their north for business and their interests.
Also, some other stuff on Florida that might prove immediately useful:
USGS Map of Coal deposits.
Defining the differences and separation of North And South, with a decent amount of discussion on the Florida Problem.
The Citrus culture won't develop beyond a local curiosity (like our vineyards) in a nation without the markets of the north, and thus neither will the railroads or the tourism industry that followed the railroads. So it'll be Salt, Sponges, Fish, and Cattle with Sugar as a possible main industry. But Cattle will be the dominant source of income when you get inland, and by a massive margin. This is good, as Cracker Cattle are damn near invincible, and delicious, even if they're small for cattle, and hilariously mean (I've seen one run down and kill a Coyote just for the hell of it.)
Tampa will be the big port for the region, since it's the only real natural Deep water port between New Orleans and Jacksonville, and the Phosphate industry will be big sooner or later, as Bone Valley is a massive deposit of it, and easily accesible for much of the world. Someone will build a railroad connecting Tampa to the rest of the region eventually, probably following the old Military roads from the Seminole Wars, since the terrain's flat enough to do that.
Maybe the Tourism industry will take off there after all that's done, with people coming to visit the Beaches in West Hillsborough (Currently Pinellas County, and it'll need a good road or a railroad first between the two first given how long it took to go between Dunedin and Tampa back then,) and enjoying the springs.
IMO Someone will release monkeys to satisfy the few tourists, or just by misshandling a few crates at a port. They will soon range across the state.
Someone might try drilling off the coast, following the boom in the Western Gulf, and will probably strike oil sooner or later, and find a lot of it. (it's a near certainty that it's under there, but we all agreed that the Industry we have is more important than the Industry they want, also for the most part, we really don't want to be like Texas or Alabama.) The Cigar industry might be more inevitable (but I hate to use that word in this situation) if the Local Tobacco's good enough, and if the laws treat Cubans well enough.
There might not be any tale of Jose Gaspar ITTL, given the circumstances involved in the popularization of the legend, but who knows? Afterall, the man might have been real.
Key West will remain vital as a transshipment port, and will only become more important as Wrecker's base and a Coaling station, although still being held by the Union, along with Fort Jefferson. It's just too damn strategic, and they held it through the war, so they aren't just going to hand it over without a serious fight and naval blockade.
You might not see it attract any immigrants at all ITTL besides Cubans and Bahamians given how shitty the CSA was at attracting such. Still, expect some Cuban Planters to land in Miami or there abouts and try to drain the Everglades to get at the Precious, precious Muck, which is perfect for tropical crops, but they probably won't do to well, between the Seminoles, and any slaves (assuming they brought slave labor, or that it's CSA territory) escaping off to join the Seminoles.
On that note, Black Seminoles were and still are a thing even if they were never officially part of the tribe, and most got expelled to Oklahoma with the majority of the tribe, give me a bit, and I could find a few books on them. Still, from a few dozen to a few hundred Seminoles, you could easily have a couple thousand by the end of the 19th Century. That's about where they were IOTL anyway. The Numbers of official members are always somewhat problematic, given the issue of defining such. It's very much like trying to count Jews, with all the attendant issues.
As for Animals, well, the Ivory billed Woodpecker ought to be only endangered ITTL, since the singer tract up north will likely go unused, along with much of the Suwannee river basin, although paradoxically, the Choctawhatchee River might see more logging. The Carolina Parakeet OTOH should be fine, since Cockleburrs will be everywhere, and while there might not be alot of Farming in North Florida it might not extend as far south, or be as dense, so they could range a bit further and might not get utterly fucked over by Poultry Disease like OTL.
The Everglades won't be as much of a disaster either, with fewer imported species, and the most important industries down there just being Seminoles hunting Gators and Birds for skins and feathers to satisfy the demand among more the Upper classes.
Sandhill cranes, gopher turtles and Burrowing owls ought to be well off as well, since development is what did them in. Hopefully however, no-one introduces Starlings. They'll drive everything else out.
In short, Florida will be a mix of wasted potential and industry, with fewer white folks, and a whole region where it just isn't safe to have that twang in your voice, but still, places will be recognizable. After all, it's Florida, the weird State that is completely it's own place. And without Phosphates, Oil or the Keys, no-one really wants the place.
With a completely different culture, likely a different Language (be it Spanish, Seminole, or an offshoot of Bahamian Creole) and certainly a completely different History, South Florida, (and after a while possibly even parts of North Florida,) will be rather nationalist, and independence-minded, given that they will naturally look south and outward instead of to their north for business and their interests.
Also, some other stuff on Florida that might prove immediately useful:
USGS Map of Coal deposits.
Defining the differences and separation of North And South, with a decent amount of discussion on the Florida Problem.
Lycaon pictus
Donor
Also, my thoughts from earlier this week:
The Citrus culture won't develop beyond a local curiosity (like our vineyards) in a nation without the markets of the north, and thus neither will the railroads or the tourism industry that followed the railroads. So it'll be Salt, Sponges, Fish, and Cattle with Sugar as a possible main industry. But Cattle will be the dominant source of income when you get inland, and by a massive margin. This is good, as Cracker Cattle are damn near invincible, and delicious, even if they're small for cattle, and hilariously mean (I've seen one run down and kill a Coyote just for the hell of it.)
Tampa will be the big port for the region, since it's the only real natural Deep water port between New Orleans and Jacksonville, and the Phosphate industry will be big sooner or later, as Bone Valley is a massive deposit of it, and easily accesible for much of the world. Someone will build a railroad connecting Tampa to the rest of the region eventually, probably following the old Military roads from the Seminole Wars, since the terrain's flat enough to do that.
Maybe the Tourism industry will take off there after all that's done, with people coming to visit the Beaches in West Hillsborough (Currently Pinellas County, and it'll need a good road or a railroad first between the two first given how long it took to go between Dunedin and Tampa back then,) and enjoying the springs.
IMO Someone will release monkeys to satisfy the few tourists, or just by misshandling a few crates at a port. They will soon range across the state.
Someone might try drilling off the coast, following the boom in the Western Gulf, and will probably strike oil sooner or later, and find a lot of it. (it's a near certainty that it's under there, but we all agreed that the Industry we have is more important than the Industry they want, also for the most part, we really don't want to be like Texas or Alabama.) The Cigar industry might be more inevitable (but I hate to use that word in this situation) if the Local Tobacco's good enough, and if the laws treat Cubans well enough.
There might not be any tale of Jose Gaspar ITTL, given the circumstances involved in the popularization of the legend, but who knows? Afterall, the man might have been real.
Key West will remain vital as a transshipment port, and will only become more important as Wrecker's base and a Coaling station, although still being held by the Union, along with Fort Jefferson. It's just too damn strategic, and they held it through the war, so they aren't just going to hand it over without a serious fight and naval blockade.
You might not see it attract any immigrants at all ITTL besides Cubans and Bahamians given how shitty the CSA was at attracting such. Still, expect some Cuban Planters to land in Miami or there abouts and try to drain the Everglades to get at the Precious, precious Muck, which is perfect for tropical crops, but they probably won't do to well, between the Seminoles, and any slaves (assuming they brought slave labor, or that it's CSA territory) escaping off to join the Seminoles.
On that note, Black Seminoles were and still are a thing even if they were never officially part of the tribe, and most got expelled to Oklahoma with the majority of the tribe, give me a bit, and I could find a few books on them. Still, from a few dozen to a few hundred Seminoles, you could easily have a couple thousand by the end of the 19th Century. That's about where they were IOTL anyway. The Numbers of official members are always somewhat problematic, given the issue of defining such. It's very much like trying to count Jews, with all the attendant issues.
As for Animals, well, the Ivory billed Woodpecker ought to be only endangered ITTL, since the singer tract up north will likely go unused, along with much of the Suwannee river basin, although paradoxically, the Choctawhatchee River might see more logging. The Carolina Parakeet OTOH should be fine, since Cockleburrs will be everywhere, and while there might not be alot of Farming in North Florida it might not extend as far south, or be as dense, so they could range a bit further and might not get utterly fucked over by Poultry Disease like OTL.
The Everglades won't be as much of a disaster either, with fewer imported species, and the most important industries down there just being Seminoles hunting Gators and Birds for skins and feathers to satisfy the demand among more the Upper classes.
Sandhill cranes, gopher turtles and Burrowing owls ought to be well off as well, since development is what did them in. Hopefully however, no-one introduces Starlings. They'll drive everything else out.
In short, Florida will be a mix of wasted potential and industry, with fewer white folks, and a whole region where it just isn't safe to have that twang in your voice, but still, places will be recognizable. After all, it's Florida, the weird State that is completely it's own place. And without Phosphates, Oil or the Keys, no-one really wants the place.
With a completely different culture, likely a different Language (be it Spanish, Seminole, or an offshoot of Bahamian Creole) and certainly a completely different History, South Florida, (and after a while possibly even parts of North Florida,) will be rather nationalist, and independence-minded, given that they will naturally look south and outward instead of to their north for business and their interests.
Also, some other stuff on Florida that might prove immediately useful:
USGS Map of Coal deposits.
Defining the differences and separation of North And South, with a decent amount of discussion on the Florida Problem.
I've been thinking of doing a CSA timeline of my own. This is all useful.
NothingNow
Banned
No problem. I've got plenty more where that came from. This is where I live and well, it's fucking florida. Our history is weird, complicated, and very, very interesting if like most floridians, you are a licensed real estate broker.
Arming the maroons, especially those who might want to raid northwards into solidly confederate territory could slowly escalate. Spite can work both ways. For example, confederate guerilla groups in Missouri and Kentucky might suddenly acquire new and more capable weapons as well as encouragement to use them. Likewise, Maryland's eastern shore counties see an influx of CSA agitators...
In short, the situation could snowball into civil war II before either side really wants one.
Grabbing Tampa and south is probably possible from a technical aspect, but would grabbing that much lead to Confederate grabs in pro CSA parts of Missouri and Kentucky? The feasibilty of grabbing Tampa may well depend on whether the North suffered a series of miltiary defeats that led to a political change, or simply experienced a political collapse, but was left with an intact army.
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I tend to agree with this. Combine it with the fact that the state was the essential unit in the 19th Century United States and Confederate States both, so much so that particularly in the South and West, the State may have mattered more than the Federal unit. So, I'm not too certain about all of these Federal territories or extraterritorial military bases popping up.
West Virginia is the clearest example of the fix one expects from that era - the admission of a new state based on unionist (or, concievably, secessionist) counties. I find the idea of a "Franklin" built out of NC and TN's Appalachian counties plausible, as well as something carved out of Texas that incorporates German, Hispanic and lightly settled Western counties (of course, that would require a vastly different war in the West).
South Florida is just big enough for this to be plausible, geographically at least, but population-wise? If nothing else, it's a big "ask" at the negotiation table, and might require give elsewhere (say, OTL's Oklahoma or New Mexico.) I don't think its impossible, but I'm not sure it's hugely likely in 1862-4. And the Keys alone, as I've expressed above, are considerably less likely.
All in all, I think the U.S. will underestimate the strategic importance of South Florida and overestimate the principle of state sovereignty (ironic, I know) and abandon it at the negotiating table. After all, U.S. marines occupied a lot of Confederate ports (New Berne, New Orleans, Galveston off and on, etc.) but I've never seen these areas proposed as isolated Federal exclaves. The Anaconda plan made a lot of sense when the Union was going for total victory, but after a negotiated settlement it's obviously unsustaiable. The example of Sumter, too, may be read to indicate the danger to Union forces of being isolated behind Confederate lines.
In short, I think Key West as a Federal Mallorca/Malta is interesting and not completely implausible. But I don't think it's very likely.
NothingNow
Banned
yeah, but we'd see that Bushwhacking and Partisan activity anyway, and "accidentally" letting the Militia's stores go missing is both a convenient excuse, and a good pretext to disarm pro-csa groups.
Agreed, but it's an issue of holding what they have. If they manage to take it while attempting to set into motion the Anaconda plan, and there was a forced/negotiated peace, there's no way in hell they'd give it up, unless the CSA promised something valuable in return.
Here's a question - if this is so, where's the North American citrus market centered? I imagine that the Central Valley and Orange County still develop as centers (and, with fewer alternate sources, Orange County might remain more agricultural even if something like LA develops as per OTL).
What about the Rio Grande Valley? I'm not sure when citrus cultivation began in that region, but could it concievably be bigger than Florida in that industry ITTL? I like the idea of a TL where Texas is known for its oranges, and Florida for its beef!
Another candidate that springs to mind is the Bahamas, or somewhere else in the West Indies.
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NothingNow
Banned
I could see Rio Grande for the CSA, along with Northern Florida, but I'm more concerned with how well the fruit would travel, and how long it would travel. TBH it's something I've got to do some research on.
I know (Key) Limes (not those nasty-ass Persian Limes) will be a thing in Florida, as will preserving Citrus for Maritime Use, so the industry will be there, as it has been from the beginning, but I don't see whole fruit being a thing till much later without folks like Flagler and Plant building railroads.
If it can make it to market in time from the Bahamas, it could easily make it from anywhere in South East Florida. I doubt the fruit would travel well from California to the east, although the weather enroute would seriously affect this, especially in the Sierra Nevadas and Rockies. Maybe Texas would be a major Citrus state, serving the west to Appalachia?
Any TL where Key Limes are predominant over Persian Limes will be an improvement over OTL in at least one respect!
I am unsure about Franklin. TN and NC were long established states. As Mikegold mentioned, state territorial integrity was a very valued concept and I dont think a victorious CSA would allow any divisions in established states, unless these areas were already under union control. Also union support though strong in east TN, was more nominal in western NC.
Ironically, losing some Virginia counties may be acceptable if these counties were already occupied and were strongly unionist.
I think a Keys and "Miami" siezure would be psychologically far more easier to tolerate by the CSA (Florida was a relatively new state, Miami and the Keys were very isolated and had little population except Maroons and a few unionists). Though Texas was new as well, German unionists were landlocked and their movement was being dismantled by rabidly pro CSA militias.
That is a good point. Maybe though, the union could still have enough military strength to say "We will have to leave New Orleans etc., we wont press for a Franklin, but.... we are keeping WV counties currently under union control and do you really want to fight over far south Florida? You cannot even get there through the 'glades and we have a real navy."
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That argument works if Union South Florida doesn't include Tampa Bay, which is relatively accessible overland. And if we're only talking about the far south, what population base are we talking about? How does it compare to the populations of "Battle Born" Nevada or West Virginia? Because it it's too small, the argument of protecting Union sympathizers is voided and it clearly becomes a naked land grab, and therefore a much tougher sell.
Incidentally, that argument would be used by the Confederates to promote their claim to New Orleans, whose (white) population was very pro-CSA and famously demonstrated all sorts of civil disobedience to Governor Ben Butler.
As a tangent to the maint topic, what would a pro-Union South Florida in a CSA victory TL look like?
NothingNow
Banned
Fort Brooke's also insanely easy for the navy to resupply, and has two sub stations nearby, while there isn't a rail connection within 200 miles, only a stagecoach to Gainsville, and Tampa isn't worth much without Egmont Key and Mullet Key, which should be easy for the navy to hold.
As for the counties we're looking at, there's 7,077 persons and about 388k head of Cattle as of the 1860 census, with 2981 people in Hillsborough, 2913 in Monroe, 854 in Manatee, 246 in Brevard and 83 in Dade. 4155 of them were born in the US, mostly southerners.
Key West, which has ~2900 people, including about 500 slaves, is mostly Bahamian, with Yankees, Cubans, and free blacks filling out the remainder.
Tampa, the only other city worth speaking of at the time had 885 people, mostly Georgians, Florida natives, and other southerners. Hillsborough and Manatee had a few Cotton plantations, and a lot of Tobacco, but most farming in the region was still Subsistence level stuff in the sandier coastal soils the average farm was between 40 and 100 acres. The largest plantation in Hillsborough was about 500 acres, and near Indian Rocks. There were 564 slaves in Hillsborough, forming 18% of the Population.
Manatee county has a few Sugarcane plantations, although Joseph Braden's Mill was dismantled in 1857. Manatee had 253 slaves as of 1860, or about 25% of the county population.
That's manageable with troops on the ground, and some more homesteaders being sent in to counter the cattle ranchers, Cotton planters and the folks in Manatee county.
Pretty much everyone in miami, all fifty or so of them were involved in cultivating arrowroot.
The Source for my Numbers is South Florida in 1860 by Rodney E. Dillon Jr. from the April 1982 edition of The Florida Historical Quarterly. If you have JSTOR Access it's pretty easy to get.
NothingNow
Banned
Heavily managed by the Military Governor, majorly settled from outside, as it can't be that hard to find 4000 men willing to settle in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, or along the East Coast, given how many took up land offers in the much less accommodating west, and how many flooded in from Cuba anyway following the failed revolution IOTL. It'd pretty much be a territory that's armed to the teeth, and fairly well fortified too, but intensely valuable, just from the city of Key West.
the Main Concentration of population would be in the west, with maybe a fifth of the population outside the Western counties at most
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That's awfully small for a new state, though I don't think Nevada was much more populous.
Carving out a federal territory from an existing state would be a stranger precedent. Arguably, though, Texas's cession of its Western land claims could be invoked.
Well, I'm pretty convinced that the United State of South Florida is possible. I still think it's a little unlikely, but that depends on how exactly Confederate independence is achieved. The CSA would be a lot bigger after a successful Antietam campaign, then it would in a negotiated settlement after a failed Atlanta campaign and a McClellan presidency.
There must be a better name than South Florida. The State of Seminole? The State of Osceola? The state of Everglade? The State of Okeechobee? The State of Manatee? The State of Flamingo?
On the other hand, West Virginia has a pretty boring name, so these might just be wishful thinking.
NothingNow
Banned
yeah, and it'd be better to make it a territory, since most of the voters in the region would actually in all likelyhood be pro-confederate, with the exception of Key West. Crackers were like pretty much all other smallholders in the South.
That's the only real if in the situation.
De Soto? De Leon? Jackson? Calusa?
Maybe.