alternatehistory.com

Foreign Policy magazine online currently has an article entitled "A Maritime Balkans of the 21st Century" - http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articl...alkans_of_the_21st_century_east_asia?page=0,1 - which directly compares East Asia now to the Balkans in 1914. There has been a spate of articles like this over the last few months.

So what if it happens?

What if the rising nationalist/resource clashes between China, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines leads to war between China and one or more of these? The United States has defence treaties with at least two of the possible players and can't stand aside. Japan and South Korea have large nuclear industries and the ability to build IRBM's to deliver them. That would take a few years and not be a factor in a war this year obviously, but if one or the other felt abandoned by the US they could do it.

So, who would the players be, how big and nasty could it get - some dogfights and a few pilots lost:confused: or naval battles, trade shuts down, the Chinese short and medium range ballistic missile force hammering flat Kadena Airforce Base in Okinawa while one or more US Carrier Strike Groups is attacked :eek:- what?

Realistically, how bad could it actually get? Would South Korea side with Japan under these circumstances given how much they hate them? Assuming the sort of nationalist and historic revenge thinking that is supposedly present sanity and sensible ROE could go right out the window. What happens to the world economy or just the local economies if merchant shipping starts avoiding the area?
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