South China Sea war of 2013 What If?

Foreign Policy magazine online currently has an article entitled "A Maritime Balkans of the 21st Century" - http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articl...alkans_of_the_21st_century_east_asia?page=0,1 - which directly compares East Asia now to the Balkans in 1914. There has been a spate of articles like this over the last few months.

So what if it happens?

What if the rising nationalist/resource clashes between China, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines leads to war between China and one or more of these? The United States has defence treaties with at least two of the possible players and can't stand aside. Japan and South Korea have large nuclear industries and the ability to build IRBM's to deliver them. That would take a few years and not be a factor in a war this year obviously, but if one or the other felt abandoned by the US they could do it.

So, who would the players be, how big and nasty could it get - some dogfights and a few pilots lost:confused: or naval battles, trade shuts down, the Chinese short and medium range ballistic missile force hammering flat Kadena Airforce Base in Okinawa while one or more US Carrier Strike Groups is attacked :eek:- what?

Realistically, how bad could it actually get? Would South Korea side with Japan under these circumstances given how much they hate them? Assuming the sort of nationalist and historic revenge thinking that is supposedly present sanity and sensible ROE could go right out the window. What happens to the world economy or just the local economies if merchant shipping starts avoiding the area?
 
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"some dogfights and a few pilots lost" - most likely

"naval battles" - why? The US navy or the Japanese etc. do not need that, the PLN do not really have the assets to force that (like: commiting vessels past the Taiwan or Thusima strait, etc). Maybe some sub hunting, but still not a good idea.

"trade shuts down" - well, after a few weeks if no one backs down, likely, but thats a very serious move (distant blockade of the PRC should have some very serious consequences).

"ballsitic hammering" - uhhh, risky move, very risky. Extremely risky. Russian rulette move.

Soooo... not even option a, i think.
 
Don't you guys consider that what China and Japan are doing extremely bizarre: having Waltz party above Tiaoyutai skies while simultaneously negotiating a free trade agreement.

Personally I see Japanese Zaibatsu a far more severe threat to China than their F-15s...

In the end, the Chicoms will not only betray Chinese territory to Japan, but also Chinese economy.

Chuan
 
Hmm too economically interconnected, only a short term war plausible, nationalist passions will blow over in a few days.

see 'Guns of August'

Not a prediction but when people pop off warshots things can get out of control very quickly.

Just how experienced at crisis management (of themselves) do you think the governments involved really are.
 
In almost all outcomes I can see this going about the same direction as the various modern border wars between states in Latin America: people puff their chests out, declare total victory after occupying unimportant objectives, and everyone eventually goes home.
 
Chinese posturing with Japan is unlikely to go too far - too dangerous (US-Japan security treaty) & financially too risky. More intimidation in S. China Sea against minor players like Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei etc likely to increase, with actions like unilaterally occupying some of the minimal reefs/islets that are disputed in some cases expanding them with fill to make them above water 24/7 - transforming them from reefs/rocks to "islands". Latter is already happening. The reason for this is you can't make a claim of territorial waters or economic zone centered on reef only exposed part time, can centered on island.

Once bullets start flying or there is ANY restriction on sea borne trade the US is likely to get involved pretty quickly as issues around freedom of navigation etc are very very central to US policy (like forever). Any serious confrontation between the US & China will hurt China way more, cutting of trade or serious restrictions in US-China trade will be uncomfortable for the US, but disasterous for China - severe cutbacks in Chinese exports to the US will result in massive unemployment in China (=serious social unrest). Furthermore long term would result in more of the key manufacturing (like electronics etc) that US has outsourced to China being repatriated permanently (this is already beginning for other reasons).

Net thought - South China Sea potentially dangerous, unlikely to go boom BUT there is potential to spin out of control.
 
I think China is trying to wedge Taiwan and Japan apart first, and is also hoping to get off its export economy before a war starts. So I'm doubtful this year will see one unless something sever happens, but by 2020 who knows.
 
Yes the USA has defense treaties with Japan and South Korea, and to all intents and purposes the Phillipines as well. If a war breaks out between China and one or more of these countries over rights in the South China Sea, I see the following as most likely:

Very limited military actions between aircraft and/or ships to show the flag and make statements. US makes it very clear to its allies that US military support would only be to provide defense of the homeland from Chinese attack and that even this is contingent on its allies not undertaking offensive military action in the disputed area or against China proper. US makes this policy clear to China and informs PRC that US will enter the conflict directly if China escalates. Conflict ends within days or weeks with no final resolution.
 
One thing to add to zoomar's comment - the USA will not accept any Chinese restrictions on freedom of navigation in S. China Sea or east of coast. These sorts of restrictions (whether claiming expanded fishing/oil exploration zones, requiring "inspection for safety" of all ships transiting "economic/territorial waters, etc) simply won't be tolerated even if they are only applied to Japanese, Taiwanese, Vietnamese etc ships not to US & Europeans.
 
What becomes a possibility is SE Asian nations turning more and more towards India as a counterbalance to China. Singapore and Vietnam already have naval basing/training agreements with the Indian Navy with INS ships coming through SEA every few months on routine tours of duty.
 
What becomes a possibility is SE Asian nations turning more and more towards India as a counterbalance to China. Singapore and Vietnam already have naval basing/training agreements with the Indian Navy with INS ships coming through SEA every few months on routine tours of duty.

IIRC, the INS patrols the islands disputed by Vietnam and China as well.
 
A war of this kind usually comes when someone is worried about a window closing.

China is unlikely to initiate hostilites (responding may be different) unless it feels that time is running out for them in some way.

IMO for China the window is still getting a little wider but will start to close by the mid 2020's. That's when the real trouble could start.

By the 2020's Vietnam and the Philippines will grow in strength in comparison to China while the relative decline of the US will start to end too. China needs to get what it wants in the 2020's. After that India, Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia start to combine against her.

Germany 1910's!
 
Actually the Chinese (anyone really)can simply take the islands by force , they just have to believe that noone else will shoot first and that no one will be prepared to launch a counterattack.

Basically the Argentine strategy for the Falklands war, overwhelming force and dare you do anything about it.

Is it credible that right now a divided US Congress and a President concerned with domestic affairs and with a track record of leading from behind, with a new inexperienced SofS and SecDef would at least be hesitant in supporting Japan and maybe settle for restraining a generally pacifistic ally. Yes.

Is it credible that a Japanese Government orders its force on the Islands to shoot back, And being Japanese they probably have direct video links to every billboard in Tokyo, the whole thing goes pear shaped from a Chinese perspective and both Japanese and US aircraft get scrambled in support of the defenders.

and this is the sort of way miscalculations can happen.

Part of the problem with some of the arguments put forward is that it assumes both parties are acting rationally. Generally speaking both sides in a war start off thinking they can win and at least one of them is very, very wrong and therefore acting irrationally by definition. Part of the problem is the potential size of the prize. Someone mentioned a window closing, What if the window the Chinese see is a mix of a genuine US pivot to the Pacific combined with a coming Shia Sunni war with Both Europe and the US being much less dependent on middle east oil.

We have a dying Chavez, increasing Anglo French interest and probable control of North and West African oil sources, Fracking etc all reducing dependence on mid east oil. A Qatar sized oilfield all of their own could be seen as a national necessity

Again very unlikely but worrying.
 
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