South china sea conflagration

Assessment of the 1988 scenario. The PLAN curb-stomps the locals. They have the numbers and their shore-based PLAAF air is better than anyone (except the Americans who tangled with it on several occasions.) assumes.

Chances of the Americans coming in to redress the result? 40-60 against. The Americans think they still need the PRC and there is no upside.

The US is not helping Vietnam in 1988, the US did not even have diplomatic relations with Vietnam and a halfway decent chunk of the American public who had been raised on a steady diet of Chuck Norris and Sylvester Stallone movies believed the Vietnamese were still holding American POWs. Nobody batted an eyelash over the dustup that actually occurred in 1988, if the Chinese grab a few more Vietnamese held islands, nobody else is going to care.
 
It's not a question of going to war over some micro-islands, but more of an issue of attacking allied nations, Taiwan and the Philippines in our case, and Vietnam in the case of the USSR. They may not choose to go to war for those nations, but they could.

There was actually considerable cooperation between China and Taiwan in the South China Sea in the late 1980s, the Chinese are not going to attack Taiwan down there at the time. If anything, Taiwan's forces will support the Chinese, like they actually did in 1988.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
So superpower involvement is probably out of question but several regional players may join forces to resist china
Is a vietnamese+ Philippine + malaysia + Indonesia warpact possible to resist china ?
 
Is America willing to risk the price over some small island's?
And will the Soviets risk launching themselves into economic oblivion for those islands?

Who said anything about Uncle? PACFLT will roll on the decks and laugh their aspidistras off.

And that means, that the inept ship user will find the worst possible way to foul it ALL up in this ATL (See OP.).

When the Russians are involved in any goofery, it can only go south in a big hurry. Don't believe me? 29 million dead they suffered in WW II. They WON that war. Imagine, though if their allies had not been there to pitch in and take 40% of the load? Still Russia would have won, but there would have been nothing left of them after the victory.
 
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