South china sea conflagration

Khanzeer

Banned
PRC and Vietnam fought naval battles over paracel islands in 74 and 88
WI sometime between this period PRC goes for a full fledged assault on all South china sea islands inc their disputes with Taiwan, Philippines and Vietnam?
How will these nations and their allies respond?
Obviously Chinese will not start hostilities anywhere else i.e no land war with Vietnam, no invasion of Taiwan etc
But do they have the naval capacity to take over these islands in the 1975 to 1987 period? And keep this a limited conflict ?
 
At the end of that time frame China had around 117 subs (7 nuclear including boomers), 19 destroyers, 34 frigates and hundreds of small combatants, so yeah, it certainly had the numbers. At the time, both Taiwan and the Philippines were operating mostly WWII-vintage ships and Vietnam was in about the same shape.

The question would be the US 7th fleet, as well as what the Soviets (still at Cam Ranh Bay) thought about all of this.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
At the end of that time frame China had around 117 subs (7 nuclear including boomers), 19 destroyers, 34 frigates and hundreds of small combatants, so yeah, it certainly had the numbers. At the time, both Taiwan and the Philippines were operating mostly WWII-vintage ships and Vietnam was in about the same shape.
Will Malaysia or Indonesia contest Chinese claims too ?

WI chinese offer to cooperate more against Soviets to appease the US
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Malaysia might, but I don't see Indonesia getting involved, although I'm sure Jakarta would be keeping a close eye on things.
Airpower would probably not be an issue as I dont see any of the combatants having aircraft with range to interfere in naval battles, or am I underestimating them ?

P.s maybe chinese H5 bombers ? And perhaps F5 fighter bombers ?
 
Airpower would probably not be an issue as I dont see any of the combatants having aircraft with range to interfere in naval battles, or am I underestimating them ?

P.s maybe chinese H5 bombers ? And perhaps F5 fighter bombers ?
Depending on where the battles took place perhaps the Vietnamese F5's might be able to play a role ?

Edit to add:
Sorry,
Am not sure if your were prior post was re the Vietnamese F5's or perhaps a Chinese F5 ?
 
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Let's try and bound the problem. The Chinese are not going to take on everyone - the Philippines are a US treaty ally so they will not attack them. Taiwan will actually support a land grab by Beijing because both sides have the same overall claim (the 9 Dash Line Map predates the PRC). In fact, during the 1988 campaign, Taiwan's forces on Itu Aba (Taiwan's island in the Spratly Islands) supplied the PRC forces with fresh water (Itu Aba is the only island in the Spratly chain with a natural source of fresh water).

Both in the 1974 and 1988 campaigns the PRC exploited seems in the international environment. The Paracel Islands in 1974 were held by South Vietnam so North Vietnam and the Soviet Union were not going to come to their aid and by then the US had decided to throw South Vietnam under the bus in favor of better relations with the PRC. In 1988 in the Spratly dust up the Soviet Union was in no position to help the Vietnamese and the US certainly wasn't going to do it either as the CW was still going on.

So let's say after the successful 1988 campaign, in late 1989 while everyone else is focused on events in Eastern Europe and the teetering Communist Bloc, the Chinese decide to go hard after Vietnamese possessions in the Spratly Islands (Vietnam holds 40+ features in that island chain). Yeah, I think they can probably get away with it.
 
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Khanzeer

Banned
Depending on where the battles took place perhaps the Vietnamese F5's might be able to play a role ?

Edit to add:
Sorry,
Am not sure if your were prior post was re the Vietnamese F5's or perhaps a Chinese F5 ?
No I meant Northrop f5 of Philippines and Taiwan
 
Another possibility would be during the 1979 border conflict with Vietnam, the PRC decides to go on the offensive in the Spratly Islands as well. The US will probably stay out of it (certainly not going to help Vietnam) but the Soviets are in a better position to help their client than they would be 10 years later.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Another possibility would be during the 1979 border conflict with Vietnam, the PRC decides to go on the offensive in the Spratly Islands as well. The US will probably stay out of it (certainly not going to help Vietnam) but the Soviets are in a better position to help their client than they would be 10 years later.
Soviets have almost no surface ships in Vietnam, but their AvMF units and SS/SSN can perhaps participate in trying to stem the tide of PLAN
 
Would the soviets take the chance of starting a land war with china ? I mean they can lose the whole soviet far east ?
I doubt the Soviets would have lost. I could maybe see the Soviets not wining a clear cut victory, but loosing to the Chinese seems unlikely to me.
 
Will Malaysia or Indonesia contest Chinese claims too ?

Indonesia's diplomatic relationship with China was frozen prior to 1990 due to the Soeharto Government's suspicion that the Chinese Government provided backing to the 1965 Coup Attempt which it claims to be perpetrated by the Indonesian Communist Party. It's very likely Indonesia won't just remain quiet if it saw China making a move on disputed islands.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Indonesia's diplomatic relationship with China was frozen prior to 1990 due to the Soeharto Government's suspicion that the Chinese Government provided backing to the 1965 Coup Attempt which it claims to be perpetrated by the Indonesian Communist Party. It's very likely Indonesia won't just remain quiet if it saw China making a move on disputed islands.
Indonesia has a sizable navy [ even before they bought half of GDR navy] so maybe they can be used to support Philippine, if US does not want direct involvement?
 
Let's try and bound the problem. The Chinese are not going to take on everyone - the Philippines are a US treaty ally so they will not attack them. Taiwan will actually support a land grab by Beijing because both sides have the same overall claim (the 9 Dash Line Map predates the PRC). In fact, during the 1988 campaign, Taiwan's forces on Itu Aba (Taiwan's island in the Spratly Islands) supplied the PRC forces with fresh water (Itu Aba is the only island in the Spratly chain with a natural source of fresh water).

Both in the 1974 and 1988 campaigns the PRC exploited seems in the international environment. The Paracel Islands in 1974 were held by South Vietnam so North Vietnam and the Soviet Union were not going to come to their aid and by then the US had decided to throw South Vietnam under the bus in favor of better relations with the PRC. In 1988 in the Spratly dust up the Soviet Union was in no position to help the Vietnamese and the US certainly wasn't going to do it either as the CW was still going on.

So let's say after the successful 1988 campaign, in late 1989 while everyone else is focused on events in Eastern Europe and the teetering Communist Bloc, the Chinese decide to go hard after Vietnamese possessions in the Spratly Islands (Vietnam holds 40+ features in that island chain). Yeah, I think they can probably get away with it.

Assessment of the 1988 scenario. The PLAN curb-stomps the locals. They have the numbers and their shore-based PLAAF air is better than anyone (except the Americans who tangled with it on several occasions.) assumes.

Chances of the Americans coming in to redress the result? 40-60 against. The Americans think they still need the PRC and there is no upside.
 
Is America willing to risk the price over some small island's?
And will the Soviets risk launching themselves into economic oblivion for those islands?


"Yes there have been wars fought over more stupid reasons but the American people won't be happy if Nuclear weapons are used"
 
Is America willing to risk the price over some small island's?
And will the Soviets risk launching themselves into economic oblivion for those islands?


"Yes there have been wars fought over more stupid reasons but the American people won't be happy if Nuclear weapons are used"

It's not a question of going to war over some micro-islands, but more of an issue of attacking allied nations, Taiwan and the Philippines in our case, and Vietnam in the case of the USSR. They may not choose to go to war for those nations, but they could.
 
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