South Antietam Win

Before we can imagine the impacts of a Southern victory, we must also imagine a plausible scenario for the Confederates winning. Let’s assume that the South won the battle of Antietam and that Britain stepped in to support the Confederacy. A peace treaty was signed on a Union gunboat on the Potomac river.

The Potomac Treaty had several terms:
1. The USA shall recognize the CSA as an independent state.
2. The USA-CSA border shall run along the southern border of these states: Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri. Northwest Arkansas shall be annexed by Missouri.
3. All prisoners of war shall be returned to their respective country.
4. Indian and New Mexico Territories are given to the CSA.
5. The Union Navy shall not harass CSA shipping.
6. USA shipping through the Chesapeake Bay will not be disturbed by the CSA.
7. The Union will leave all forts on CSA territory except for the fort and naval base on Dry Tortugas Island.
8. The USA will move their capital from Washington to another city outside of artillery range from the CSA side of the border.

The USA was significantly humbled by the treaty. With a decimated (in the literal sense, 1 in ten soldiers killed) army and navy, and the spirit of the union depleted, independence-seeking Oregon and California leave. The Confederacy, also without much purpose now that the yankees were gone, dissolved into a EU-like alliance with an incredibly weak central government, that only served as a coordinator of military forces.
The Southern economy, particularly in the Deep South, was dependent on exports to Europe. Free-trade policies boosted this. Port cities like Mobile, Savannah, Miami, New Orleans and Corpus Christi had significant population booms. In the North,the economy was not as good. Entire factories that once processed Southern cotton laid empty. Immigrant mobs ran through the streets of New York, Boston, Baltimore, Chicago and other cities, leaving fire and rubble behind them.
The South stayed as a confederacy. Blacks were kept as slaves and were increasingly used as factory, not agricultural labor. Poor white farmers (often called rednecks derogatorily) revolted in Alabama and Louisiana on several occasions.
The constant riots in the North eventually forced President Hannibal Hamlin to resign. His successor often declared martial law to deal with them and eventually the USA became a cruel military dictatorship just as ethnocentric and racist as the South, often forcibly putting Irish, Scots, Germans, and Swedes into ghettos. Gatling and later Maxim guns were used in public executions of anyone with connections to the South. Amid the turmoil, Abraham Lincoln fled to Canada where he would die in 1881.
The real victor here was California. Rich in natural resources and flush with a new workforce at just the right moment, the average income of a Californian soared to the highest in North America. The stable democracy here was one of only two in the continent, the other being Oregon (which also ruled over OTL Washington and Idaho.) Slavery was banned in both of these nations. They still had occasional outbreaks of anti-Chinese violence, however.
As there was never a Spanish-American war, Spain remained a great colonial power much later. Also, Russia, not America, benefited from the Klondike Gold Rush as Seward had been executed by Gatling Gun in 1866 and had never purchased Alaska for the US. Sitka and Kodiak became the dominant cities in Alaska and Russia was able to modernize more, due to increased revenue. This led them to win the Russian-Japanese war and take Sakhalin and Hokkaido from Japan.
World War I started in a similar way to our World War I when a Serbian nationalist assassinated an important Austrian-Hungarian figure and the empire attacking. However, Russia never got involved as they were busy fighting a native rebellion in Alaska at the time. Austria-Hungary, Germany, and the Ottoman Empire dominated Europe and started the dreaded “Kaiser-reich” that hung over Europe for many years.
Flash-forward to America in 2013. The confederacy is superficial if anything. Technology has made slavery outdated and economically not useful, and while only Louisiana and Florida have officially taken it off the books, it is not commonly used anymore. The CSA has expelled Native Americans, freed blacks, Hispanics and the rare Asian to the “Colored Territory” in OTL Oklahoma. The CT is a giant ghetto that is like Detroit, the bad parts of Afghanistan, and the worst reservation ever merged together. Armed gangs roam the unpaved streets with grenade launchers, alcohol and drugs are serious problems, and extremist paganism is prevalent. On top of this all, extremely racist guards mostly from Texas often poison the scant food provided.
The USA is little better. Freedom Johnson, the latest dictator, recently died from polonium poisoning blamed on the German-heritage people in the USA. The country promptly broke up into civil war, and the death toll has topped 100,000.
California is a thriving nation on the west coast. Through their trade with (still imperial, communism never happened) China and Japan, they became the undisputed rulers of the Pacific Ocean. They annexed Oregon and fought a war with Mexico to get Baja California. As of 2013 their main agenda is getting the French to hand over Hawaii. They will use their military if necessary.
Germany and Austria-Hungary still lord over Europe. The Kaiser-Reich has stunted both democracy and communism and caused scientific progress to stall. Airplanes weren’t invented until 1922 (2 years after TTL World War started) and nuclear technology didn’t come around until 1961 when Spain (with Enrico Fermi!) made an atomic bomb to dissuade a Kaiser-Reich invasion. In 2013 technology is at OTL 1990 levels.
Sectionalist, anti-central government ideology is prevalent throughout the Americas. Quebec and Cascadia were able to secede from Canada, the Maya formed their own state in Guatemala, Acre never became part of Peru, and Patagonian rebels constantly attack the Argentine government. Arab nationalists have attacked the Ottoman Empire several times, in 2008 they blew up a gate at Suleiman IX’s palace in Istanbul.
Overall, a South-won world is not a pleasant place, but it is not entirely the CSA’s fault. The USA, Britain, France, the German Kaisers, the Turks, and the Russians all had a part to play.

But how do I post images? The "Insert Image" button asks for a URL. Why?
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Okay, where to start? First off, the South "winning" the Battle of Antietam is not really plausible given the disparity in numbers and the desperate situation in which the Southern army found itself. The Northern army being routed and driven from the field was never in the cards. I would reword it to be a Southern victory in the "Maryland Campaign" as a whole, which is far more plausible and could indeed have led to foreign recognition of the Confederacy, as you describe.



The USA-CSA border shall run along the southern border of these states: Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri. Northwest Arkansas shall be annexed by Missouri.

Much of Kentucky and West Virginia was under Confederate control at this time, so I suppose they could have traded that land for West Tennessee and New Orleans in the negotiations.

Indian and New Mexico Territories are given to the CSA.

The Indian Territory, perhaps, but not the New Mexico Territory. The Southern army had already been driven from the territory and it was all firmly under Union control. The Union has no reason to give it up, the South has no ability to project power into it, and the South has more important things to worry about in the negotiations.

The USA will move their capital from Washington to another city outside of artillery range from the CSA side of the border.

Sure, but there's no reason for this to be included in the peace treaty. If the Union decided to do it, they'd just do it on their own.

independence-seeking Oregon and California leave.

Maybe, but not right away. It would take a few years for political conditions to change.

Port cities like Mobile, Savannah, Miami, New Orleans and Corpus Christi had significant population booms.

Miami didn't exist at the time, as southern Florida was nothing but a swampy wilderness inhabited by Indian tribes. There's no economy there to export anything. And Corpus Christi would have been a second fiddle to Galveston as far as Texas is concerned.

In the North,the economy was not as good. Entire factories that once processed Southern cotton laid empty.

This makes no sense. They'd still be processing Southern cotton after a Confederate victory. It's not in the interests of either side to cut off economic ties just because the South has won its independence.

Immigrant mobs ran through the streets of New York, Boston, Baltimore, Chicago and other cities, leaving fire and rubble behind them.

Why?

Blacks were kept as slaves and were increasingly used as factory, not agricultural labor.

Sadly, this could well have been true.

Poor white farmers (often called rednecks derogatorily) revolted in Alabama and Louisiana on several occasions.

Revolt? Don't think so. Engage in radical populist political action? Maybe.

The constant riots in the North eventually forced President Hannibal Hamlin to resign. His successor often declared martial law to deal with them and eventually the USA became a cruel military dictatorship just as ethnocentric and racist as the South, often forcibly putting Irish, Scots, Germans, and Swedes into ghettos. Gatling and later Maxim guns were used in public executions of anyone with connections to the South.

There would be political turmoil in the North and the old divisions between nativists and foreigners would probably resurface more than IOTL, but the scenario you're describing is far, far too pessimistic.

As for the rest, you need to account for butterflies. Yes, Russia might not have sold off Alaska in a CS Victory TL, but there's no reason to think that there would be a Russo-Japanese War or a World War I in anything like the same manner as OTL.

Overall, this is an interesting but unrealistically dystopian scenario. Still, a fun read!
 
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