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An Alternate History of South America

Part One

In this alternate history, the USA doesn't do quite so well in the Revolutionary War and 1812, becoming more isolationist but no less successful as a result, with the Monroe-Canning Doctrine solidifying the uneasy neutrality between Anglo-Saxon Protestants which had existed after the Napoleonic Era. The Revolutionary wars in the New World go....just a little bit differently....butterflying to create a series of states which are both more powerful and ambitious but somewhat resemble the Geopolitical balance dominant there.

With a free hand in the New World, the US looks on for a while-content to see the European Empires keep their distance-yet there are some who seek to expand America's backyard. Early Protestant missions were already present in Central America and received generous support from the Capitol, while trade with the USA had already heavily influenced the region between Mexico and Columbia. While local post-colonial elites saw their privileged status endangered by US influence and Capitalist-Republican culture which seemed set to undermine their position as the sole conduits of state power. In 1848 the imprisonment of Protestant missionaries in San Salvador and subsequent failure of the diplomatic mission led to the dispatch of the US Pacific Fleet to the port with a Marine Brigade and a battalion of Cubans painstakingly transported, lent by the Spanish. The Central Americans fought hard, and while part of their capitol was left in ruins, they held-and US forces mounted another attack further south at Leon, quickly seizing the poorly defended city of Managua. Following a successful repulse of Central American forces sent south and consolidation of held territory the Central Americans were forced to cede the provinces of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Despite an initial backlash, the war intending only to defend Protestant Missionaries, US policy soon changed and focused on the acquisition of further territory. With Justo Sierra O’Reilly's efforts bringing Yucatan into the American sphere as a protectorate, the scene seemed set to consolidate the remnants of the Central Americans' power. The remainder of the century saw Yucatan and the USA divide the remaining Central American lands, with Mexico, Gran Colombia, Brazil, Argentina and the other South American powers building up what strength they can muster against a rising American Empire, while in the shadows a new idea, of Pan-Latin Unity led by the ECAL faction rises to prominence continent-wide, with its' Conquistador ideals and militaristic nature, begins a series of influential movements within the armies and financial elites of Latin America.

The US mostly restricts itself to managing its' Central American colonies and protectorates, expanding to include Gran Colombia after the civil war there prompts a whole-hearted US intervention and peace-keeping force, wholly committing to keeping their head of state in power yet gradually taking power themselves after it becomes clear he has less support among his people than the US army does. The Panama Canal is obtained in a series of cessions, this time directly administered as part of US Central America. This is widely seized upon and a Canal Protection Movement forms (The Canal had been a project discussed and partially funded by South American nations), which prompts widespread protests and leads to the liberal rebellions of 72' in Argentina, whose wealth had largely bankrolled the Southern Independent Nations Organization but whose' elites were increasingly seen to be incompetent and weak in the face of external pressure, as European Empires support and benefit from American Isolationism.

Due to changing domestic conditions, the US holds back on any further expansion in the area-focusing on building up trade with the Southerners. It seemed as if Pax Americana had been established and built to last, with increasing prosperity growing from isolation (Or exploitation, depends on the viewer really) Yet the First Pan-American War would change all that in the 1940's.


Part 2

Opposition to US dominance took precedent from both ends of the political spectrum. The left propagated a socialist vision of a working class revolt against the American businesses, while the right claimed that strength was needed to resist US power, and that was the reason for domestic humiliation at US hands. While it seemed the aristocratic forces placed in power by the anti-colonial wars were fairly resilient, it did not take too long for their facade to crack. Brazil was the first to fall, its' increasingly irrelevant Imperial Monarchy was only really kept in power by Western powers unwilling to see it fall, real power being held by provincial governors who had too many anti-capitalist rallies around to worry about other matters. Eventually, the Brazilian Imperial system turned inwards, demoting anyone seen as likely to upset the status-quo. When a unit of National Guardsmen revolted in the Matto Grosso, the revolt spread so quickly among the army that few could stop it. Despite initial promise, a compromise between the military and civilian government that had overturned the Monarchy saw quite so much tumult that Monarchists even briefly re-gained power, only to re-start the political game once more. Local Generals dictated the rule of law in the south, fighting over control of the capitol, and along with it international support which still expected a quick solution. A semblance of democratic government was held together in the north, with various factions developing, among them a hard-line socialist one and a branch increasingly affiliated with ECAL. This governments' triumphal Great Southern March gained much fanfare on its' way to the capitol, only to descend into infighting after each member of the Southern March coalition peeled off once more. By this time an entire generation in Brazil had been born that knew nothing but war, and for many hope was a strange word, the idea of a unified nation a distant and fleeting memory among the anarchy.

Argentina was next to fall, having attempted to pick apart Brazil's southern provinces and all of Uruguay bar the port of Montevideo, held by the British on behalf of the Brazilian government. Its' governments' humiliation at the hands of the Andean empire (Peru-Bolivia-Chile under ECAL) had greatly increased socialist presence there, and the resulting loss of the entire Argentinian fleet-its' hold on Patagonia and concessions in Southern Brazil (Although no-one bothered to tell the Brazilians) proved too much. The Paraguayan war proved too much for Argentina to handle, with the Paraguayan military machine steamrolling all the way to Buenos Aires before regrouping. The government could not hold, democratic coup was followed by a hard-line socialist coup after the democratic faction attempted to re-gain popularity in a disastrous offensive against the Paraguayans which ultimately cost them all of occupied Brazil. Argentina too collapsed into civil war, with the inland capitol of Cordoba and old capitol of Buenos Aires firmly in the hands of the socialists and the US-British backed Blancos being unable to unify the various regional powers. Yet Argentina was not to be another Brazil, and after the last Blanco was forced out of Argentine borders, they closed their borders and built. If the Paraguayans had managed it, the power of Argentina would be kindled through the red heat of revolution. By this time, Paraguay's military-industrial machine, although impressive, was completely isolated and exhausted, a climate where ECAL managed, by co-opting the hard-line militarists and old aristocrats (Before culling them off bit by bit) to come to power, convinced that had they pushed just a little harder-All of Argentina could have fallen, and after that....

And all this time, ECAL bode its' time-the Andean Empire gathered resources, being a stable ally of Britain and cautious neighbour to America (Causing the Pacific treaty to be written up between the three empires) but the Andeans saw that greatness was close at hand. As Britain and the US sent their armies into Europe and the Western Pacific, the Andeans launched their attack, their formidable fleet debarking masses of well-trained troops unto the Brazilian mainland, while a "Peaceful" ECAL coup and invited Andean forces sent into Gran Colombia occupy and in some cases disarm US forces based there. ECAL friendly forces raid the western coast of Central America and fight a series of battles against the US Pacific fleet there, largely taking it by surprise-but enough of the US fleet survives to keep the ECAL at bay. The middle of the century sees ECAL's rapid expansion claim almost the entire coast of Brazil, setting up a puppet government in Sao Paulo but failing to penetrate deep into the democratic heartland in the north. Despite a spirited defense, bolstered by South African, Local and British forces-Montevideo falls on Christmas day, signalling a dark day for Britain in that area-the city having been seen as a bastion of stability among the chaos. In the battle of Ascension Island the British Atlantic Carrier fleet manages to decisively defeat the Andean fleet, instantly placing their navy on the back-foot and turning the conflict back into a land war. Small motor-torpedo launches that had gained the Andeans that famous victory over the Argentines prevent any major British landing, but the proud Andean fleet is a shadow of its' former self, and then ECAL's newest and somewhat unexpected ally Paraguay decides to go for glory and invade Argentina, again. After all, the Argentines' attempts at modernization had been clunky to say the least, with famines and purges of "Rightist" officers it seems like Argentina will fold-yet this regiment had something the old guard lacked, and with the (copious losses) and blood of the common people they manage to turn the tide against the overstretched ECAL coalition. Their swarming tactics in no small way inspire the Brazilian socialists to do the same, the greatly outnumbered ECAL still gain ground but seeing the world uniting against them, can do little but hole up and hope something will change. As their calls for Pan-American unity are exposed as a veneer of hard-line anti-native racism, American intervention and Socialist invasion sweep away what embittered remnants remain. ECAL's pan-american policies will be taken up by new factions, yet its' ideology, for the most part, will be ground into dust. The USA might have boots on the ground by this point, but its' looking awful red in Southern America.
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