South African WI: United Party wins 1948 elections?

Very good ideas, but why does everyone keep refering to South Africa as the RSA in this scenario? The United Party after all presented the Anglo-African populus and were therefore Monarchist.
 
Agreed. Better to refer to this TL as something based on the Union of 1910 – so say the Union Government, the Union of South Africa or maybe the Dominion of South Africa etc. The former may be confusing re American or Indian use but I think the readership of this thread can cope

Overall thoughts – we’ve had similar threads on this in the past I think (or I at least remember Marius, myself and a few others making comments somewhere on this board in related threads), so also perhaps do a search if anyone is planning to begin working on a timeline. I think one common theme of those discussions was that there were a lot of different possible PODs where a very different outcome could have occurred.

My thoughts are briefly that the 1948 election result, if you could sway it (without a huge POD like S Rhodesia voting a different way) might give enough of a window for a big enough change. IIRC the results (by vote) were pretty close, with the UP getting the biggest share, but since SA at the time ran a FPP electoral system the fact that the NP won more seats gave them the victory. Looking at the Wiki there was only 5 seats difference, so even a mild electoral result change could swing it in favour of the UP

If the National Party doesn’t win the 48 election then perhaps then this could result in a decline or fragmentation of the party. South African political parties (like many others in the Dominions) went through a bit of change in the 1920s-30s – and that included the nationalist Afrikaner parties. Which would make it easier for the Union Party to keep sneaking through to victory given the electoral system.






Regarding PODS

  • Pre1910 change – A) Boost SA economy between 2nd Boer War and WW1 so the non Afrikaner immigrants don’t promptly migrate further or return home (there was some success in promoting SA as a destination for Anglo or loyal migrants post war but a lot of them left pretty quickly). B) Make some changes in the Boer/British political settlement, regarding the size of electorates – to cut it short the agreement was that Afrikaner rural electorates were not calculated on the standard white adult male franchise – they were based on “community” size. If the former was the basis of the franchise then the Afrikaner representation in the North at least would be a little less, resulting in a more British dominated Union Parliament for a decade or so, until women were enfranchised or some other change. This is a risky POD as perhaps without this agreement the settlement may not have occurred or more Boers might have been tempted to be disloyal during the Great War as they were not so in control
  • Post Great War change – maybe alter the Cape/female outcomes that reduced the non white Cape franchise but gave white females the vote without restrictions. No idea how you would do this but if you could butterfly the Cape franchise changes away then they would enter WW2 with a stronger position, which could bolster the UP’s position post War, assuming no wild butterflies.
  • No split in the United Party pre WW2. If Herzog didn’t leave then the Nationalist Party would lose a respectable elder statesman of the Afrikaner people and the UP would keep a stronger Afrikaner connection. Given the 1948 election results this could be enough to keep the National Party out. Again, how you would do this I do not know – maybe a car crash?
 
Car crashes= Lazarus of Doomed Incumbents

I used in Eastern Entrance and RFK Renewed. Once for romance, the other for Regime Change Prevention.
 
For every step the United Party took forward, it took another step back to cover its back. Smuts brought in a lot of property qualification laws and restrictions on property which were a form of backdoor apartheid. The United Party would have resisted majority rule and South Arfica would become like Ian Smith's Rhodesia.

Sharpeville would prbably not have happened but the United Party would be unlikely to grant majority rule although they moght have started to train an elite amongst Africans preparing them for rule at a future date.
 
Slow and steady

UP policy was based on An alternative to both aparthied and intergration.
White leadership with justice it was called.
a maintance in power in 48, would lead to the fagan commission being implemented a liberalization of the pass laws. Div Graaf wanted to allow mixed raced voters, coloureds they were called to be parliment members.
Africans were allowed to vote for white members on the national level, and african local officals, and A national advisery racial affairs council.
Social, seperation, encomonic intergration, and racial federation.
UP callled for seperate but truly equal schools.
This probably means an end to job reservation, and no 59 split forming the Progressive party. If the reserves are really developed, without the Bantustans idea, there would be a rise in voters throughout the 60's.
Direct African representation in 1965, and intergration by the mid 70's
 
Although the initial question was on the consequences another ntecedent might have a POD around the Rand Rebellion of 1922. Had Smuts taken a more concilliatory approach to the strikes it might not have got out of hand or had the mineowners not extended the use of black workers there may have been no strike.

The trade unions regarded the extension of jobs done by black workers as a form of dilution of labour and as a means of cutting pay and these fears were by no means unjustified. The outcome of the uprising was that the South African Labour Party joined forces with the National Party and came to power at the next election and legislation was introduced enshrining segtregation in the mines into law effectevily giving the unions what they wanted. Had the mineowners not attempted to extend the use of black workers, the National Party may not have come to power.

Or before 1922 a multiracial trade union movement had formed in South Africa and the South Africa Labour Party became a multiracial party maybe lead by Taffy Long. The current trade unions in South Africa bear no relation to those of 1922 and are largely multiracial and offer a means of addressing the continuation of apartheid in economic terms in raising living standards in a sustainable manner whereas coniscatory measures will destroy the wealth creation process. They also seem to have provided a more effective opposition to the government than the opposition parties.

However it is probably expecting to much for present day attitudes to be endorsed by South African trade unionists in the early 20th century. The Rand rebellion doesn't occur but there is still the problem of desegregation of the mines at a future date possibly chronic labour shortages would enable it to take place.

Another POD Gandhi remains in South Africa and campaigns to get the franchise extended maybe even becoming a United Party M.P





Regarding PODS

  • Pre1910 change – A) Boost SA economy between 2nd Boer War and WW1 so the non Afrikaner immigrants don’t promptly migrate further or return home (there was some success in promoting SA as a destination for Anglo or loyal migrants post war but a lot of them left pretty quickly). B) Make some changes in the Boer/British political settlement, regarding the size of electorates – to cut it short the agreement was that Afrikaner rural electorates were not calculated on the standard white adult male franchise – they were based on “community” size. If the former was the basis of the franchise then the Afrikaner representation in the North at least would be a little less, resulting in a more British dominated Union Parliament for a decade or so, until women were enfranchised or some other change. This is a risky POD as perhaps without this agreement the settlement may not have occurred or more Boers might have been tempted to be disloyal during the Great War as they were not so in control
  • Post Great War change – maybe alter the Cape/female outcomes that reduced the non white Cape franchise but gave white females the vote without restrictions. No idea how you would do this but if you could butterfly the Cape franchise changes away then they would enter WW2 with a stronger position, which could bolster the UP’s position post War, assuming no wild butterflies.
  • No split in the United Party pre WW2. If Herzog didn’t leave then the Nationalist Party would lose a respectable elder statesman of the Afrikaner people and the UP would keep a stronger Afrikaner connection. Given the 1948 election results this could be enough to keep the National Party out. Again, how you would do this I do not know – maybe a car crash?
[/QUOTE]
 
Top