South African Invasion of Rhodesia?

If that's true, then I'd have to change what I said about the UK's response: no matter what's distracting Callaghan at home and no matter how much Thatcher wants an African anti-communist mate, neither of them would be able to turn a blind eye to an invasion that threatened UK contractors. They'd be telling South Africa to cut that out and they better damn well not hurt one of Her Majesty's subjects when they pile in.

South Africa could very easily stage a "brutal terrorist attack" on Rhodies and UK contractors, and then claim that Rhodesia was negotiating with the kinds of terrorists responsible for the violence, and then "step-in" to "mediate"?

It could even make for an interesting turn later on in this TL! A couple years on, evidence emerges that the terrorist incident which sparked the SA intervention was staged, and the UK and US immediately withdraw their support.
 
South Africa could very easily stage a "brutal terrorist attack" on Rhodies and UK contractors, and then claim that Rhodesia was negotiating with the kinds of terrorists responsible for the violence, and then "step-in" to "mediate"?

That seems unlikely - what're the chances they could pull it off and be confident of pulling it off? An actual terrorist attack could work, if it's bad enough and happening at the worst possible time.

Though in either case, you'd expect Britain to have involvement too if their contractors are at risk and that's a pretty big change to the premise. Good or bad change, you decide!
 
This is true. Also, to be fair, one of the few moments Rhodesia received international sympathy was in 78, when the airliner was shot down, and its survivors executed in cold blood.

I think that a terrorist attack, coupled with a border incident, might spur SA into action. The POD would presumably be around the time of negotiations. What if both Smith, and Muzorewa were killed in a terrorist attack, and the government began to come-apart at the seams? With nobody clearly in charge, and the rebels making more gains (perhaps coming into the south of Rhodesia, and moving through the Rho/SA border, to avoid Rhodie positions), would South Africa move? What if South African civilians were killed in a cross-border raid, in retaliation for SA's perceived support of Rhodesia?
 
Also, if Smith died prior to negotiations, then P. K. van der Byl might (through some as-yet-undetermined butterflies) take power. van der Byl was a hardliner, and was of the opinion that Rhodesia should fight to the last man, rather than hand over power to either Britain, or majority rule. He was intensely ashamed of his South African accent, and always spoke with a constructed English Aristocratic snarl. A Hussar officer, and University graduate, he was popular among pro-Republic and pro-Smith politicians, though Smith himself often found van der Byl rather intense and argumentative.

Perhaps van der Byl could become the leader of the Rhodie resistance, during the Occupation?
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Also, if Smith died prior to negotiations, then P. K. van der Byl might (through some as-yet-undetermined butterflies) take power. van der Byl was a hardliner, and was of the opinion that Rhodesia should fight to the last man, rather than hand over power to either Britain, or majority rule. He was intensely ashamed of his South African accent, and always spoke with a constructed English Aristocratic snarl. A Hussar officer, and University graduate, he was popular among pro-Republic and pro-Smith politicians, though Smith himself often found van der Byl rather intense and argumentative.

Perhaps van der Byl could become the leader of the Rhodie resistance, during the Occupation?

van der Byl would be an interesting figure to explore; perhaps after the invasion, Smith meditates a truce with the Rebels to help form a temporal alliance to fight the South African's (akin to the semi-truce in China during the Second Sino-Japanese War), with van der Byl walking out and forming a hardliner faction.
 
van der Byl would be an interesting figure to explore; perhaps after the invasion, Smith meditates a truce with the Rebels to help form a temporal alliance to fight the South African's (akin to the semi-truce in China during the Second Sino-Japanese War), with van der Byl walking out and forming a hardliner faction.

Yeah. Though I'm not sure I can see van der Byl living out in the Bush with the troops. Perhaps he retreats to a ranch compound in the North of the country, and draws the remaining loyalist army units to himself? That would effectively spell the end of the rapid-deployment units put-aside to help farmers on isolated ranches. I think that might create a lot of resentment towards van der Byl, if the rebel activity continues. Perhaps that's why the white farmers/landowners turn their loyalty to South Africa - IIRC, SA had its own Ranch Security System set up, where militias, police, and soldiers built a support network to protect outlying settlements.
 
That seems like a workable POD: Smith dies (either terrorism or a mundane cause), Byl takes charge of a disintegrating government, and South Africa comes in to prop up Rhodesia whether Byl likes it or not, likely with Britain joining in if it wanted to or not*. Things Go Wrong.


* If under Callaghan, Labour might get a "rally round the flag" bump in the 1979 election that soon goes against him
 
I've started working on a mini-TL/story based on this premise. Would you be adverse to seeing it posted here?

I think that the premise that I'm going with, here, is a POD in '78. A slightly worse attack on the Salisbury Oil Depot, and Smith deciding to seek some kind of ceasefire, ahead of talks with the rebels. From there on in, the things we've discussed and worse, may await us!
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
I've started working on a mini-TL/story based on this premise. Would you be adverse to seeing it posted here?

I think that the premise that I'm going with, here, is a POD in '78. A slightly worse attack on the Salisbury Oil Depot, and Smith deciding to seek some kind of ceasefire, ahead of talks with the rebels. From there on in, the things we've discussed and worse, may await us!

I think you should post it separately so it doesn't get caught up with the discussion. I look forward to it :)
 
I've started working on a mini-TL/story based on this premise. Would you be adverse to seeing it posted here?

I think that the premise that I'm going with, here, is a POD in '78. A slightly worse attack on the Salisbury Oil Depot, and Smith deciding to seek some kind of ceasefire, ahead of talks with the rebels. From there on in, the things we've discussed and worse, may await us!

You're also going to have to make some changes in South Africa too.

Vorster was a piece of work but I don't think he would have supported an invasion of Rhodesia, nor his successor Botha.

Perhaps a POD could be no assassination of Verwoerd. I don't think he would have been in favour of an invasion of Rhodesia either, but the butterflies created by him surviving may result in a more hardline regime emerging in South Africa.

As some have said, lots of Rhodesians had strong links to South Africa, and by the same token lots of South Africans had strong links to Rhodesia (for example, my mother's uncle lived in Bulawayo for many years before moving back to South Africa after majority rule). Invading Rhodesia will almost have a brother-vs-brother element. And although Afrikaners are a majority among whites in South Africa, English-speakers make up a significant number too (perhaps 40% of the white population speak English as their first language). So, assuming Afrikaners are happy to go along with this (which is not a given) you may see some resistance among English-speakers, both in the army and within broader society.
 
I don't think a traditional invasion scenario would work, with this late a POD. How about going for a different flavour - a coup/invasion. So members of the Rhodesian government/army over throw the government and call for South African support, which is suspiciously prompt. Likely it would be easy to arrange to have South African forces already in Rhodesia as IOTL.

As Marius said, the links were pretty close too. Many of the Rhodesians I've encountered (either directly or indirectly) seemed to have close connections to SA, often working or studying there at various points. The of course there are the many Afrikaner Rhodesians who moved up before the Bush War.
 
What could work is something along the lines of Arthur Keppel-Jones's When Smuts Goes.

It was written just after World War II and predicts a National Party win in 1953, rather than 1948. Keppel-Jones predicted even worse racial oppression and authoritarianism than happened in OTL.

But I think this is not a bad POD. Have the Nats of this TL be even more influenced by the Nazis, which leads to even worse apartheid, and oppression of everyone who is not an Afrikaner, not just non-whites. This would probably see an increase in the population of the Rhodesias as English-speakers leave South Africa. This could lead to something of a Cold War between South Africa and Rhodesia.

That said, this will have massive butterflies in Southern Africa and the British's policies towards Southern Africa. Ian Smith would probably still emerge in this TL, but not necessarily as PM or the man who takes Rhodesia to UDI (which may also not happen in this TL).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Smuts_Goes
 
Awesome feedback! Thanks guys.

I had a couple questions. I note that in some interviews with Ian Smith, and other Rhodesians, there is mention of heavy weapons, and even mobile armour, being employed by the rebels in Angola and Mozambique, during their wars for independence. Can anyone enlighten me as to what kinds of equipment we're talking here? Presumably sourced from Soviets? No spoilers, but I have some pretty interesting ideas about where the butterflies will take the war in Rhodesia... ;)

Also (and this may be a stupid question) but why wasn't there more of a response by the governments of Rhodesia's neighbours, when Rhodesia would launch cross-border raids? Rhodesia's military capacity vs. their own?

@Marius - I wish I'd seen your post about Verwoerd before I started writing this! Still - I had actually considered the possibility of a far worse government in power in SA, and we may yet see it happen! The Nationalists, and their connections with Project Coast, will absolutely come into play...

@Vogel - I'm possibly thinking of a combination of the two - with South Africa asserting political dominance over Rhodesia, but with many Rhodies objecting to (and even resisting) what they regard as an 'occupation'. A lot of Rhodesians had connections with South Africa, it's true, but there were a great many who considered themselves to have their own national identity. There was also growing resentment in the late 70s, regarding South Africa withdrawing economic support. Whilst the Smithites have any political clout, South Africa will not have an easy time of it, asserting control of any kind over Rhodesia.
 
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