South African Defence Force without sanctions?

[flasheart]

I think not because (with the exception of Canada) nobody was buying British submarines at the time. E.g. the Australians replaced their Oberons with a Swedish design and the South Africans eventually replaced their Daphnes with German Type 209s. I suspect that the only reason why Canada bought the Upholder class was that they were "going cheap" due to becoming surplus to British requirements.

IOTL a couple of nations such as Pakistan did show an interest in the Upholders once the RN decided to dispense with them. The boats were still very young, very modern and going cheap and at the time were laid up awaiting a buyer. Part of the cause of the issues that the class experienced OTL was due to them having spent too long laid up deteriorating while Canada tried to make up its mind about acquiring them.

If the SAN was already operating British built Oberon's they would have likely looked at possibly replacing them with Upholders.
When the possibility of acquiring brand new surplus Upholders arises with the added bonus of the boats being cheaper and available immediately compared to new builds I'd imagine that a South African Navy already operating British boats would have given some serious thought to making an offer and even perhaps ending up in a bidding war with Canada.

 

[Hammerbolt]

The Upholders are very big boats, between 500 and almost 1000 tons heavier than other contemporary export boats like the Type 209 or the Scorpene, and require about twice the crew. Wouldn't these be drawbacks for the realtively small SA navy?

 

[Gunnarnz]

The Upholders are very big boats, between 500 and almost 1000 tons heavier than other contemporary export boats like the Type 209 or the Scorpene, and require about twice the crew. Wouldn't these be drawbacks for the realtively small SA navy?

Size? Not so much. Crew requirements? Absolutely - the SADF always struggled with personnel requirements, and subs have some of the most stringent requirements around. A significant crew increase would be a major concern.

 

[Hammerbolt]

Size? Not so much. Crew requirements? Absolutely - the SADF always struggled with personnel requirements, and subs have some of the most stringent requirements around. A significant crew increase would be a major concern.

Figured. Portuguese navy has the same problem; our 2 Type 209PN put together need less crew than a single Upholder...

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

IIRC the South Africans did indeed want 100 Mirage F1's...

The South Africans purchased 34 Canadair Sabres and 58 Mirage IIIs. 34 + 58 = 102. Is that where the requirement for 100 Mirage F-1s came from?

...and also wanted to start domestic production themselves under license but were prevented from doing this and were limited in the number of aircraft they could obtain from France by the imposition of the arms embargo.

These are the first two sentences about the SAAF in my copy of Norman Polmar's "World Combat Aircraft Directory" which was published in 1975.

The large South African Air Force is becoming increasingly independent of European sources for combat aircraft. The indigenous Atlas Aircraft Corporation will deliver Mirage F-1 fighter aircraft from 1977 onward. Initial planning provided for 16 Mirage F-1CZ interceptors and 32 F-1AZ fighter-bombers.

The section on the Mirage F-1 says that 48 were on order for South Africa (along with 105 for France and 15 for Spain) but doesn't say that they were to be built in South Africa.

The Ian Allan Modern Combat Aircraft book on the Mirage (which was published in the mid-1980s) says that South Africa acquired a manufacturing licence for the Mirage F-1 and its Atar 9K-50 engine.

The 48 Mirage F-1s (16 CZ and 32 AZ) that the SAAF did receive were delivered from 1975 and were built in France. Perhaps Polmar meant that 16 F-1CZ and 32 F-1AZ built in France would be acquired initially and then be followed by South African built F-1s that would be delivered from 1977.

If they had been successfully able to set up domestic production of an advanced aircraft like the Mirage F1 this would have probably been a major boost to their aerospace industry.
Might this have meant that the Atlas Cheetah still happens in one form or another or maybe the Atlas Carver becomes a reality?

I think the Atlas Cheetah wouldn't have happened because they would have built Mirage F-1s instead and as written above I suspect that the 100 Mirage F-1s that were wanted were for a one-to-one replacement of the existing fleet of Mirage IIIs and Sabres. I've no idea whether the Atlas Carver would have become a reality.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Figured. Portuguese navy has the same problem; our 2 Type 209PN put together need less crew than a single Upholder...

The Portuguese Navy also had 4 Daphne class submarines. Have you any idea whether they wanted to buy Oberons but the British were unwilling to sell them?

 

[Riain]

Given South Africa was fighting for much of the Cold War i think they'll want to do as much in-house as they can, much like Israel.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

IOTL a couple of nations such as Pakistan did show an interest in the Upholders once the RN decided to dispense with them. The boats were still very young, very modern and going cheap and at the time were laid up awaiting a buyer. Part of the cause of the issues that the class experienced OTL was due to them having spent too long laid up deteriorating while Canada tried to make up its mind about acquiring them.

If the SAN was already operating British built Oberon's they would have likely looked at possibly replacing them with Upholders. When the possibility of acquiring brand new surplus Upholders arises with the added bonus of the boats being cheaper and available immediately compared to new builds I'd imagine that a South African Navy already operating British boats would have given some serious thought to making an offer and even perhaps ending up in a bidding war with Canada.

It's possible but IMHO unlikely.

I suggested that the SAN would buy Oberons instead of Daphnes and Agostas because the SAN had traditionally bought British and because at the time most countries that didn't build their own submarines bought British.

I suggested that they'd buy Type 209s instead of second-hand Upholders to replace them is because at that time most countries that didn't build their own submarines were buying German. The Australian Collins class and the Canadian purchase of the Upholder class being amongst the exceptions.

IMO the only way for this to work is if more Upholder class had been ordered for the RN before the end of the Cold War and all of them became surplus to requirements under the Options for Change and Front Line First defence reviews. I thought that long-lead items for 4 Upholders had been ordered before the end of the Cold War but my copy of Jane's 1986-87 doesn't mention it. If that's not a case of false memory syndrome it's possible that they could have been used to build 4 Upholders for export relatively quickly and relatively cheaply after the RN decided that they didn't want them.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Figured. Portuguese navy has the same problem; our 2 Type 209PN put together need less crew than a single Upholder...

The Portuguese Navy also had 4 Daphne class submarines. Have you any idea whether they wanted to buy Oberons but the British were unwilling to sell them?

Portugal also had a tradition for buying British warships. ITTL HMG is less hostile to Apartheid South Africa for "reasons" therefore there's a good chance that it would have been less hostile to the Estado Novo for "reasons" as well. Would Portugal have bought British Oberon class submarines in preference to the French Daphnes and British Rothesay & Leander class frigates in preference to the French, German and Spanish built frigates that were acquired in the 1960s & 1970s?

 

[Hammerbolt]

The Portuguese Navy also had 4 Daphne class submarines. Have you any idea whether they wanted to buy Oberons but the British were unwilling to sell them?

Afaik we went straight for the Daphne. Can't find any mentions otherwise.

 

[Hammerbolt]

Portugal also had a tradition for buying British warships. ITTL HMG is less hostile to Apartheid South Africa for "reasons" therefore there's a good chance that it would have been less hostile to the Estado Novo for "reasons" as well. Would Portugal have bought British Oberon class submarines in preference to the French Daphnes and British Rothesay & Leander class frigates in preference to the French, German and Spanish built frigates that were acquired in the 1960s & 1970s?

The Oberons are considerably larger and more expensive, and the Rothesay & Leanders are too mission-specific, for their time. We needed multipurpose frigates & corvetes, that would not just conduct war patrols of various kinds without the benefit of home-fleet support, and "show the flag with big guns" around the colonies. Latter on, the german MEKOs were perfect to replace them. And I think the germans hit the jackpot with the MEKO system, when it comes to making & selling multipurpose ships; look at how many they sold!

 

[flasheart]

If SADF free of sanctions decides to procure lots of high end equipment as has been suggested this would likely require a lot more high end personnel to operate and maintain it (especially in the case of the SAN).
What were terms of service and standards of technical training like in SADF and what was the proportion of professional career personnel compared to national servicemen like?
Would existing manpower have been enough to sustain a force with much more high end equipment or would a greater deal of professionalism and proportion of volunteers have been required and would this have been feasible given South Africa's demographics and SADF's recruitment standards at the time?

 

[flasheart]

How about the Jaguar, to supplement the Buccaneers? It's a pretty good aircraft and cheap to operate; France and the UK used it happily for decades. Buccaneers for long range strike, Jaguars for air support, Mirage 2000 or F-16A for air defence.

If the SAAF already has the Mirage III, Mirage F1 and Buccaneer in service I'm not sure they would be willing or able to commit to the additional expense of bringing a 4th fast jet type into service. If they decided to retire the Bucc earlier then its possible they may decide to procure Jaguar's but I'm not sure if the Jag has the deep strike capability offered by the Buccaneer or if the SAAF would be willing to dispense with strike capability in exchange for CAS.
Plus if South Africa still develops nuclear weapons then their is an added incentive to keep the Buccaneer around as its already a nuclear capable strike aircraft.

I've aways thought that the Rhodesians would be a more likely operator for the Jaguar given their need was for CAS and strike aircraft as opposed to air defence. If Apartheid South Africa isn't hit with sanctions or arms embargo's then it's not too much of a stretch to imagine that Rhodesia would also have been unaffected. The Rhodesian Air Force operated a mix of ancient Canberra's and Hunters that were in dire need of replacement but without access to the international arms market the RhAF (With considerable help from the SAAF) was forced to find ever more innovative ways to keep their elderly aircraft flying and combat effective. Without sanctions I could easily see the RhAF procuring British Aerospace Hawk's (Which was the first aircraft type procured by the Zimbabwe Air Force) as its a cheap aircraft to procure and operate, meets their needs and is a massive step up in capability from the Hawker Hunter. If they then decide that they still need more something more advanced and capable and still see the RhAF's mission as providing CAS to the army and strike capability with a limited need for air defence (Possibly able to be fulfilled by the Hawk) then the Jaguar is the next logical step.
Of course both potentially procuring the Hawk and Jaguar depend on Britain no longer being upset by the UDI to the point where they are wiling to recognise Rhodesia and supply them with arms.

What would be interesting would be a SAAF unaffected by sanctions being willing to pass on aircraft to the RhAF (Such as Canberra's, Mirage's and helicopters) either surplus or new built purchased on the RhAF's behalf along with training and technical support.

 

[Hammerbolt]

I was thinking of a lineup of Jaguar, Bucanneer and something for air-air; either the F1 with upgrades or, depending on era and budget, Mirage 2000.

 

[flasheart]

The Jaguar wouldn't have been available until the mid 70's at the earliest so I suppose its possible the SAAF decides to dispense with either the Mirage 3 or Buccaneer at this point as they would no longer be cutting edge and would have quite a few hours on their airframes and replace them with Jags.
However the SAAF would likely have been faced with the potential loss of nuclear/conventional strike capability from losing the Buccaneer or loss of air to air capability from losing the Mirage 3.
Could the Jaguar replace any of these capabilities?

 

[Pelranius]

Fair enough.

It would have been interesting to see how SADF MPAs and sub chasers do some action.

Here in the Philippines, our armed forces used to have PCEs to patrol areas that were frequented by either Soviet or Chinese subs that were supplying arms to the Huks and then later the NPA. One PCE was alleged to have sunk a Chinese sub in 1956 but the wreck has never been found. Another account claimed a PCE damaging an unknown sub.

If the Filipinos sunk a sub in 1956, it almost certainly wasn't Chinese. The first PLAN subs were some ex Soviet S and M class submarines acquired in 1954, two years is far too short for the PLAN to take their first subs for anything more than some coastal cruises.

 

[CV12Hornet]

The Jaguar wouldn't have been available until the mid 70's at the earliest so I suppose its possible the SAAF decides to dispense with either the Mirage 3 or Buccaneer at this point as they would no longer be cutting edge and would have quite a few hours on their airframes and replace them with Jags.
However the SAAF would likely have been faced with the potential loss of nuclear/conventional strike capability from losing the Buccaneer or loss of air to air capability from losing the Mirage 3.
Could the Jaguar replace any of these capabilities?

I wouldn't try to replace Mirages with Jaguars, but with Mirage F1s the loss of air to air capability wouldn't be serious. On the flip side, the Jag has good range and a superior avionics suite compared to the Buccaneer, on top of excellent rough-field capability and nuclear qualification on the French version. It can't carry as much ordnance as the Bucc, but as a striker that's pretty much the only weakness absent a major upgrade package for the Bucc.

 

[vetinari]

I'm not surprised, Australia was looking at Vulcans in the late 50s.

And Victors and before them, Valiants. Scherger was interested in continuing the Lincoln's legacy. We eventually ended up with the F-111s.

 

[vetinari]

The Soviets occasionally sent submarines and the odd surface ship around the Cape of Good Hope as a flying the flag/show of force exercise.
Plus the Soviets were backing most of South Africa's enemies and the Cubans were moving most of their force's to Angola by ship which would probably be enough to justify the procurement of a credible MPA capability

Cuba is invariably portrayed in the West as a "lackey" of the Soviet Union. However that dates from the Reagan era. Cuba had a history of supporting third world insurgencies/Governments that predates that by a decade or more. Their initial effort in Angola was off their own bat and went against Soviet desires in the region. They sent their forces their on some leaky old merchant ships. After it's success, the Soviets said, "what a good idea," it had been and made use of the Cubans in Africa. Their early efforts have passed into Cuban folklore and feature in several popular folk songs of the period.

 

[Gillan1220]

If the Filipinos sunk a sub in 1956, it almost certainly wasn't Chinese. The first PLAN subs were some ex Soviet S and M class submarines acquired in 1954, two years is far too short for the PLAN to take their first subs for anything more than some coastal cruises.

When did the Chinese have at least green-water capable subs?

The wreck was never found. I don't know too if the Soviets had ocean-going subs that could supply the Huks or the NPA at this period. It was suicide because the waters around the Philippines and Southeast Asia were controlled by the USN and the RN.