South African Defence Force without sanctions?

[Gannt the chartist]

With a 1977 start and 418 everything prior to that is fixed so what we are really talking about is a response to the Cubans and MPLA upping the ante in the ongoing Bush war. SA will want to have as much indigenous production as possible but at the moment are under the gun.

The problem is comparatively large mechanized forces, with better artillery and aviation support in a very large area with a premium on transport that apart from what it can do in its own right can protect guerilla forces.

No embargo the ex Euro/NATO Centurions are just coming out of service and now available as complete tanks not just hulls. SA will want to convert them and want to move on to a better tank, one designed for SA operations not North West Europe but there are none, Leopard 1 maybe but those lines are busy replacing the Centurions. You know it, can upgrade it the opponent is the T34 or T55 and its immediately available so Centurion/Olifant 1.

Need anti armour and Anti Air weapons, MILAN and Stinger. Cheap mobile easy to use. If you need to push airbases or operating bases forward you may need something heavier so more Crotale/Cactus but that would probably be first covered by aircraft.

Any 155 or modern 105 as this is just before the G series you have Valkiri anyway,

Transport its really more of what you have more Puma, Frelon, more Alouette, more Medium lift ( Herc, Transall) Gazelle.

Mirage F1 and the Cheetah conversions probably easier. Jag is a maybe it is nuclear capable btw and has double the range of the F1 but in this scenario the US inventory is available so Phantom (which is shorter legged than Jag in basic config) and if you have access to US weapons and the airframe is available probably the best bet as an area defence fighter and bomber with probably an influx of A37, This is actually one area where the A10 would be useful if it ever got into range and as the Warthog is native to Southern Africa why not give them the Vlakvark.

Moving forward there is probably no external input after the Bush war wanted or needed so Rooikat etc, Cheetah and so on yes, the laser guided ATGM yes. MBT they probably don't want ( as OTL) wheeled vehicles seen as a better fit in the environment.

Shackletons are good enough for the sort of MP SA needs after which converted airliner types, they don't really need anti sub aircraft for oceanic distances its surface search and better things to spend on. The 209 subs good enough, MEKO probably otherwise is coastguard/Aviso types.

 

[Pelranius]

When did the Chinese have at least green-water capable subs?

The wreck was never found. I don't know too if the Soviets had ocean-going subs that could supply the Huks or the NPA at this period. It was suicide because the waters around the Philippines and Southeast Asia were controlled by the USN and the RN.

Probably around 1960, if I had to guess.

Sure, the Soviets could train PLAN submariners before 1954, but you'd still need several years after the 1954 sub delivery to bring the subs into intial operating capbility (and not just the sub crews, but also the maintainance people), especially since the PLAN as a whole was essentially starting as a blank slate.

 

[Cryptic]

Whether it was residual feelings over the Boer War, or a desire to establish closer ties to a super power that had a will to make large scale interventions intervene against Communist encroachment in Korea and Vietnam, the un sanctioned South Africans look to Uncle Sam for their air force needs with a low / high approach::

- At least 12, probably as many as 16 F-4 Phantoms. Yes, they are hugely expensive to operate, but the SAs are looking for some friendship discounts. Likewise, they are approaching Israel about joint training regarding F-4s. Yes, of course SA has the airspace for it. Discounts or joint training aside, the F-4 Phantom's multi role abilities and long range make it ideal for SAs large land territory and areas of sea coverage.

- The low.... 36 lower tech and maintenance easy F-5 Freedom Fighters. These fighters hold the line until supplemented by the heavier hitting Phantoms.

The SAs would love some Orions as well, but the price is way too high for the numbers that would be needed to truly make affective anti submarine patrols. Rather, the SA's just need to assert their EEZ over the Cape of Good Hope. Moving north to Canada, SA goes shopping for 4 DHC- Caribous to modify into sea patrol planes with an additional 8 filling the light / medium transport role.

 

[Gillan1220]

Probably around 1960, if I had to guess.

Sure, the Soviets could train PLAN submariners before 1954, but you'd still need several years after the 1954 sub delivery to bring the subs into intial operating capbility (and not just the sub crews, but also the maintainance people), especially since the PLAN as a whole was essentially starting as a blank slate.

The PLAN received leftover KMT ships that failed to escape to Taiwan, as well as Soviet leftovers. Little to none were ocean-going so that's why the Red Chinese could not invade Taiwan. The communists too were terrified of the KMT reinvading the southern coast.

In the South African scenario, it was stated that the Soviets did operate subs in the Indian Ocean and Cape of Good Hope area because they were supplying arms to independence movements across the continent.

Whether it was residual feelings over the Boer War, or a desire to establish closer ties to a super power that had a will to make large scale interventions intervene against Communist encroachment in Korea and Vietnam, the un sanctioned South Africans look to Uncle Sam for their air force needs with a low / high approach::

- At least 12, probably as many as 16 F-4 Phantoms. Yes, they are hugely expensive to operate, but the SAs are looking for some friendship discounts. Likewise, they are approaching Israel about joint training regarding F-4s. Yes, of course SA has the airspace for it. Discounts or joint training aside, the F-4 Phantom's multi role abilities and long range make it ideal for SAs large land territory and areas of sea coverage.

- The low.... 36 lower tech and maintenance easy F-5 Freedom Fighters. These fighters hold the line until supplemented by the heavier hitting Phantoms.

The SAs would love some Orions as well, but the price is way too high for the numbers that would be needed to truly make affective anti submarine patrols. Rather, the SA's just need to assert their EEZ over the Cape of Good Hope. Moving north to Canada, SA goes shopping for 4 DHC- Caribous to modify into sea patrol planes with an additional 8 filling the light / medium transport role.

This reminds me to that the Philippine Air Force was also looking for F-4s at this period. However, F-4s are expensive so our country opted for the cheaper F-5 instead. Most Southeast Asian countries in the Cold War did operate the F-5 such as Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and South Vietnam. After the Fall of Saigon, the Philippines was looking to purchase spare left-over Hueys and F-5s from the Vietnamese, something the U.S. would not have been happy about.

Some pics of Exercise Cope Thunder during the 1980s, held in Clark Air Base:

https://www.facebook.com/PinoyAviators13/posts/3367308623303353

Royal Thai Air Force F-5E Tiger II aircraft undergo pre-flight maintenance on the flight line during the joint Exercise COPE THUNDER '84 - NARA & DVIDS Public Domain Archive Public Domain Search

Download Image of Royal Thai Air Force F-5E Tiger II aircraft undergo pre-flight maintenance on the flight line during the joint Exercise COPE THUNDER '84. Free for commercial use, no attribution required. The original finding aid described this photograph as: Subject Operation/Series: COPE...

nara.getarchive.net

Thailand Operations/Exercises

The Orions would come in handy to patrol the Cape of Good Hope. The P-2 Neptune would be a cheaper candidate as well. What if the Canadians also sell the CP-141 Aurora for MPA?

 

[flasheart]

Cuba is invariably portrayed in the West as a "lackey" of the Soviet Union. However that dates from the Reagan era. Cuba had a history of supporting third world insurgencies/Governments that predates that by a decade or more. Their initial effort in Angola was off their own bat and went against Soviet desires in the region. They sent their forces their on some leaky old merchant ships. After it's success, the Soviets said, "what a good idea," it had been and made use of the Cubans in Africa. Their early efforts have passed into Cuban folklore and feature in several popular folk songs of the period.

Might a much more militarily capable South Africa equipped with modern equipment such as much more capable MPA's such as Nimrod/Orion, maritime strike aircraft such as Buccaneer's with Sea Eagle AShM's or Mirage F1's with Exocets, Oberon class SSK's (Which had a much greater endurance than the Daphne class), along with modern SSM equiped surface combatants decide to try and prevent Cuba moving forces into Angola by sinking the merchant ships used to transport Cuban forces or striking at the airfields and aircraft in Angola used by Cuba and try to in effect blockade Angola?

 

[Gunnarnz]

Might a much more militarily capable South Africa equipped with modern equipment such as much more capable MPA's such as Nimrod/Orion, maritime strike aircraft such as Buccaneer's with Sea Eagle AShM's or Mirage F1's with Exocets, Oberon class SSK's (Which had a much greater endurance than the Daphne class), along with modern SSM equiped surface combatants decide to try and prevent Cuba moving forces into Angola by sinking the merchant ships used to transport Cuban forces or striking at the airfields and aircraft in Angola used by Cuba and try to in effect blockade Angola?

I doubt it. Sinking civilian ships on the high seas is the sort of thing that it's hard to make look good. They could sink them, and would probably want to sink them, but the international optics of it are so bad that it could trigger sanctions all by itself. I can't see any reasonably sane government doing it.

 

[vetinari]

I doubt it. Sinking civilian ships on the high seas is the sort of thing that it's hard to make look good. They could sink them, and would probably want to sink them, but the international optics of it are so bad that it could trigger sanctions all by itself. I can't see any reasonably sane government doing it.

We are discussing the South African Government here, not one of the sanest organisations the world has experienced. They consciously spread HIV/AIDS amongst the black population at one point in OTL and developed atomic weapons...

 

[Gunnarnz]

We are discussing the South African Government here, not one of the sanest organisations the world has experienced. They consciously spread HIV/AIDS amongst the black population at one point in OTL and developed atomic weapons...

Developing atomic weapons is a pretty sane thing for them to do, especially once they become something of an international pariah. I think there's an argument to be made that they didn't serve much military purpose, but they did provide a useful negotiating tool.

 

[vetinari]

Developing atomic weapons is a pretty sane thing for them to do, especially once they become something of an international pariah. I think there's an argument to be made that they didn't serve much military purpose, but they did provide a useful negotiating tool.

Their value as a negotiating tool is as questionable as their military value. What nation threatened South Africa with nuclear weapons? None. The fUSSR wasn't interested in using nukes in South Africa, its primary targets were Europe and the USA. The USA wasn't interested. They were only to be used on neighbouring countries or internal enemies. Only the White South African government would have contemplated the last targets. They didn't value Black lives.

 

[Gillan1220]

Their value as a negotiating tool is as questionable as their military value. What nation threatened South Africa with nuclear weapons? None. The fUSSR wasn't interested in using nukes in South Africa, its primary targets were Europe and the USA. The USA wasn't interested. They were only to be used on neighbouring countries or internal enemies. Only the White South African government would have contemplated the last targets. They didn't value Black lives.

South Africa would have been a secondary or tertiary target of the USSR if a nuclear war happened. The county could be used by surviving U.S. and RN naval vessels to resupply, thus enabling the West to retaliate. In a nuclear war, one strategy is also to eliminate the enemy's ability to retaliate.

 

[vetinari]

South Africa would have been a secondary or tertiary target of the USSR if a nuclear war happened. The county could be used by surviving U.S. and RN naval vessels to resupply, thus enabling the West to retaliate. In a nuclear war, one strategy is also to eliminate the enemy's ability to retaliate.

The fUSSR would concentrate primarily on Europe and the US. According to Dr. Des Ball who I did a seminar with during my Masters course on Nuclear War Fighting Strategy back in the 1980s, the fUSSR was concerned with defeating the US and Europe. Their missiles were unreliable and South Africa was too far south, just as Australia was, for them to waste them down there. South Africa might have deluded themselves otherwise but the reality was they were simply too insignificant for the Soviets to bother with. The truth was, the South Africans were building their nuclear weapons to intimidate their surrounding neighbours and their internal enemies because they were scared they were going to be over-run.

 

[Gillan1220]

The fUSSR would concentrate primarily on Europe and the US. According to Dr. Des Ball who I did a seminar with during my Masters course on Nuclear War Fighting Strategy back in the 1980s, the fUSSR was concerned with defeating the US and Europe. Their missiles were unreliable and South Africa was too far south, just as Australia was, for them to waste them down there. South Africa might have deluded themselves otherwise but the reality was they were simply too insignificant for the Soviets to bother with. The truth was, the South Africans were building their nuclear weapons to intimidate their surrounding neighbours and their intern enemies because they were scared they were going to be over-run.

Yes, I agree that most Soviet nukes will be targeted towards Europe and North America. More would be targeted too with China, their geopolitical rival in Eurasia. Other places that would be nuked would be Japan, South Korea, and U.S. bases in the Philippines. Depending if the Soviets have a sub in the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean, even tiny Singapore would be targeted.

Neutral Lebanon would also be targeted because there were American, Italian, and French forces there. Jordan, Israel, North Yemen, South Yemen, and even Saudi Arabia will get some strikes from the Soviets. Meanwhile, the Soviet ally of Syria and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan would be targeted by USN SSBNs operating in the Indian Ocean.

If any attack occurs on the Southern Hemisphere, especially in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand, it would come from Soviet boomers that are in the range of the area.

 

[vetinari]

Yes, I agree that most Soviet nukes will be targeted towards Europe and North America. More would be targeted too with China, their geopolitical rival in Eurasia. Other places that would be nuked would be Japan, South Korea, and U.S. bases in the Philippines. Depending if the Soviets have a sub in the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean, even tiny Singapore would be targeted.

Neutral Lebanon would also be targeted because there were American, Italian, and French forces there. Jordan, Israel, North Yemen, South Yemen, and even Saudi Arabia will get some strikes from the Soviets. Meanwhile, the Soviet ally of Syria and the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan would be targeted by USN SSBNs operating in the Indian Ocean.

If any attack occurs on the Southern Hemisphere, especially in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand, it would come from Soviet boomers that are in the range of the area.

There were no Soviet Bombers in range of Australia or New Zealand. They could not be sure if their missiles would operate as designed, they were unreliable. The southern hemisphere is basically safe from Soviet attack.

 

[Gillan1220]

There were no Soviet Bombers in range of Australia or New Zealand. They could not be sure if their missiles would operate as designed, they were unreliable. The southern hemisphere is basically safe from Soviet attacks

Sorry, I should have said subs instead of boomers (aka nuclear ballistic submarines or SSBNs). You misread boomers as bombers.

SSBNs could technically sneak not even close to an enemy country's EEZ and unleash their payload far from the coastal defenses. Although I wonder how well Soviet submarines could do that, considering they were too damn noisy that ASW units could easily detect them.

 

[vetinari]

Sorry, I should have said subs instead of boomers (aka nuclear ballistic submarines or SSBNs). You misread boomers as bombers.

Very few Boomers were active in the south Pacific in the Cold War. Most were in their "sanctuaries" in the Arctic and I suspect most of their missiles were aimed at the US or Europe.

 

[Cryptic]

The Orions would come in handy to patrol the Cape of Good Hope. The P-2 Neptune would be a cheaper candidate as well. What if the Canadians also sell the CP-141 Aurora for MPA?

I am thinking that the South Africans would look really closely at:

- Do we really face either a submarine threat and / or a documented history of submarine trespassers (Canada and Sweden). Or, are we going to spend many hours flying expensive aircraft to find nothing?

If the answer to the above question is: "Probably going to find nothing", I think the South Africans would go for "sovereignty patrol" type air craft. Historically, the SADF seems to be very pragmatic about equipment and avoids "prestige" and "Well, you never know" type purchases.

Neptunes and CP-141s would make good sovereignty patrol aircraft. But.... the Neptune is not really multi role (something else the SADF seems to like). CP-141s would probably be expensive as they seem to be a Canadian variant of the Orion. Likewise, they maybe too specialized if threatening or trespassing submarines are just not out there.

Meanwhile, the modified HC Caribous as sovereignty / presence patrollers could also be assigned to assist other Caribous in a transport role if really needed (multi role). Thus, the SADF saves by not having to have a transport aircraft and a maritime patrol aircraft.

Meanwhile..... if threats or trespassers appear evident, they can upgrade to the CP-141. But.... it might be best to start with Caribous.

 

[Hammerbolt]

Why not the french Atlantic? The 2 version even carries Exocet missiles. Afaik the CP-140 didn't carry ASM, or the P-2. So, it's a smaller and cheaper to operate aicraft, with multiple payloads built in.

 

[flasheart]

If a full scale nuclear war were to break out between NATO and the Warsaw Pact sometime in the 1980's how likely is it that South Africa would decide to unleash its nukes?

While strikes against the USSR or Eastern Europe are obviously out of the question might Pretoria have decided that Cuban forces in Angola needed some "instant sunshine" or perhaps the capital cities or military bases of some of South Africa's more Marxist leaning and less friendly neighbours?
Might they have even decided to go after any Warsaw pact naval assets at sea in their vicinity (either conventionally or with nuclear weapons)?

 

[Hammerbolt]

If a full scale nuclear war were to break out between NATO and the Warsaw Pact sometime in the 1980's how likely is it that South Africa would decide to unleash its nukes?

If that happens the whole world goes down the drain anyway, so that's irrelevant...

 

[Gunnarnz]

Their value as a negotiating tool is as questionable as their military value. What nation threatened South Africa with nuclear weapons? None. The fUSSR wasn't interested in using nukes in South Africa, its primary targets were Europe and the USA. The USA wasn't interested. They were only to be used on neighbouring countries or internal enemies. Only the White South African government would have contemplated the last targets. They didn't value Black lives.

North Korea's nukes are mainly valuable as a negotiating tool, used to extract concessions from other nations with an interest in making sure those nukes don't get used. "Gee, if our backs were really to the wall we might have to use those... hope things don't get to that point!" accompanied by a meaningful glance at whatever it is they want, with the unspoken corollary that if they don't use the nukes then the regime might collapse, and who knows where the nukes would end up.

South Africa could try something similar. Nobody wants to see a nuclear-armed state collapse, and nobody wants to see what happens when a nuclear-armed state is put in a 'use them or lose them' situation. They could also dangle the promise of nuclear disarmament, in exchange for... well, whatever it is they wanted. Note that I'm not saying that these are good choices, but they do make a degree of sense for a nation that's already something of an outcast.

As for actually using the nukes, or threatening their use, note that the Mediterranean and Middle East are only a few thousand km from South Africa. It would be a long flight for a Buccaneer or Mirage F1, requiring multiple tankings (and more if you wanted the aircraft back afterwards), but they could theoretically deliver a bomb to areas where the superpowers, and the rest of the global community, had important interests. It's not as if the threat was something that could be ignored completely.