South African Civil War in Early 1990s

What if Nelson Mandela were to be assassinated. Would a civil war break out?

If so how would the South African regieme fare against African rebels?
 

Delta Force

Banned
The nuclear weapons program wasn't just for defense against communists, it was also to preserve apartheid. Although it started work ending the weapons program in the late 1980s, the apartheid government could try to reactivate it and threaten the use of nuclear weapons to bring about a desirable outcome through foreign intervention.
 
The nuclear weapons program wasn't just for defense against communists, it was also to preserve apartheid. Although it started work ending the weapons program in the late 1980s, the apartheid government could try to reactivate it and threaten the use of nuclear weapons to bring about a desirable outcome through foreign intervention.

I don't think that would work, nor in the event even be attempted.


But more practically the nuclear weapons would keep outside powers from intervening.
 
The nuclear weapons program wasn't just for defense against communists, it was also to preserve apartheid. Although it started work ending the weapons program in the late 1980s, the apartheid government could try to reactivate it and threaten the use of nuclear weapons to bring about a desirable outcome through foreign intervention.

I don't think that would work, nor in the event even be attempted.


But more practically the nuclear weapons would keep outside powers from intervening.

Yeah, not with the leadership that existed within the South African government at the time, you'd have to get people who were more radical than De Klerk in to make a nuclear option a reality.

Vortex by Larry Bond is a pretty good depiction of a possible South African civil war in the early 1990s.

But I'm not sure that the assassination of Nelson Mandela will lead to a civil war, you might need to get some other things to go wrong.

A South African civil war will also be messy, it won't just be the white government versus black rebels. You would have government forces, ANC forces, IFP forces (Zulu nationalists), and probably right-wing whites fighting against the government and the ANC et al.

EDIT: A plausible start for a civil war could be that the coup considered by Constand Viljoen in (I think) 1993 goes ahead. This will likely split the SADF, and may well see some elements in the homelands (especially Ciskei and Bophuthatswana) side with Viljoen (the leaders of these homelands didn't want to be reintegrated into South Africa). If negotiations end this will also see the ANC return to armed struggle.
 
Last edited:
Thanks for answering. This is helping with a 1990s TL that I'm writing. This will help out a lot.

I have a second question. Which factions would foreign powers back? Obviously the Cubans/Angolans/Soviets are going to back the anti-government forces, but will they back the SACP or the ANC? Would the US support the government or other forces fighting in teh country?
 
Thanks for answering. This is helping with a 1990s TL that I'm writing. This will help out a lot.

I have a second question. Which factions would foreign powers back? Obviously the Cubans/Angolans/Soviets are going to back the anti-government forces, but will they back the SACP or the ANC? Would the US support the government or other forces fighting in teh country?

The SACP and the ANC have been de facto one since the 1960s, so that's not really a question.

The Cubans and Soviets will back the ANC, while Red China might back the Azanian People's Liberation Army, which is the armed wing of the Pan-African Congress.

I doubt the US and UK would formally back anyone, but perhaps covert support would be given to government forces and the IFP.
 
The SACP and the ANC have been de facto one since the 1960s, so that's not really a question.

The Cubans and Soviets will back the ANC, while Red China might back the Azanian People's Liberation Army, which is the armed wing of the Pan-African Congress.

I doubt the US and UK would formally back anyone, but perhaps covert support would be given to government forces and the IFP.

By this point and time the Soviet Union is not in a position to back anybody...
 
By this point and time the Soviet Union is not in a position to back anybody...

Ha ha, oh yes.

Excellent point though.

That would obviously change the dynamics a bit. That could also mean that there would be far less support for the government coming from sympathetic nations in the West.

That was, after all, part of the reason apartheid ended. The fear of communism was over and thus the government could look to negotiate with the ANC, who had now lost their Communist backers.
 
Top