South African Bush War

Snowstalker

Nelson Mandela dies in early 1984 under ambiguous circumstances in Pollsmoor Prison, becoming a martyr for the anti-apartheid cause. Sporadic anti-government violence expands, black South Africans riot in the streets, and parts of the country begin to fall out of Pretoria's control. The Inkhata also revolt, hoping to establish an independent KwaZulu out of the entirety of Natal. Several bantustans secede, hoping to preserve themselves. Arms and men pour in for both sides--aid from socialist and anti-apartheid governments for the ANC and SACP, and far-right volunteers (and covert US/UK support) for the South African government.

What happens? I'm not only interested in the conflict, but in refugee flows and the war's effect on global politics.
 

Marius

Snowstalker said:
Nelson Mandela dies in early 1984 under ambiguous circumstances in Pollsmoor Prison, becoming a martyr for the anti-apartheid cause. Sporadic anti-government violence expands, black South Africans riot in the streets, and parts of the country begin to fall out of Pretoria's control. The Inkhata also revolt, hoping to establish an independent KwaZulu out of the entirety of Natal. Several bantustans secede, hoping to preserve themselves. Arms and men pour in for both sides--aid from socialist and anti-apartheid governments for the ANC and SACP, and far-right volunteers (and covert US/UK support) for the South African government.

What happens? I'm not only interested in the conflict, but in refugee flows and the war's effect on global politics.
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Vortex by Larry Bond is a quite good exploration of a civil war in South Africa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vortex_(Bond_and_Larkin_novel)
 

wtw

Thomas Wilkins said:
Only the government controls nukes. The question is who?
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Marius said:
Who would they nuke? And why?
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Zimbabwe comes to mind, places with lots of rebels or were rebel armor/aircraft is in large amounts, possibly Mozambique and Angola. I am suggesting capital cities with the countries that will be seen giving aid and arms to the rebel factions. This assumes the nukes stay in government hands, if any fall in to rebel hands I would not want to be in any major city in South Africa.
 

Marius

wtw said:
Zimbabwe comes to mind, places with lots of rebels or were rebel armor/aircraft is in large amounts, possibly Mozambique and Angola. I am suggesting capital cities with the countries that will be seen giving aid and arms to the rebel factions. This assumes the nukes stay in government hands, if any fall in to rebel hands I would not want to be in any major city in South Africa.
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But why would they?

In any civil war in SA, there will be at least some sympathy for the whites in the West. If they start dropping nukes on Harare or Maputo any sympathy will evaporate immediately.

The only way nukes would be used would be in a hopeless situation, where madmen have taken over the SA government, and Soviet and Cuban tanks are barrelling down the N1 on their way to the Union Buildings.
 

walmart

Marius said:
The only way nukes would be used would be in a hopeless situation, where madmen have taken over the SA government, and Soviet and Cuban tanks are barrelling down the N1 on their way to the Union Buildings.
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Another way could be an White Samson option where a large amount of whites are at risk of being slaughtered
 
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