Sorry Stalin, no bomb for you!

[FederationX]

According to the CIA Intelligence Memorandum 225, "Estimate of Status of Atomic Warfare", the Soviet Union would not be capable of devolping and test an atomic bomb until as early as mid-1950 and as late as the early 60s, the most probable date sometime in 1953 or 1954. This report was still ongoing in September of 1949, a month after the Soviet Union tested their first atomic bomb. The American governmnet believed that the Soviet Union was not as far in research then they actually were, and were confident that they would not have the bomb until at least the mid-50s. Some of this partly based on the fact that both Molotov and Beria did not fully understand the impact of atomic weaponry and were in slow in their research.

So let us say, for whatever reason, the the Soviet Union does not test its first atomic bomb until 1960 (just for the sake of argument). How would this effect the world for some 10 years without the communist superpower having the bomb? The United States in a sense rushed the hydrogen bomb project because they knew that the Soviet Union would be able to produce one as well, and the Americans wanted it first. However, if the Soviets never even produce the atomic bomb, the hydrogen bomb might be delayed. In real life the United States had around 200 atomic bombs in their stockpile by the end of 1949. In 1950, the USA had 299 bombs, 438 by 1952 and 841 by 1953. The Soviet Union had only 50 atomic bombs by 1953, a 17:1 disadvantage.

Stalin believed the USA would not start a war of the purpose to wipe them out becuase he believed the Americans would want a huge advantage in the nuclear arena. So, if the United States had about 300 bombs by the time the Korean War starts and the Soviet Union has 0, would the USA be less reluctent to take all of Korea? It's possible that the United States would risk a war with China for all of Korea if they know the SU doesn't have an atomic bomb. It's true that Mao was reluctent to fight a full scale war with America, so would the USA have a free hand in North Korea? Would MacArthur still be in command after 1951?

So, how would the world differ, and the Korean War (and any other that may start due to the POD), if the Soviet Union did not have the bomb until 1960, letting the Americans have a monoply over them for an extra 10 or so years? (No Cuban Missile Crisis, that's for sure. Also, the hydrogen bomb might be delayed if the U.S. isn't forced to build in order to compete with the Soviets.

 

[FederationX]

A wrote a very short timeline/story about an alternate Korean War where the Soviet Union does not have the atomic bomb and how it effects the war big time. It just shows how Truman would not fire MacArrthur and that the U.S. might be more willing to use nuclear weapons if they knew they and their allies were not threatend by nukes.

This is an imcomplete and very rough draft. It's just giving me ideas for a bigger and better timeline where the SU wont get the bomb till '60. I don't like everything I wrote and is a little one-sided but its very rough and basic, so please don't hurt me! . I'm justing brainstorming ideas about this topic since no one else contrinuted to this What If.


Korea and the limited Nuclear War

The Korean War took a turn for the worst in April 1951 when the United States authorized the use of nuclear weapons against Chinese and Soviet military facilities in Manchuria if China were to send more troops and supplies into Korea. General Douglas MacArthur acknowledged President Truman's policy that American soldiers would not cross into China. However, by June thousands of more Chinese soldiers were crossing into North Korea and American troops were once again pushed back below the 38th Parallel. On July 17th Truman authorized MacArthur to push the Chinese off the entire Korean Peninsula and six days later UN forces pushed forward on all fronts. Pyongyang was captured again in August and the frontline had stabilized about 35 miles north of the city. Mao seeing that more aid had to be sent finally authorized another 250,000 Chinese soldiers to reinforce the North Koreans. The UN forces were once again pushed back and in October Truman authorized the use of nuclear weapons against military bases and supply depots in Manchuria.

Truman knew the implications of using atomic weapons and was willing to risk Soviet entry into the war. Knowing that the Soviet Union had not yet developed the atomic bomb, the president was willing to fight a war in Europe if need be. He was hoping cooler heads would prevail and the conflict would remain in China. On October 28th, 1951, six B-29 dropped ten atomic bombs on Chinese military bases and on the industrial cities of Qiqihar and Harbin. The bombs ranged from 25 to 80 kilotons in size. Reports later estimated that over 1,000,000 Chinese were killed and another 2,500,000 were injured. The People's Republic of China and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics formally declared war on the United States of America the next day.

Over the next few months the United States would win a few naval engagements against the Red Navy in the western Pacific and effectively push the Chinese/North Korean force all the way back into China. President Truman authorized the formation of ten new infantry divisions, two armored divisions and fifteen regimental combat teams. Many of these unites were placed in Korea and western Europe. The Soviet Union never struck in Europe, fearing an all-out nuclear barrage on its cities. By March of 1952 all Chinese and North Korean troops were pushed out of Korea and UN forces occupied the entire peninsula. The United States Army and Marine Corps forces totaled some 750,000 in strength with another 350,000 Republic of Korea (South Korea) troops in reserve. In June, however, China and the Soviet Union launched a huge offensive into northern Korea and pushed MacArthur's forces back over 75 miles. Over 20,000 Americans and 15,000 South Koreans died, plus some 3,000 UN troops. China and the Soviet Union suffered a total of 150,000 casualties.

Truman offered a cease-fire in which China and the Soviet Union would be required to leave the entire Korean Peninsula. The Sino-Soviet Alliance refused and pushed all the way back to Pyongyang. In August, nuclear bombs exploded over the Soviet port city of Vladivostok. Within minutes the city disappeared from the face of the Earth. This left the United States with total superiority in the Pacific Ocean and also led to the U.S. Navy's huge victory at the Battle of the Taiwan Strait. Days later Japanese cities were bombed killing thousands, while American and UN forces were pushed backed all the way to Seoul. On September 23rd, B-29s bombed more targets in Manchuria and now Siberia, killing over two million more civilians and military personal. The same day, MacArthur's plan to bomb Sino-Soviet forces in Korea was authorized and more atomic bombs exploded over northern and central Korea, killing 350,000 soldiers and 75,000 civilians.

The fighting stopped. An armistice was signed in December in which Korea was united under UN rule. The United States was looked down as a warmongering beast by much of the world. NATO did survive and the Cold War did continue, although not at the same scale as in OTL. Stalin died in 1953 a bitter man. China started to rebuild with a lot of money being brought in from the United States. Europe continued to be a hotbed of Cold War activity, however Asia was now secure for the United States. The Soviet Union would test its first atomic bomb in 1958, while the USA would test the first hydrogen bomb in 1960, the Soviet Union following in 1966. MacArthur would be one of America's greatest hero's and be president from 1953-1957. Truman was looked down as a misguided soul that killed 20,000,000 million people. So while the Cold War was less of a challenge for the United States, the world was not as whole was it was in OTL, sadly do to the fact the USA had a monopoly on nuclear weapons and was not afraid to use them as in OTL in the Korean War.

 

[DuQuense]

In June, however, China and the Soviet Union launched a huge offensive into northern Korea and pushed MacArthur's forces back over 75 miles. Over 20,000 Americans and 15,000 South Koreans died, plus some 3,000 UN troops. China and the Soviet Union suffered a total of 150,000 casualties.

Truman offered a cease-fire in which China and the Soviet Union would be required to leave the entire Korean Peninsula. The Sino-Soviet Alliance refused and pushed all the way back to Pyongyang. In August, nuclear bombs exploded over the Soviet port city of Vladivostok.

I don't see this --if the US had used A Bombs on Military bases North of the Yalu to stop the first wave of Chinese. and taken the whole peninsula. There would have been nothing to stop a second round of Bombing during the second assault. But I don't see the Attacks on the Cities. I think whe would have concentrated on any attempted buildup, of Sino-Soviet forces. IE it would have been Tactical not Strategic targets picked.

Yes I know our Bombs were not that Accurate, But claiming to drop your Bomb on the Base in the outskirts, is a different thing than dropping then in the town centre.

 

[BurningWickerman]

I think if US was so liberal in its use of nuclear weapons on civilian targets the rest of the world would be Marxist by 1970.

 

[FederationX]

Well like I said it's a very rough draft, just brainstorming ideas. DOes anyone have any ideas in general if the Soviets don't get the bomb? That's the whole point of this thread. I think the world would change a great deal if the USA has a monopoly on nuclear weapons for ten extra years. I don't crae if my ideas are bashed (brainstorming, not written in stone) but it would be nice if other people had ideas. Am I the only one who finds it interesting?

 

[DocOrlando]

I don't believe that Soviet intervention in Korea would be stepped up if they didn't have atomics; far from it. The very fact that you mention Soviet unwillingness to open a second front in Europe speaks to this. It would be far easier for Stalin to pursue aggression against targets in Central and Western Europe (read: BERLIN!) than to push troops all the way across Central Asia on behalf of a tenuous ally -- socialist brotherhood notwithstanding.

That mitigates the likelihood of Truman using atomics as well, for two reasons.

The primary reason I think he would refrain from using them is a moral one. Unlike with Japan, in this situation there isn't the clear moral imperative (or the exhaustion of nearly six years of war) to deal a knockout punch. Escalating the battle so unilaterally would provoke substantial outrage, even if 85 percent of the world doesn't even know where Korea is. I don't think we'd be considered "warmongering," as the NKoreans and Chinese started the thing, but we'd certainly be well-hounded for killing thousands-to-millions with such impunity.

The second, real-politik reason for Truman to hold off is, as soon as the Soviets decide to get involved, it's World War III, without exception. This would not be a proxy war. The Allied sectors of Germany would be under fire in hours if not minutes, and Berlin would be under siege or captured within a day or two.

I suppose the big question is, how stupid is Stalin?

 

[Melvin Loh]

Guys, wasn't this CIA report largely a product of America's own ethnocentric underestimation of the power of Communist technological development ?

 

[FederationX]

Guys, wasn't this CIA report largely a product of America's own ethnocentric underestimation of the power of Communist technological development ?

In a way. I don't believe that the bomb would have been delayed as much as the CIA said but what if it was?

 

[lope3328]

It probably would give us an advantage in the korean war. The Soviets or the Chinese may not be willing to help out N. Korea as much as they did in OTL.