Some thoughts for alternate battle of Jutland outcomes.

Based upon this thread, I decided to combine a previous thread of mine with this concept, to try to get a better picture of what happened OTL, and just what the consequences of a German victory at Jutland would likely have been.

So, for starters, go read the OP in both those threads, and in the second thread (mine), feel free to read to the end, as some good background work has already been done and for some shocking discoveries about the OTL naval arms race between the UK and Germany. I think "shocking" is not too strong a word, at least for folks, who like me, just thought that both sides were, indeed, making a full on race of it, and then discover the truth!

For the initial (and, I at least, feel very un-likely to occur) premise, let’s say that the historical fleets meet, and the whole of the (151 committed ships of the) GF are completely wiped out, for say 2/3 of the (99 committed ships of the) HSF. To get a clear picture of just what exactly the remaining balance of fleet strengths would be, could someone post a list of what the UK has left, assuming no additional ships than OTL?

Here and here, are a pair of links to previous (and sadly incomplete) information posts, that can get folks started. Note; the UK didn’t commit any pre-dreadnoughts to the OTL battle of Jutland, nor the HMS Dreadnought herself, nor several of the other ships that followed her, so all of those are going to remain. The second link shows the entire HSF (minus the BC’s) big gunned ships, and to my understanding, all those that preceded the Deutschland class were not in the BoJ either, and thus would be potentially available for immediate use thereafter. Also note, that the German response to the QE class, the Bayern class, were not ready at the time of Jutland either, and so would have been ready just about the time the remaining ships were just starting to come back into service, after their extensive repairs would have been completed.

My own (and some others thoughts) on what this would mean can be found here, here, here, and here, but perhaps with a discussion dedicated to this particular question, we can get the clearest picture yet.

Any thoughts?
 
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I have a scenario with this in mind. However, I will prefer heavier German losses. I still prefer the annihilation of as many British and German units to deprieve the Germans of victory or give them something pyrrhic, and stay as realistic as possible.
Magazine explosion close calls for the British:
1] HMS Tiger:
Hit on 'Q' barbette at 1554.`X' turret was hit on the 9in barbette armour near its junction with the 3in armour and the lin upper deck. A piece of 9in armour 27in x 16in was broken off, the 3in armour dented in about 3in and the upper deck holed, while the 4in armour plate adjoining the 3in was also dented at the top corner. The shell entered the turret through the revolving structure about 3ft below the lower edge of the turret shield, but did not explode properly, though the bursting charge ignited with a partial burst and partial rocket effect just inside the turn-table, and the body of the shell without the point, remained in the lower floor of the gun-house between the guns in the centre of the turret, together with large fragments of armour. The centre sight-setter was blown against the roof and killed but there were apparently no other casualties, respirators preventing any gassing.
9 This hit at 1555, pierced the 6in side armour a little below the upper deck, and 2ft forward of the after edge of `Q' barbette. The angle to the normal was estimated at 5-10°, and the shell made a hole of 12'/tin diameter in the side armour with a piece 6in wide broken away to the edge of the plate, passed through a 3/Bin bulkhead and burst against a second one, 22ft from impact and 8ft from the after 6in hoist. There were 2-6in charges near the top of the hoist which were set on fire, but the flash did not pass down the trunk to the shell room and magazine. Severe damage was done to light structures along the path of the shell and near the burst and some damage done well aft of the latter, and also to the middle line of the ship. Many holes were made in the 3/Bin main deck, and the base of the shell also went through the I in armour deck making a hole 101/2in x 9in, and penetrated the 3/4in thick web of the main steam pipe. Another fragment also went through the main deck, a 3/Bin bulkhead and the 1 in armour deck. The fire-main was perforated by small holes and the casualties were 12 killed and several wounded and gassed.
The after 6in magazine was flooded, and `Q' port magazine, a relatively small compartment as most of `Q' magazine was to starboard, also flooded through a ventilation pipe from the 6in magazine, as an attempt to close the 6in ventilation valve failed. When 'Q' port magazine was full, water leaked badly through the venting plates, and it appears that the after 6in shell room flooded, and water also entered `Q' shell room. It does not appear to have been necessary to flood the after 6in magazine, and it was done by the Stoker PO of the flooding party after consultation with the rating in charge of the magazine. Some water had previously entered from the cut fire-main.
Have the shells explode properly in either or both case and the ship explodes.
HMS Queen Mary, Indefatigable and Invincible explode as per otl [more or less, pod of Tiger sinking may not butterfly Queen Mary's fate and definitely not Indefatigable's explosion].
HMS Lion: [Q Turret hit destroyed turret and caused severe damage. The pod can be Francis Harvey dying and/or a less competent management of magazine flooding or cordite].
HMS Barham: hit at c1701.

The explosion blew a hole 7ft x 7ft in the main deck, and part of the shell head went through the 1 in middle deck and was found in the lower conning tower. The 3/8in lower deck, forming the roof of the forward 6in magazine directly below the lower CT, was holed and this magazine and the 6in shell room filled with smoke. Other fragments also pierced the middle deck, and the starboard forward hydraulic pump was put out of action by fracture of the pressure pipe to the hydraulic governor, though the remaining three pumps kept all four turrets going. The largest hole in the middle deck measured 18in x 15m and that in the lower deck over the 6in magazine 15in x 12m.
While this hit is unlikely to destroy the ship, better fighting conditions [for the Germans] might get the 6 inch magazine to explode and start a chain reaction to destroy the ship.
HMS Malaya: second hit at 1730. [close call in reality]

Two hits at 1730. One of these hits was unimportant, the shell striking the lower boom stanchion and causing damage'to the starboard forward superstructure, but the other came near to bringing about the destruction of the ship.
This SAP shell which had an angle of descent of 20-25° pierced the I in forecastle deck, 6ft from the ship's side, near No 3 starboard 6in gun, making a hole Sit x 4ft, and burst 7ft from impact, seriously damaging the gun, which had to be replaced, and wrecking the mounting. The tin upper deck was forced down several inches by the explosion and fragments wrecked the galley and canteen inboard of the battery. A large part of the head of the shell was deflected off the upper deck, went through the 1/41n battery rear bulkhead and stopped against the tin C/L bulkhead about 30ft from the burst. It was usual at this time to have 12 charges per 6in gun stowed in the battery in rectangular `W' cases (each containing four charges) for which small racks were provided, and shell fragments penetrated some of these cases and ignited the charges. The resultant cordite fire involved other 6in cartridges in the battery, including those still in their cases which were made of soft-soldered sheet brass and were not fireproof. The whole starboard battery was put out of action for a time with 102 casualties, and all electric cables in the battery were destroyed. Two of the six guns were in action again by 1925.
The flash from the cordite passed down the 6in ammunition hoist into the 6in shell room and was only prevented from igniting a group of 10-6in cartridges, hooked on ready for hoisting, by the prompt action of PO Day and L/S Watson in removing smouldering debris. If these cartridges had ignited, there is little doubt that the forward 6m magazine, above the shell-room, and with two handing scuttles open to the latter, would have exploded, and as this magazine was adjacent to the forward 151n magazines, the loss of the ship must have followed.
Damage control incompetence or maybe the officers involved incapitated [due to more shells or flames] might have destroyed the ship when the magazines explode.
HMS Princess Royal: Around 1822
Of the 2-12in shells coming from abaft the beam, which struck the Princess Royal at about 1822, one hit the 9in armour of `X' barbette obliquely on the forward side about 2ft above the upper deck, glanced downwards through the I in plating of the latter and burst just below it, about 8ft from impact. A large fragment of the 9in armour measuring 6ft x 20in, was broken off with concentric cracks in the plate, and the fragment was driven through the turntable into the gun-house at the left side of the left gun, coming to rest on the platform at the rear, after
hitting an unfused shrapnel shell in the shell-bin. All the crew of the left gun were killed, the breech mechanism damaged and pressure pipes destroyed on the left side, but the gun could still be worked. The turret, however, was out of action, as it was jammed in training by the displacement and distortion of the 9in barbette armour. In addition to breaking a large piece off the 9in plate, the impact of the shell had sheared the armour fastenings to the upper deck and completely broken the key to the plate, which was lifted 9in at one end and 51/tin at the other. The frames behind the armour were carried away, and the Bin plate adjoining the 9in above the upper deck was cracked at the lower and chipped at the upper corner, while the 3in plate which extended up to the upper deck was deformed below the 9in plate and a piece 3 ft x 1 in fractured.
The shell tore a 9ft x 2 ft hole in the upper deck, and the burst badly damaged two 1/4in bulkheads, and caused considerable damage to light structures, as well as cutting trunks and breathing pipes from the ventilation and cooling plant of `X' magazine.
The other shell pierced the 6in side armour just above the main deck, and a little forward of `X' barbette. The angle of impact is given as 15-20° to the plate normal, and the hole as 12in x 12in with a number of concentric cracks. The shell tore the 3/bin-5/16in main deck over the starboard after reserve bunker for 17ft from the ship's side to the fan-room bulkhead, was deflected upwards, badly damaged the casings of both condenser rooms and burst 52ft from impact on the port side below the 1 in upper deck, in which a hole 6ft x 6ft was blown, while the main deck over the port after reserve bunker was riddled. Many casualties were caused among the after 4in crews and salvage party, and
the flash of the burst ignited some cordite on the main deck. Both after engine-rooms filled with dense smoke and some penetrated to the starboard forward engine-room, but dispersed after the fires were subdued.
These two shells, which together killed 11 and wounded 31, were from one salvo from the Markgraf at a range of about 13,000yds.
Have either one or both of the shells explode properly or better fighting ranges for the Germans and it may explode. However, if the British were sane, they'd have retreated following the destruction of 4 battlecruisers [and maybe a fast battleship] to magazine explosions.
HMS Invincible, New Zealand and Indomitable: [maybe] possible due to butterflies from the exploded British battlecruisers and fast battleships and/or better fighting conditions for the Germans. [Note that HMS New Zealand suffered hit on X barbette that resulted in fire, dubious if it is threatening, but probably not. HMS Colossus was also hit around 1916 and suffered a small fire from cordite, unlikely to be threatening though because of cordite arrangement, however, a properly exploding shell would have greater impact to explode the ship, wouldn't it?]
With a pod of 31 May 1916, at least the HMS Lion and Malaya could've exploded. Working shells could've exploded [at least] the Lion, Tiger and Princess Royal. Better fighting ranges for the Germans could've exploded the HMS Tiger, Princess Royal, Lion [?] and maybe New Zealand, Barham and Malaya. Incompetence would have exploded HMS Lion, Malaya and maybe other ships. [HMS Colossus could also have been lost to an explosion through any of the above factors, although they need to be combined [two at least].] And this is in addition to otl losses. Remaining battlecruisers due to butterflies can be sunk through explosions from gunfire.

Torpedo misses:
Before the battle, the British forces were reported by u boats, but escaped. Have one submarine or two sink two capital ships or cruiser before the battle begins.
During the battle:
The British suffered some near misses from torpedoes at Jutland that could have been quite painful. The POD is that Lady Luck is not so kind to the British and the near misses turn into hits.
List of near torpedo-misses for British at Jutland:
1) Torpedo hit but did not explode on Revenge (Robert K. Massie, Castles of Steel, pg. 623), one passed ten yards before bow and another twenty from stern (Massie, 630; V.E. Tarrant, Jutland: The German Perspective, pg. 167).
]2) Marlborough would have been hit stern if helm not swinging and one passed under the ship but went too deep (Massie, 629-30; Tarrant, 167] Marlborough already had one torpedo hit, either from Wiesbaden or V-48 which caused a 7 degree list and slowed her to 17 knots. (Arthur Marder, Jutland and After, Vol. 3, From the Dreadnought to Scapa Flow, pg. 123) 3) Agincourt had one pass port and another starboard (Massie, 630)[/SIZE][/FONT][/LEFT]
One torpedo hits. Agincourt moderately damaged.
4) Neptune was pursued by one, either deflected by prop wash or ran out of fuel (Massie, 630, Tarrant, pg. 155)
Torpedo hits. Neptune heavily damaged.
5) One torpedo passed between Thunderer and Iron Duke (Tarrant, pg. 167)
[Torpedo hits Thunderer and inflicts moderate damage. ]
Also, torpedoes were observed moving in the direction of Hercules, Colossus, Collingwood and Barham according to Massie. And, have the Germans launch a devastating torpedo attack at close range at night to increase the battleship count.
After the battle:
6) U-51 attacked Warspite on morning of June 1 without destroyer screen.
She tried to fire two torpedoes but one never launched and the other broke surface, warning Warspite so she can dodge. U-51 did not pursue as she misidentified her as a pre-dreadnought Canopus class (Tarrant, pg. 243).
7) Bauer, the U-boat leader, ordered U-32 and U-24 to stay out an extra day and to change patrols from Firth of Forth to the Tyne mouth to intercept damaged British warships. U-70 did not receive the order because it was attacked and forced to dive repeatedly and so left on June 1 per its original orders. Thus Beatty was able to return without any trouble (Tarrant, pg. 244-45).
]8) U-43 and U-44 were stationed off the Pentland Firth approach to Scapa Flow. U-43 never received the order to stay out an extra day and returned before Jellicoe arrived. U-44 did stay but rough weather prevented any attack (Tarrant, pg. 245).
Plus any working u boat torpedo from U46 or any other U Boat that hits Marlborough or any moderately, heavily or torpedo damaged ship [if still afloat and able to return to Britain].
 
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I have a scenario with this in mind. However, I will prefer heavier German losses. I still prefer the annihilation of as many British and German units to deprieve the Germans of victory or give them something pyrrhic, and stay as realistic as possible.
Well, this is of course an alternate outcome. My own interests along these lines is for the Germans to do better, buy building bigger gunned ships earlier, but still facing the defeat as historically, because of the points outlined in the OP as well as the links provided.
 
The easiest alternative outcome is for the British battleships to open fire during the night encounters. I read Jutland ever decade, and each time I still can't believe that Jellicoe's captains held their fire.
 
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