Some questions on Russian Constantinople.

Abhakhazia

Banned
So the idea of the Russians taking Constantinople sometime between its fall and WWI entered my mind the other day, and a few questions popped into my head.

1. Is this plausible at all? Is there any key point and time where the Russians can plausibly take Constantinople? If so, when would that time period be. I kind of assumed the mid-19th century but I'm not an expert.
2. Would, in the case of Russian Constantinople, would there be a Russian Rumelia, Thrace, or Russian portion of Anatolia surrounding the city? I assume there would have been at least a small Russian area around the straights, but I'm really more interested to see how much the Russians plausibly could take.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
Catherine the Great got pretty close, or at least Austria and Prussia believed she had a shot, which is why Poland-Lithuania got butchered as a consolation prize.
 
Catherine the Great, or maybe during the Napoleonic Wars, but I'd say almost certainly not later than that.

"We don't want to fight, but by Jingo if we do,
We've got the ships, we've got the men, we've got the money too:
We've fought the Bear before, and while Englishmen are true
The Russians shall not have Constantinople."
 
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Sure, they COULD have. The question was always whether Russia could survive the onslaught of the other powers if they went all-out and took it. The consensus is usually that they could not, but there were times when that was not the case. In addition, there were times when Russia played the Ottomans close and they could have chosen to double-cross and stab then in the back instead.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Well if you have Russia be so much more powerful then all the other powers combined (maybe not that Russia could invade all of them but on home turf) and keeps encroaching south holding most of the Black sea until finally taking Constantinople and then weathering the storm of other powers. Maybe a Russian Napoleon could hold it for a while as he fights through East europe
 
So the idea of the Russians taking Constantinople sometime between its fall and WWI entered my mind the other day, and a few questions popped into my head.

1. Is this plausible at all?

It's absolutely plausible - certainly by the 19th century.

It was only the British Mediterranean Fleet (and the threat of a British DOW that lurked behind it) that kept them outside the city walls in 1878.
 
Russia sides/backs Bulgaria in the Balkan wars instead of playing anti-Bulgaria as in OTL. If they WERE only smarter and not so much shortsighted, these bloody Russians...

guerresbalkaniques1gf.gif


Bulgaria takes Constantinople, and then gives it to its ally Russia. The borderlines are at Chataldja and Bulair ( i.e. Bulgaria holds the European shores of Marmara sea, less Galipoli peninsula and the tip of the European continent east of Chataldja line ). Russia occupies Asia minor and starts de-turkize it ( turks only 6mln. people OTL ).

Of course an equivalent of WW1 bursts out, but Central powers consist of Germany-AH-Bulgaria-Russia.
 
What language does Asia Minor speak in this scenario? Greek? Bulgarian? Russian?

Official - Russian. + Greek & Armenian & Assyrian

Aftermath:

This *Central powers of 4 win the *WW1 ::

A-H takes Western half of Serbia, Moldova, Montenegro, Sandjak, Lybia & Egypt

Bulgaria takes Eastern half of Serbia, Albania, Greece, Wallahia, all the ex-Ottoman European provinces less Sandjac, Constantinople ( at Chataldja ) and Galipoli peninsula ( at Bulair ). The "excessive" non-BG population is "gently" moved to Asia Minor, to "dilute" the Turks and Kurds rendering them into absolute minorities and to feed the new russian territory with loyal majority of ortodox christians and some non-turk muslims.

Germany takes all colonies out of France, Belgium, Netherlands + the ex-Ottoman lands south of Anatolia. Forms Israel as Reich dependency in Palestine.

Russia takes Asia Minor, Iran...

In such world the WW2 is obsolete, and the world directly enters into a Cold ( or Balmy ) war between the Germany-AH-Russia-Bulgaria union and British-US-Japan union.
 
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Official - Russian. + Greek & Armenian & Assyrian

By this point, nationalism already exists, so I doubt that Russia would be able to assimilate the Anatolians and make them Russians, especially with the religious differences. I'd estimate that Turkey at this point is a little less than half Turks (6 million out of 13 million), with the rest being Greeks (2 million or so), Kurds (2 million), Armenians (1.5 million), Assyrians (.5 million), and others (1 million, including Circassians, Arabs, Bulgarians, Jews, Zazas, Laz, Georgians, Persians, etc).

There might be an influx of Russians into Anatolia but not enough to become a majority there, and I would foresee Russian Anatolia eventually gaining independence in the same way that other regions of the former Russian Empire with concentrated ethnic minority populations became independent (Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, the ‘Stans).

How Russian Anatolia would be administered is an interesting question, though - Would it be divided into several smaller divisions? When time comes for independence, would we have a single, unified Anatolian state, or several? I could see an Turkish state, a Kurdish state, a much larger Armenia, and maybe Thrace would be part of Bulgaria. Ethnic Russians might be concentrated around Istanbul and Thrace, so these areas might stay part of Russia, or Istanbul might become an independent city-state?
 
pa_dutch,

Yes. I readed the same demographic figures for OTL pre-WW1 Anatolian populations.

In OTL it starts from this ( 6mln. turks, 2mln. greeks, 2mln. armenians, 3mln.others ) and via different demographic mechanisms goes to the present day OTL situation of NO greeks and armenians, 50+ mln. turks and 15+ mln. kurds ).

The demographic picture of Russian Anatolia might be changed using the same mechanisms for demographic dynamics as in OTL but in more or less reverse:

on the 13mln. various population via mass deportations ( over a long period of a decade or two ) from the expanded *Bulgaria ( including Wallachia, Eastern Serbia, all Albanias, all of Greece with the islands ) into Anatolia would be moved: 3mln. greeks, 2mln. serbs, 4mln. romanians, 1mln. albanians. IF the same measures as in OTL applied on the turk pops. as Ottomans/Young turks on armenians and asyrians in OTL - then from 6 they'll decrease to 2-3mln or less... The economical segregation will further push their demographics down. And deportations to Central Asia and Siberia. And forced labor for making the vast Germany-AH-Bulgaria-Russia railway network. Especially the "diagonal" Hamburg-Kuwait.

The picture in 1930es would be:
- 2mln. russians
- 7mln. greeks
- 3mln. serbs
- 5mln. romanians
- 1mln. albanians
- 3mln. turks
- 2mln. kurds
- 1mln. asyrians
- 4mln. armenians
- 1mln. others
--------------
Total of 29mln. of which 60% Ortodox chrisrtians and 80% total christians.
The different ethnic groups would be almost evenly distributed across the territory.
Thus the chances for independence are diminishing to almost zero.

In 2010es - the population of Anatolia is nearly 100mln. ( no communism to f**k up economy ), of which 95% non-as-in-OTL.

Colorful mosaic of ethnicities united by the Tsar-emperor and the Partiarch in Constantinople. The individual languages and cultures could be nominally preserved, but non-territorially - similar to "MIllet" systeom of the Ottomans.

Constitutionally Anatolia ( + Tsarigrad ) would perhaps follow the patern as with Finland. Russian Empire is unitary absolute monarchy state, still Finland had rich internal structure since 1819.

Nominally Anatolia could be deemed as "spiritial" reincarnation of Byzantine Empire, but run as part of unitary Russia. Add "aparteid" vs. the non-Christian subjects.

Eastern Thrace in this scenario is Bulgarian. Down to Chataldja and Bulair.

Constantinople and Western ( Aegean ) Anatolia is nearly 100% Ortodox.

Constantinople OF COUSE becomes THE capital of the Russian Empire and itself alone "enjoys" infusion of millions and millions of Russians.
 
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