alternatehistory.com

First let me define the background scenario so we are all on the same page.

Let us assume that Lincoln refuses to believe Seward’s assessment that the British will go to war over the Trent affair if the Commissioners are not returned to them immediately. Instead he offers international mediation. Three days later (30th Dec 1861) small numbers of British troops invade the state of New York and take up defensive positions.

Less than two weeks after the start of hostilities the Royal Navy blockades the mouth of the Chesapeake, destroying a significant fraction of the USN in the process. Within just over four months of that the whole East Coast of the USA has been blockaded by the British and immigration halted, the blockade of the South is over, much of the USN is lost, the coastal industry of the Chesapeake including Baltimore harbour has been burned or plundered, British troops occupy Portland in Maine, Martha’s Vineyard and Cape Cod, the Union coastal enclaves have fallen or have been abandoned and over ten thousand prisoners taken there, San Francisco is taken, the US Mint there seized and the lower goldfields occupied, almost the whole of the Union northern whaling fleet is taken in summer quarters in the Sea of Cortez, the Union merchant fleet has been swept from the seas either taken, reflagged or trapped in port. The Confederates, equipped with new materiel of war from Europe begin new offensives in the heartland and in Maryland/Pennsylvania in a bid to isolate Washington DC. New Orleans is never attacked nor taken by the Union. The French, emboldened by the disarray of the USA and the preoccupation of the British press forward more swiftly than in OTL with their plans for Mexico re-offering the throne to Maximillian (who was already in the New World) the throne in May 1862. The loss of trade and war with Britain causes a run on the banks and the collapse of numerous financial institutions in the Union. Tens of thousands are laid off due to the cessation of the Atlantic trade with Britain on which their jobs relied. The draft is expanded, the quality of weapons and equipment issued to the Army declines rapidly. Due to the acute powder shortage recruits go into battle having never fired their weapon. The Union has successes too, driving all British forces from New York State, occupying the Niagara peninsula and besieging Kinston and Montreal.

Kingston falls to the Union in June. In June and July the Royal Navy sacks and burns the harbours of New York, Boston, Providence and New Haven, they fail in the attempt to reach Philadelphia losing several ships in the action. The Royal Navy relief force fights its way up the St Lawrence to Lake Ontario with heavy losses causing the union forces besieging the City of Montreal to withdraw and landing forces at the Welland Canals cutting off the retreat of the Union Army at Kingston. British troops occupy most of the coastal towns of Maine down to Portsmouth and control the railways above that point. The British install a puppet government in California and repudiate the Oregon Treaty. The British land at Colon, defeat the Union forces there and take control of the intercontinental railway. By June the Confederate armies in the heartland have occupied Bowling Green and are pushing forward towards Louisville. In the East the Virginians are closing the noose around Washington DC. French forces from Asia occupy Fort Yuma and Pueblo San Diego. A Confederate expedition begins from Texas to link up with them. The French discuss recognition with the CSA. Terms are agreed whereby the CSA will support modifications to the border in California and the South West in exchange for recognition. In late July France recognises the CSA. Belgium, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire soon follow. The CSA recognises Mexico as a French possession even though they only control the Vera Cruz, Oaxaca, Acapulco triangle, the north-west with Baja California and the area around Mazatlan.

In August, with great reluctance the British recognise the Confederacy. The Vanderbilt, the last Union commerce raider still at large is defeated in battle by two frigates of HMIN off the coast of Ceylon. The French with double the number of troops in Mexico they had in OTL Take Mexico City and Monterrey. There are bread and draft riots in New York City and Chicago and further food riots in many other cities.

The Union sues for peace with the British in late September. The British agree a cease fire but only if it applies to the CSA and France as well. They also demand a Peace Conference like that in Vienna after the Napoleonic Wars, they also propose that the French allies in Mexico and the Juarista rebels in Mexico are invited. The Union reluctantly agrees, as it has no choice. Of course the CSA agrees and somewhat surprisingly so do the French. The Conference is initially planned for late October in Karlsruhe but the French and CSA successfully postpone it until January. In the meantime both parties conspire to defeat the Mexican rebels with CSA forces joining those of France and her allies who are not part of the cease fire. Juarez is captured at the beginning of December.

Just after the Union sues for peace but before the cease fire, southern Alta California from Pueblo Los Angles on up holds a convention and calls for separation from the rest of the state and joining the Confederacy. The population of the north of the state is divided roughly evenly with half wanting to stay in the Union and holding on to the south and half wanting to let them go and become independent of the Union themselves. There are violent protests and the British forces of occupation intervene with the local commanders subtly supporting those wanting independence.

At the peace conference, the situation is left largely as it was at the end of the war. The Confederacy retained all the states that had joined it Va, NC, SC, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas and Tennessee. They also retained the new state of Western Kentucky and a thin, abbreviated Arizona territory linking Texas to the second new state of Southern California. An internationally supervised referendum was ordered over the state of West Virginia which resulted in the lower two thirds of the state returning to the Confederacy whilst the upper third went with the Union in 1864. The lower Mississippi is part of the CSA not an international water way, commerce upon it is at her discretion. The CSA demanded reparations for the damage done to her infrastructure and got about 30% of what she asked for paid over 20 years.

The northern border with British North America saw little change. The far north of Maine was ceded to Canada and New Brunswick as was the Rochester strip between the Erie Canal and Lake Ontario. Northern New York State remained in the hands of the USA but was demilitarised for 40 years and all forts destroyed. The USA ceded the right to interfere with or control British traffic upon the St Lawrence. The southern shore of Lake in the Woods became the new border. In the far west the Olympia peninsula and all of the islands between Vancouver Island and the Bellingham channel were ceded to the British. A referendum was ordered in Maine to decide if the people of the state wished to become part of the new Confederation being formed in BNA or remain in the Union. They voted by a modest margin to remain in the USA. The British demanded a Union acceptance of free trade and the end of tariffs on imports for a period of 20 years.

The lowest part of California around Pueblo San Diego was ceded to Mexico as was an area of the South West slightly larger than the Gasden Purchase. The Sea of Cortez was recognised as an internal sea of Mexico.

A final referendum was held in 1865 as a result of which the northern Alta California became the independent nation of California.

At the close of the Peace Conference, Prussia the last hold out against recognition of the CSA conceded her independence.

Thus in this scenario the CSA gains its independence with a relatively minor loss of manpower compared with OTL, as much territory as she could reasonably hope for, modest debts and inflation. There is universal recognition of the CSA as an independent state. The slaves were largely un-disturbed and un-radicalised by the war. A significant army is needed on the northern border and an Atlantic and coastal navy. International loans and state loan guarantees are available and the infrastructure is nowhere near as damaged and ill maintained as in OTL.

The USA on the other hand has, given that it has been fighting the British as well as the CSA has lost far more troops than the CSA possibly twice as many but still probably no more than in OTL. She has lost somewhat over a third of her territory but considerably less than half. Her debts are not as great as OTL but she has no easy way of paying them off due to loss of most of the goldfields and tariff incomes. Much domestic capital is tied-up in war bonds which are effectively junk bonds. They also have to pay off the reparations to the Confederacy. Inflation will have been excessive after a few months. There will be very high unemployment and as already stated domestic funds for investment will be very limited. International investment will be hard to come by especially from British investors and the USA may now be regarded as a significant risk. Larger armed forces need to be retained due to potential enemies in the south, north and west. Much of the transport and manufacturing infrastructure along the East coast will have been destroyed or significantly damaged.

Given the situation described above. Can you answer the following questions:

1) Are there any forces that would tend to break-up the USA further? What are they?
2) Are there any forces that would tend to break-up the CSA? What are they?
3) Why would the CSA abandon black chattel slavery in this situation? Are there any forces that would compel it to do so? When might it do so?
4) Would slave welfare become an issue in the CSA?
5) When, if ever, would the USA abandon slavery? Why? Would it seek to forcibly repatriate freedmen and women to Africa or elsewhere?
6) Is there another USA-CSA war? When? Over what, who wins it and why?
7) Is there another USA-Britain war? When? Over what, who wins it and why?
8) Is there a Californian-USA or Californian-CSA war? When? Over what, who wins it and why?
9) Is there a CSA-Spain war? When? Over what, who wins it and why?
10) Who buys Alaska, if anyone?
11) Would the USA still be able to become a power in the Pacific and Asia in this scenario? What happens in Hawaii, Korea and Japan. Does the USA still try to steal Guano Islands from other countries? Are they still involved in Blackbirding?
12) Could the CSA become a Pacific/Asian power? If so how and what happens?
13) Could California become a Pacific/Asian power? If so how and what happens?
14) Can the USA still become a superpower in the 20th Century?
15) Can the CSA become a superpower in the 20th Century?
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