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So lets say the Ethiopian civil war goes a lot worse than OTL and several higher ups in the Derg and military are killed including Mengistu Haile Mariam due to this the Soviets view backing the very unstable Ethiopia as a bad idea and stick with their Somali allies all this results in a far worse Ethiopian army and a failure to hold Dire Dawa and Harar against the Somali invaders. The Somalis capture almost all of the Ogaden and are able to repel the poorly armed and beset with infighting Ethiopian counterattack in January 1978 and force the Ethiopians to a Soviet negotiated peace.
So questions
1. How plausible is this?
2. What would the effects of this be on the politics of Ethiopia and Somalia?
3. What would the effects be on the wider world?