Somalia wins Ogaden War

Yeah, so what happens if Somalia acually wins the Ogaden War, and takes the contested region of Ethiopia. Possible POD would be lack of Soviet Support for Ethiopia.
 
Well, to keep Soviet support out of Ethiopia, you would need to have the Soviets decide in 1977 that Mengistu was a potential disaster and keep supporting the treaty of friendship with Siad Barre.

As a result, Ethiopia would have had to call an end to the war by mid-1978, when the Somalis capture Harari (which I suspect would be returned as part of the peace deal). The peace may have been de facto or de jure, but I suspect that after a decade or so, the Somali province of Ethiopia would be part of Somalia.

The success of the war would have allowed greater resources to be visited upon the clans in the north, but then it may also have meant that the newly-incorporated territory didn't get its fair share. Either way, Barre will have to find some agreement that brings the Isaaq into a power-sharing arrangement if he expects to keep the Majerteen in check. I don't see Britain allowing expansion into Kenya, so as the Cold War comes to an end, I see Somalia renouncing its claim to Kenyan territory and the US might decide to support Djibouti as its post on the African horn and use the Isaaq connection there to disrupt the Somali north.

Ethiopia probably wouldn't be in a position to do anything about the situation until the early 90's.
 

Susano

Banned
Yeah, so what happens if Somalia acually wins the Ogaden War, and takes the contested region of Ethiopia. Possible POD would be lack of Soviet Support for Ethiopia.

Teh Wets might then be in a bit emberassing situation - theyve helped Somalia, but they dont really want the borders to change in Africa. Could be that if Somalia becoem stoo successful, they let it drop. Going by the original WI, and hence having Somalia still winning would probably result in Somalia annexing Ogaden, but nobody regognicing it, so on maps youd have the old border and a dotted borders demarking the "area under Somali occupation"...
 
Top