Somalia invades Kenya in 1980, Would Kenya collapse along Ethnic lines

Say Somalia maintains Soviet supports and wins the Ogaden war and invades Kenya due to the Garissa massacre

Would Kenya collapse along Ethnic lines during a war with Somalia or after a defeat
 
Kenya had already suppressed the Somalis in the northeast of the country in the 60s, and Somalia was in serious trouble economically, politically, and militarily after the defeat in the Ogaden War. Kenya in 1980 was a lot more stable than 1980 Ethiopia, and even had a few ethnic Somalis in high positions in the country (one of whom helped suppress a coup in 1982).

I don't see Kenya losing, although the Somali-populated parts of Kenya might be a future headache for the country (moreso than just the spillover of the Somali Civil War).
 
Kenya had already suppressed the Somalis in the northeast of the country in the 60s, and Somalia was in serious trouble economically, politically, and militarily after the defeat in the Ogaden War.
Say they win the Ogaden war and maintain Soviet support like what I had in the OP, would Kenya still win ?
 
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1992/BHK.htm - Relevant article regarding the Somalia-Kenya issues.

Say they win the Ogaden war and maintain Soviet support like what I had in the OP, would Kenya still win ?

Kenyan president Daniel arap Moi was staunchly anti-communist and used opposition to communism as a key unifying feature of his rule, so he'd get a lot of Western aid. If Ethiopia gets its act together after their defeat in Ogaden, they might go for round two during this time.

The Kenyan military in the border regions was also pretty experienced fighting the Somalis by 1980, and economic conditions in Kenya (improving in the late 70s) combined with some local groups getting sick of the constant conflict was eroding secessionist support. The Kenyan-Somalia War would likely go down as another example of "don't over-extend your forces".
 
The British maintain a military presence in Kenya and have been since independence and even between 2007 and 2014 where the British Government had distanced itself from the current government of President Kenyatta due to his indictments by the UN due to post election violence - they were as today rotating 6 battalions a year through a 6 week training course.

So any Somalian attack would be met by British Trained Kenyan Military and fairly likely supported by British troops
 
Do they have any legal obligations to get involved ? I don’t see why Britain would get involved if they just have bases in Kenya?

Britain has retained security and trade treaties with Kenya for over 40 years so I would expect at the very least advisors, air support and equipment - it was an important part of British Cold War plan's to maintain a strong presence in the region

Especially if the Somalis are Soviet backed!
 
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Do they have any legal obligations to get involved ? I don’t see why Britain would get involved if they just have bases in Kenya?

Because the Kenyan leadership can point to the Somalis being communists trying to snuff out a free African nation and can also point to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan as further evidence that communism is once again on the move and needs to be stopped. Margaret Thatcher will definitely give some support (albeit perhaps not an outright Falklands-style war), and I'm sure Jimmy Carter will agree, since he was already pissed at the Soviets over Afghanistan and will demand the Soviets stop giving aid to Siad Barre.
 

Nick P

Donor
Do they have any legal obligations to get involved ? I don’t see why Britain would get involved if they just have bases in Kenya?

If you have spent all that money and time sending troops to learn how to fight in Africa, and have a commitment to holding back the Communists in Europe, and British business has a lot of money tied up in Kenya, why would you just throw your hands up and walk away?
Kenya is part of the Commonwealth and to let them get invaded would not look good. This is the same time that the Rhodesia/Zimbabwe question is finally being resolved.

At the very least the British Forces in Kenya are committed to defending part of the border while the Kenyan Army does the actual fighting. The Kenyan Army uses a lot of British kit so there's money to be made there selling weapons and ammo, plus the opportunity to see how the gear works in African combat.
 
During the invasion, Kenya would most certainly not collapse along ethnic lines, though the Somali minority might find itself even more ill-treated. But a foreign invasion is something that would see the country rally around the flag. Using the excuse of the invasion, Moi's security apparatus would have a much more room to crush what political dissent would remain.

After a defeat, for the sake of argument, we could see a lot more ethnic violence and the Moi regime would be severely politically damaged. Perhaps there would be more popular support for TTL's version of the attempted 1982 Air Force coup.
 
Would Kenya expel them after a war ?

That I'm not sure about. Maybe, if the invasion occurs, and is big but still defeated-the Somali government will then have shown that it does not have the power to back up it's threats in protection of the Somali minority, but at the same time has still shown itself to be a threat to Kenya's territorial integrity. Combined with seeing the Somalis as a 5th column, there may very well be ethnic cleansing.
 
They let Tanzania get invaded two years before

Both nations were Commonwealth nations, and communism isn't so blatantly involved. Plus Uganda wasn't so blatantly trying to annex a part of their neighbour like Somalia was (and if they've won the Ogaden War, they already have).

After a defeat, for the sake of argument, we could see a lot more ethnic violence and the Moi regime would be severely politically damaged. Perhaps there would be more popular support for TTL's version of the attempted 1982 Air Force coup.

Mahamoud Mohamed might be able to help the coup leaders out, even if he's booted out of the military during/after the war. He wouldn't become the president, but perhaps he could make the coup go much smoother. Hopefully link them up with some people who won't pass out from the g-forces of a jet aircraft like the guys they sent to make sure the pilots did their jobs.
 

Nick P

Donor
They let Tanzania get invaded two years before

This is the war that Tanzania was seen as having started because they supported groups that tried to kill Idi Amin and take over Uganda?
They got no help from other African countries afterwards even though they won.

Because it’s a small and worthless part of Kenya

Does it look like Somalia is only going for that part of Kenya, or might they be after a greater goal?
 
Both nations were Commonwealth nations, and communism isn't so blatantly involved.
Commonwealth members have no legal obligations to each other. Idi amin was Soviet backed and expelled a large number of British citizens and nationalized a lot of British assets in Uganda.

Plus Uganda wasn't so blatantly trying to annex a part of their neighbour
They did claim and tried to annex Kagera Region

Does it look like Somalia is only going for that part of Kenya, or might they be after a greater goal?
The former
 
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The British maintain a military presence in Kenya and have been since independence and even between 2007 and 2014 where the British Government had distanced itself from the current government of President Kenyatta due to his indictments by the UN due to post election violence - they were as today rotating 6 battalions a year through a 6 week training course.

So any Somalian attack would be met by British Trained Kenyan Military and fairly likely supported by British troops

This.

I would also expect the Brits to assist the Kenyans in giving the Somalis a good slapping, perhaps a British version of the Battle of Kolwezi.
 
Australian leader Robert hawke was a particular friend of Kenyatta and arap moi.
I know he wasn’t in power yet, but he might encourage Aussie and New Zealand aide to stable non racialist africa.
 
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