Somalia: Hand over bin Ladin

If lets say bin Ladin had choosen to stay in Somalia insteed of Afghanistan, and 911 still happened like it did. Would the US and the West have gone into Somalia in November of 2001? Full Force? Like the did in Afghanistan in OTL?
 
Less the 8 years earlier the US had suffered a humiliating defeat with Black Hawk Down. Would that in way have effected the US from going after bin Ladin on the ground in Somalia after 911?
 
Less the 8 years earlier the US had suffered a humiliating defeat with Black Hawk Down. Would that in way have effected the US from going after bin Ladin on the ground in Somalia after 911?

If by defeat you mean a 40:1 kill ratio and all VIP's captured followed by a major build up to finish the job if they didnt negotiate the release of the captured pilot which they did. Then yes they did.

It was the confusion of what the hell American troops were risking their lives for in that hellhole that caused the withdrawel.
 
It was the confusion of what the hell American troops were risking their lives for in that hellhole that caused the withdrawel.

And if Bin Laden is there the mission is a bit clearer. Also, it would be a rather easier fight. If they resist mission creep (ha!) I can see Coalition troops in and out rather quickly. Bin Laden doesn't have anywhere to run (no mountains to escape like Pakistan, not welcomed in Ethiopia!). Also, terrain and geography make logistics a lot easier - don't have to ship through 'friendly' Pakistan, less terrain concerns.
 
I wouldn't be too surprised if one of the Somali warlords turned in bin Laden for the bounty. The extra $25 min would give him an edge over the competition. I get the impression they're far more loyal to their clan than any abstract relgious cause... well, some of them any way.
 
Where does he stay? Taliban had control over most of Afghanistan so OBL could easily move through out the country. In somalia he'd have to have support of some clan or faction which, being at odds with others, would severly limit his options where he could hide.

Plus US could easily find another clan/faction to play role of Northern alliance and roll over others backed by US airpower and SOF.
 
Somalis are mercenary and would have sold his ass on the drop of a hat.
infact his presence would spark an intense war as different clan millitias fight over him so get the reward money.

im sure if the US was serious they could have got their hands on the dozen or so alqaeda members hiding out in somalia in the eary 2000's.
The isrealis know how to play the game, according to family member who
worked for one the warlords in moqadishu, he witnessed the arrival of some shady looking white men arab looking but not dressed as islamists.
it was ll hush hush, and they had a closed door session over a couple of days
feasted, chewed qad and had lively discussions.
money was exchanged and 10 days later 2 of the alqaeda members that where responsible for the attack on the isreali hotel in mombasa, and attaempted attack on an el al plane dissapeared after a fire fight.

he assumes the men where mossad, and that they forked over money in advance, and it took only 10 days to find the hideout of the men and hand them over to the isrealis.

The US had the chance to do the same with OBL in sudan, the sudan offered him on a serving tray, when the US didnt respond they allowed him to leave and go to afghanistan.

another interesting thing is that OBL discretly visited moqadishu in 1996 and left immedietly, i guess he didnt like what he found.

:D
 
Somalis are mercenary and would have sold his ass on the drop of a hat.
infact his presence would spark an intense war as different clan millitias fight over him so get the reward money.

im sure if the US was serious they could have got their hands on the dozen or so alqaeda members hiding out in somalia in the eary 2000's.
The isrealis know how to play the game, according to family member who
worked for one the warlords in moqadishu, he witnessed the arrival of some shady looking white men arab looking but not dressed as islamists.
it was ll hush hush, and they had a closed door session over a couple of days
feasted, chewed qad and had lively discussions.
money was exchanged and 10 days later 2 of the alqaeda members that where responsible for the attack on the isreali hotel in mombasa, and attaempted attack on an el al plane dissapeared after a fire fight.

he assumes the men where mossad, and that they forked over money in advance, and it took only 10 days to find the hideout of the men and hand them over to the isrealis.

The US had the chance to do the same with OBL in sudan, the sudan offered him on a serving tray, when the US didnt respond they allowed him to leave and go to afghanistan.

another interesting thing is that OBL discretly visited moqadishu in 1996 and left immedietly, i guess he didnt like what he found.

:D

Interestingly enough, if OBL stays in Somalia, he may very well be killed back in 1996 by Israel. IIRC, after the attemp on Mubarak in Ethiopia, Israel decided that OBL, who had a connection to the attack, is a risk to the Egyptian-Israeli peace (if Mubarak had died at the time, it was feared that the instability could have ended the peace), and tasked The Mossad with killing him. A few months later he left Sudan to Afghanistan, and the plan was canceled. If he stays in Somalia, that is still too close for comfort.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
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A invasion of Somalia would be chaotic. In the early 00s Somalis was even more Balkanized than it's now, and it would have been impossible to know who the enemies were and who were allies.
 
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