Japhy
Banned
First thing first, this is far more a literary question then a hard AH thing. Honestly I don't see any point in the Second World War where Australia is plausibly going to be throwing in the towel once the Pacific War Starts. And generally I'd be one of those people jumping right to the front yelling about how its not going to happen. So bare with me.
From a literary fiction perspective let us toss out an incredibly rough setting: Two American Carriers being sunk at Coral Sea to no Japanese CV losses, Port Moresby and the rest of Australian New Guinea has fallen to the Japanese, pressure on Darwin is upped, submarine, bomber and potentially, surface ship bombardments and SNLF quick raids mount, the Japanese hold on the Lower Solomons is entrenched and convoy supplies and American troops to Australia is effectively off the table. As can happen with any country, mounting pressure eventually leads to portions of the political class to blink, and at least a portion of the general population to as well. (I know this is the sort of stuff I generally can't stand but even a vague setting I feel is necessary.)
Who rises to the top and cuts the deal with Tokyo? Presumably collaboration will be an effective non-starter, being as the Japanese cannot possibly occupy the country, so this could be a long term cease fire or a treaty or whatever. The theoretical new leadership at the very least needs to be the sort to avoid restarting the war at the drop of a hat.
It seems obvious to me that John Curtain is not going to do it, but beyond that I have such a limited understanding of Australian politics that I wouldn't know up from down. IIRC there was a story many years ago where in the Germans set up a dictatorship under Stanley Bruce but I cant comment on how likely that is. So any theoreticals are welcome.
From a literary fiction perspective let us toss out an incredibly rough setting: Two American Carriers being sunk at Coral Sea to no Japanese CV losses, Port Moresby and the rest of Australian New Guinea has fallen to the Japanese, pressure on Darwin is upped, submarine, bomber and potentially, surface ship bombardments and SNLF quick raids mount, the Japanese hold on the Lower Solomons is entrenched and convoy supplies and American troops to Australia is effectively off the table. As can happen with any country, mounting pressure eventually leads to portions of the political class to blink, and at least a portion of the general population to as well. (I know this is the sort of stuff I generally can't stand but even a vague setting I feel is necessary.)
Who rises to the top and cuts the deal with Tokyo? Presumably collaboration will be an effective non-starter, being as the Japanese cannot possibly occupy the country, so this could be a long term cease fire or a treaty or whatever. The theoretical new leadership at the very least needs to be the sort to avoid restarting the war at the drop of a hat.
It seems obvious to me that John Curtain is not going to do it, but beyond that I have such a limited understanding of Australian politics that I wouldn't know up from down. IIRC there was a story many years ago where in the Germans set up a dictatorship under Stanley Bruce but I cant comment on how likely that is. So any theoreticals are welcome.