Socialist Iran after 1979 Revolution?

whitecrow

Banned
I read on this site that after the overthrowing of the Iranian Shah in 1979 the socialist faction stood a good chance of gaining power until they were outmaneuvered by Khomeini’s Islamic faction. So what would happen if socialists/communists took power instead of Khomeini? Would Iran ally with U.S.S.R.? Would they seek help from China? What would be their relations with Israel?

Would Saddam still attack Iran? How would U.S.S.R. react if that were to happen? Would U.S. put all their chips behind Saddam?

What would happen to Iran after the fall of the Eastern block?

And last but not least – what kind of socialist/communist regime would develop in Iran?
 
There probably would have been a pro-Chinese faction and a pro-Soviet faction, and I'm reasonably certain the pro-Soviet faction would have been dominant.

The hostage crisis probably wouldn't have happened. The U.S. and Iran will still suffer a major break in relations, but they'll at least remain on speaking terms.

Whether or not the Iranian Communists are successful depends on their relationship with the Islamists. If they get along well, the regime has a good chance of whethering the collapse of the Eastern Bloc (which yes, will still be inevitable in this TL, even if the Soviets have a base in the Gulf: at most it will delay the collapse of the USSR by a year or two - it might even accelerate it by making the U.S. nervous and by antagonizing the Arabs even more) and still being around. If the Communists get along poorly with the Islamists, Iran will become another Afghanistan, with everything that entails.
 
There probably would have been a pro-Chinese faction and a pro-Soviet faction, and I'm reasonably certain the pro-Soviet faction would have been dominant.

The hostage crisis probably wouldn't have happened. The U.S. and Iran will still suffer a major break in relations, but they'll at least remain on speaking terms.

Whether or not the Iranian Communists are successful depends on their relationship with the Islamists. If they get along well, the regime has a good chance of whethering the collapse of the Eastern Bloc (which yes, will still be inevitable in this TL, even if the Soviets have a base in the Gulf: at most it will delay the collapse of the USSR by a year or two - it might even accelerate it by making the U.S. nervous and by antagonizing the Arabs even more) and still being around. If the Communists get along poorly with the Islamists, Iran will become another Afghanistan, with everything that entails.

They'll suffer more than a little break in relations. Imperial Iran was America's closest regional ally, next to Israel and Turkey. An Iran that swings into the Soviet column will lead to huge tensions between the USA and USSR, and the Americans will undoubtedly try to overthrow the government there. A Soviet-leaning Iran gives the Soviet Union direct access to the Persian Gulf, which is going to make the Americans go batshit. My guess is that the American response will be to patch up relations with Iraq as well as begin arming all the pro-American Gulf states heavily. I wouldn't rule out American support for an Islamist government-in-exile, which will be made up of whatever Islamists survive the inevitably Communist purges and escape the country.

After the collapse of the USSR (if the Cold War doesn't end in the Flame Deluge), Iran would likely follow the pattern of post-Soviet Central Asia, with a highly corrupt ex-Communist ruling elite playing Islamists, secular liberals, and the army off each other. They might try to extend their influence into Afghanistan, the Caucasus, and the Middle East, but they'll be chastised and beaten back by the Americans. Likely though, the United States will eventually come to some sort of understanding with Iran, basically promising diplomatic ties and (likely Israeli) weapon sales in exchange for keeping quiet and selling oil.
 
Granted, I'm not a buff on Iranian history as much as I probably should be, but what are the chances of a socialist "Islamic republic" ala Libya? Meaning some sort of deal between Khomeini's faction and an anti-Soviet socialist faction (perhaps a pro-China one?).
 
Wouldn't Iranian socialists/communists be more likely more likely to align with the religious-populist left (Mujahedin e Khalq) than with Khomeini's clerical faction?
IE state socialism with theocratic elements rather than OTL's republican theocracy with leftist touches or rhetoric.
 
There probably would have been a pro-Chinese faction and a pro-Soviet faction, and I'm reasonably certain the pro-Soviet faction would have been dominant.

It depends. If the Iranians still distrust Russia due to nationalist sentiments, since Russia weakened Persia significantly. With more nationalist sentiments in Iran, they might be more pro-Chinese. But on the other hand, it would be easier for the USSR to supply Iranian communists than China.
 
Granted, I'm not a buff on Iranian history as much as I probably should be, but what are the chances of a socialist "Islamic republic" ala Libya? Meaning some sort of deal between Khomeini's faction and an anti-Soviet socialist faction (perhaps a pro-China one?).

In the long term, that's the Iranian Communist regime's best hope for survival ITTL, but the contradictions inherent in that will threaten to tear the state apart. Gaddafi's was really a personalistic dictatorship, and it became more and more obvious as time went on.

Hyperbolus said:
Wouldn't Iranian socialists/communists be more likely more likely to align with the religious-populist left (Mujahedin e Khalq) than with Khomeini's clerical faction?

That's sort of what happened in OTL, but the Islamists were too strong, and Khomeini was able to purge almost all the leftists in 1980-1981.
 
That's sort of what happened in OTL, but the Islamists were too strong, and Khomeini was able to purge almost all the leftists in 1980-1981.

But not with out a fight. Leftist factions managed to assasinate several leading Khomeinists, the most famous being a senior pro Khomeini mullah killed by a bomb concealed in a mosque podium. They also carried out terror bombings including one (at a hotel?) which killed scores of pro Khomeini activists.
There probably would have been a pro-Chinese faction and a pro-Soviet faction, and I'm reasonably certain the pro-Soviet faction would have been dominant.
I think it was as well. The leading communist party "Masses" was pro Moscow in ideaology and some, (or many?) of its senior leaders had been trained in the USSR.
 
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