So what would have it taken for it to be possible for the Axis to win militarywise?

The Germans should try to get on a total war footing BEFORE 1944.

You have to remember that Germany had a piss-poor economy. It was completely fucked, and all Hitler did was apply some temporary band-aids. Getting on a total war footing early on could easily wreck its economy even further.
 
The Germans should try to get on a total war footing BEFORE 1944.

For all practical purposes they did. Even before war started Gemrany was focusing on armaments on the expense of everything else. Industry was mobilized to almost total levels. There was waste sure, but that continued even after 1944.
 
Ignoring the fact that Germany had no spare room for this increased output of trucks for military (what isn't built so they can be?) nor could it take them from civilian sector without causing serious disruption in moving of goods (as happened with railroad) this opens another problem. Logistics. Even in late July 1941 Germany had difficulties supplying their forces to proper levels, forcing pauses till supplies could be brough forward to sustain further advances (this became even more problematic during 1942 offensive but I digress). With additional numbers of trucks they have to be supplied with fuel and spares. While trucks allow goods to be moved further faster they require goods themselves (burning fuel to transport fuel, stressing trucks to move spares....) which in turn increases logistical strains even further. And that's assuming Germany has enough fuel to supply this expanded fleet.

Germany could concentrate supplies for one sector, likely AGC, depriving rest, forcing those on defensive. This in turn exposes their flanks, as happened in 1942.

As I said, Overy's thesis is on the possibilities, not a realistic look as to the how it would actually happen. Which is the grave weakness of his thesis, as by the time the Germans are aware of the necessity for a war economy they'll already be facing severe military reverses.

And Tooze explains that Germans had troubles integrating occupied industrial potential into German economy. In the end the biggest asset was workforce forced to work in Germany, either in industry (still with lower effeciency than German workforce but better than none) or agriculture (which suffered from lack of workforce due to draft and not achieving full potential anyway)

The major handicap and strength of German war efforts was Nazi ideology. German soldiers were as brutal about losses as Soviets were and as willing to take risks as Soviets were, however the very nature of their successes blinds them to what ultimately helps them. And of course by the time they actually need it it's too late for them.

The Germans should try to get on a total war footing BEFORE 1944.

See above.
 
For all practical purposes they did. Even before war started Gemrany was focusing on armaments on the expense of everything else. Industry was mobilized to almost total levels. There was waste sure, but that continued even after 1944.

Industry was mobilized to a great extent, but not, say, compared to the Soviets until the very end (in proportion). And they didn't really start trying until 1943.
 
Yeah, an Axis military victory is so implausible, without the aid of a few ASBs making Hitler more competent, Mussolini not a joke, and Japan not angering the USA.

The Axis held the idiot ball way too many times.
 
An Axis victory is possible at least in Europe. A very limited Axis victory is possible in Asia but harder to pull off.

In Europe the US HAS to be kept out of the war. Without that nothing will help the Nazi's.
The second thing that must happen is that Hitler accepts or provides a chance for a USSR surrender. A few times Stalin put out feelers for a peace treaty were the core of the USSR survived but a lot of the periphery under Nazi control was surrendered. If Hitler had accepted this it would lead to an Axis victory in Europe.
The fallout of this peace would leave the USSR suffering a lot of political chaos, and weaken it in the short term pretty severely. This would give the Nazi's a chance to move troops to face the British and fortify their new lands. Without the US and the USSR out of the war the British might sign an armistice.
So Germany would be facing a hostile British, wary US, and a weakened but rebuilding USSR, but they'd have most of Europe under their control and a chance to build up.

In Asia If Japan took French-Indonesia and made a peace treaty with China which left them with much of the conquered territory they could declare a win. The problem is making them declare peace with China.
The militarists in the Japanese government were too stubborn to quit, and if they didn't quit international pressure would lead to war.
So the entire ruling class in Japan would need to be changed to allow a limited victory. Not ASB but very hard to pull off.
 
for the Nazi's to win, firstly you'd need to be shot of Hitler and Goerring, Speer was pretty effective but only really a Nazi as it suited his ambition quite a pragmatic and selfish man...
 
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