So, how would you have prevented the WWI if you were Kaizer/Tsar/...?

As the Kaiser I'd just not give the blank check to Austria-Hungary, avoid the yacht cruise, and demand that Austria-Hungary give full credence to negotiations with its allies to handle that issue. This combination undoes WWI, problem solved.
 
I think if the war were to be stopped it had to be stopped with the Tsar. If Nicholas II had taken a realistic look at the situation and simply not intervened in what was a local Austro-Hungarian/Serbian affair the whole chain of alliances that led to World War I would not have been triggered.

I keep wondering why Nicholas II did intervene in the first place. Russia had lost a war with Japan 7 years before and was still recovering. There was revolutionary fervor in the air. Keeping Russia out of the war and acting as a peace maker between the Austrians and the Serbs would have been looked at with great favor by both the international community and among his own people.

Geon

Russia intervened because of the 1908 Crisis when Austria-Hungary had unilaterally annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina and forced Russia to back down instead of supporting his ally. To the Russians 1914 seemed a good chance to revenge that particular humiliation, unfortunately WWI would prove to be damn near impossible for Russia to get out of once it got in, but to be fair in 1914, how much one could tell that at the time is not entirely clear.
 
Mein Gott! I'm the Kaiser of the German Reich and I've got to avoid blundering into war. Obviously, the first thing I will do is stay away from the Balkans. If the Austrians want to have a crack at Serbia because of the death of their bloody idiot of an Archduke in Sarajevo who managed to get lost and ended up dead as a result then I'm all for it but they can expect no more than a few divisions so they can't accuse me of not being a good ally and sport and all that stuff.

I'll make sure the German military is mobilised as a precaution in case the French or the Russians decide to do something stupid like attack but there's going to be no German boots on foreign soil during my watch. Sure, I'd like to have a few ports on the English Channel but marching over Belgium would only annoy the British who seem to put so much value on useless bits of paper guaranteeing neutrality.

Sure, there will be yet another war in the Balkans and some redrawing of borders but it's been a fact of life for so long now that it's getting to be rather tiresome. Better to have a bit of bother over Serbia than to have a European war.

If the Russians have a crack at the Austro-Hungarian Empire I'll tell Charles II (is that the dear chap's name in Vienna?) to simply get out of Serbia and do a deal with Russia involving some minor territorial exchanges to keep everybody happy.
 
Dear Kaiser, your cousin Nikolai has ordered the mobilisation in response to your own partial one. Moltke screams around to issue the complete mobilization order or entire war plan is ruined if Russians or French complete mobilization and oh yeah, French also mobilize. Moltke screams and almost collapses. Dear chap in Vienna is dissapointed as he is Franz Josef. Congrats. You got dragged into war :D
 

BlondieBC

Banned
As the King, I'd strongly suggest(*) to my government that they make Britain's position clear and explicit to the other governments involved, especially Germany:

  1. Britain's security guarantee for Belgium is absolute. Any attack on Belgium is a declaration of war on Britain.
  2. Britain regards the Entente as creating a moral obligation to support France against foreign aggression.
IOTL, Britain was extremely vague about these points, which the German government interpreted as an indication that Britain did not intent to actually fight unless directly threatened: the Entente was not a formal binding military alliance (there was a formal alliance between France and Russia, but not between Britain and either country), and the 1839 Treaty of London guaranteeing Belgian neutrality was not taken seriously by Germany. It's likely Germany would have been at least a bit more restrained in escalating the situation had they understood Britain was actually willing to go to war.


In hindsight (although nearly ASB without hindsight), it also might have been beneficial to intentionally leak British naval warplans to Germany. German plans assumed Britain would maintain a close blockade, patrolling the Grand Fleet just off the German coast to keep the High Seas Fleet bottled up in port, which would expose them to minefields, submarine attacks, and torpedo boat raids to whittle down the GF until the HSF had numerical parity or better. But Britain had abandoned plans for a close blockade some time before, foreseeing the obvious German response, and instead planned a distant blockade (using destroyers to intercept merchant ships in the Channel and the North Sea and keeping the main force of the GF in port ready to intercept the HSF if they sallied in enough strength to threaten the blockade patrols or raid the British coast).

Another think Britain might have been able to do would be to sponsor a formal conference, at least between Germany, Austria, and Russia. Even if Austria remained dead set on full acceptance of their ultimatum to Serbia, Russia's interests in Serbia weren't entirely irreconcilable with Austrian aims. I seem to recall reading that Russia was willing to accept temporary Austrian occupation of Serbia in order to compel full acceptance of the terms of the ultimatum, provided the occupation would be strictly temporary and Serbia would remain independent afterwards. I also seem to recall reading a claim that Austria and Russia had been close to a deal to this effect when Germany panicked over the Russian mobilization orders and declared war. If these claims (or even just the former) were accurate, then a formal peace conference might be able to improve lines of communication enough to get a deal done.


(*) My actual political power is even more limited than the Kaiser: he has broad powers to fire and replace his Chancellor and cabinet ministers, whereas I'm bound by tradition (and Parliament's willingness to use the power of the purse to enforce the traditional rules) to only appoint ministers in accordance with the wishes of the dominant party/coalition in Parliament.


Yes, the UK should have made her position crystal clear, because deterrence only works if the other side expects you to fight. But, there is a small problem with this, the government was pretending it was not in alliance with France, and leaking this would cause a political storm. Without hindsight, it is not clear that 1914 would lead to war instead of any one of a half dozen previous crises. And if leaked earlier, say 1908, then Germany policy is changed, Germany may have a bigger military, etc. Also, by waiting to the last minute, Germany may still attack because it is hard to change war plans at the last minute.

Leaking Naval war plans is unlikely to stop the war, but it does carry disadvantages.

1) It is leaked before any act of aggression by Germany. The USA will be upset, and USA papers will immediately start condemn the UK. Wilson may start condemning the UK publicly before the war. The USA entering the war with the mindset that the UK, not Germany is the aggressor and international law breaker is huge.
2) Germany might adjust her war plans.
3) If the war is adverted, Germany now has the UK naval war plans to adjust naval building plans and strategies.
4) Announcing that the UK will not follow international law gives Germany a golden opening to work on a "Freedom of the Seas" treaty with the USA.
5) And likely, as in the first idea listed, this will be leaked not in 1914, but in a previous year.

Formal conference: Hard to be mediator, and not be neutral. The conference has to be called as soon as the assassination, not after the ultimatum. To get Germany and A-H to attend would require an condemnation of the killing, and likely require the UK to have suggested "punishment" for Serbia. The UK proposal is likely to be either offensive to Russia, A-H, or both.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I'll make sure the German military is mobilised as a precaution in case the French or the Russians decide to do something stupid like attack but there's going to be no German boots on foreign soil during my watch. Sure, I'd like to have a few ports on the English Channel but marching over Belgium would only annoy the British who seem to put so much value on useless bits of paper guaranteeing neutrality.

Tip of Day: Mobilization of Germany will trigger and immediate mobilization of Russia and France, the only question is how many hours or days it takes the Russian and French government to detect the mobilization of the Germans. Also, on about the 49th hour, if memory serves me, Luxembourg is invaded, automatically, without orders from the Kaiser.

While the war may turnout better for the CP, you have just started a war of aggression. I am curious on what day you would have order mobilization?
 
Top