After trying to sort feasibility of a Ottoman win in the first Balkans war, I am now very happy not only Feasible but probable with Change in Tactics and Strategic priorities taking over.
Allot of what is Written here to start with is noted in
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=141392
Within the Ottoman Leadership there is Conflicting views of on strategy and the fever of Tactical Offensives and the need for defence before reserves can bring numbers to beer on the battlefield , And a better game plan of what is wanted to be achieved and how to get it. Allot of this is to do with the Youth and inexperience of Combat leaders up to Army group level.
PoD Field Marshal Colmar von der Goltz Lately Retired from Active service in the German Army 1911 is asked to go back to the Ottoman Empire as part of a German lead Commission .The Field Marshal he had served for 12 Years as an advisor and was much respected he had been Given Title of Mushir (Field Marshal) before leaving the Empire in 1896
The request for von der Goltz Retired was in response to the Growing tensions with the Balkan states and simply asked to review at first the Defensive positions and dispositions of the Ottoman defences in Rumelia.
To understand the standing of this prolific Writer and Military expert that will play such an important role in TTL a run down of his experience after leaving the Ottoman Empire in 1896 were he was already well respected.
1896- 1898 Commander of the 5h Infantry Division
1898-1900 Head Inspector of Engineer and Pioneer Corps and inspector of fortifications
1900-1902 Unknown
1902-1907 Commander of 1st Army Corps
1907 Inspector General of the newly created 6th Army
Retires from Active Service Mid 1911
(OTL would become an advisor and Combat commander in Ottoman Empire after period in 1914-1915 as Military Governor of occupied Belgium)
With some sense urgency von der Goltz arrives in Istanbul Oct 29th 1911 one Month after the start of the Italo-Turkish war being fought in Libya.
One of the conflicts that will happen is vdG’s Ideas and Strategy conflict so much with that of the Ottoman Chief of staff Nazim Pasha. Having been a student if Ferdinand Foch an instructor at a French Staff College, was enamoured to the French Offensive Doctrine.
As expected with an active front and a nation involved in Fighting Frustrated by the inability of reinforcing of Libya due to the Naval Dominance of the Italian Navy von der Goltz has his hands fill Directing attentions to what would be the reason for him coming,
Allot of what befell the Ottomans OTL was a direct consequence of this poor Doctrine especially unsuited to the Balkan region full of Good defensive chock points.
Final compromise and reason is found in a Middle ground between the Old Solder vdG’s and Nazim, Offensive does has it’s place, But only when at least Parity in force is met and preferably the idea of getting local superiority before offensives. And the knowledge that Defensive Positions have an important place, what does sit well with the Aggressive Nazim is the Idea of Counter attack after a well executed defence.
One of the early things noted by von der Goltz was the lack of information regards possible Dispositions of what Ottoman troops would face in the Balkans at this early stage it was not even noted how closely the Balkan League was to agreements.
Several organizational changes were half way through Implementation the Ottomans Armies had been changing Divisional Structure and Command in these new organisations was not as yet sorted.
Weak points for the Ottomans were a weak Carder of NCOs’ partly related to demographics. Poor levels of literacy and general poor state of the Ottoman economy
This leading to Troops being used more effectively defensively.
At the behest of von der Goltz a experiment was done to see how fast one Corp of the Army could be raised from Peacetime standing to Full mobilization as expected by von der Goltz the Hierarchy of the Ottoman Army was shocked as they realised the Best expectations were so very wide off the mark.
The Weapons and Logistics of the Ottoman army could only be improved with Time and money, at this stage amount of time before the Army was needed was unknown, and more money was hardly possible with the state of the Ottoman economy.
Doing what he could with the resources at hand von der Goltz requests and gets aid from home of 70 Officers and 60 Senior NCOs’ to help with retraining and streamlining of the Ottoman Army Mostly at the Command and Staff level first. But you can only do so much in a year.
The general competence of the Ottoman staff was not matched by Numbers so at the request of vdG requests and gets aid from home of 70 Officers and 60 Senior NCOs’ to help with retraining and streamlining of the Ottoman Army Mostly at the Command and Staff level first spreading the load and despite language difficulties things are improved. But you can only do so much in a year and that is the time they have.
Now how to find out what these small upstart nations might be up too. Now time for the Good Field Marshal to visit the state of Ottoman Fortifications in the Uniform of an Ottoman Mushir.
One naval change will be an understanding of the current naval position especially related to the Greeks, and after the Greek getting the Armoured Cruiser Georgios Averof that arrived in Greece September 1, 1911 The Ottomans had major concerns regarding this Vessel and worried that it's timeframe for the Purchas of Dreadnaughts would leave them Vulnerable for too long, After commission were sent out regarding possible replacements. The Prospects of Getting the ships Reshadiye and Mahmud Resad V.
With limited time and Money and some good diplomacy asking how the British could upset the Balance of power in the Western Med. Negotiations start with the prospect of the purchase of Ships.
With the premise that navy commissions where also in Germany and the U.S looking at vessels and wanting to not loss faith with there old ally, Negotiations continues. After only 2 Months of Negotiation 2 vessels are decided on, these being the British Battleships of the Swiftsure Class. Negotiations happen between December 1911 and January 12
There are 2 points of the British will make, they sagest that although these 2 vessels can cause problems with the Italians they are in no position to beat the Italians, But will address the balance for now.
After the British step in a conference is held regarding Peace talks between the Ottomans and the Italian’s. Though no armistice is signed a Ceasefire is agreed to. And no further adventures by the Italians is agreed, these negotiations will continue right up till the start of the Balkan War that will explode on the scene still in Oct 1912.
After the ceasefire is agreed to the British and unknown to the Italian’s the 2 ships for a cost of £1,800,000 less than the British Navy had bought these 2 to prevent the risk of Russians buying them Dec 1903, After giving The Royal navy good service, the 2 vessels are in Alexandria under British Flags as part of the Mediterranean fleet. Too overly rushed together crews from the Ottoman navy, These met these Powerful 2 Vessels Carrying ( there new untrained crews March 15th, )
The rush to get Crews to these ships will cause a few red faces as the Mahmud Resad V. ( Ex Swiftsure ) is towed in by its Sister Sultan Osman I.( Ex Triumph ) due to Boiler problems from inexperience . As steep learning curve is ahead of the crews. Ships arrive Istanbul 20th April.
Negotiations are also underway regarding lighter ships also from the British.
All parties other than the Greeks and Italian happy as these vessels now pose a threat to Italian operations in Libya and the planning of operations by the Greeks. These 2 vessels suddenly change the Naval Balance in the Balkans. The British have been seen as coming through for there old Friends. And the Greeks now furious and scared as they Ottomans have just leaped ahead in the Naval race with them. Close relations with the Royal Navy will continue for the Ottoman Navy Balanced by the even Closer Relationship the Ottoman Army and the Germans.
Oddly enough 2 ships Ordered for a South American nation of Chile and cancelled after financial restraints. These 2 ships had caused the British some problems as not designed from start for the British navy yet Finished with as much British standard equipment as possible after being laid down. With a main Armament of 2x2 10” guns and powerful secondary armament of 7.5” far from standard armament of British Pre-Dreadnaughts Faster and Lighter armed than the rest of British Vessels, would suddenly find them selves causing Political problems.
The British in part seeing that the Germans are gaining influence in part due to vdG decide importantly a change in Strategy, Asking also if British Army can be of assistance, in hopes of finding out how close the relations between Germany and The Ottoman empire is getting.
As a side consequence of the trust now put in the Ottomans ( more wanting to win favour ) one British newspaper Columnist J.D. Bourchier ( as he did OTL, possibly part of the British intelligence service ) does not meet with Greek Prim Minister Eleftherios Pilio to start negotiations regarding Joining the Balkan league. Instead Greece will stand this war out. Instead some information will be let slip to the Ottomans the British understanding of what is happening within the Balkan league. J.D. Bourchier is very well connected in Sofia at the highest levels.
By August the Ottomans know something is happening and that they will probably be facing the combined forces of the Bulgarians, Serbia and Montenegro sometime in the near future.