Driftless
Donor
No Louisiana Purchase means the USA stops at the Mississippi from Minnesota to perhaps Vicksburg, MS. There is no US Gulf Coast as the acquisition of Florida, which included the Gulf Coast of Alabama and over to where Louisiana (including parts of Mississippi) probably doesn't happen. With the "hard border" (the Mississippi river) between French territory and the USA more or less stopping north of OTL's Minneapolis/St Paul you could see some extension of the USA including perhaps some slice of southern Canadian prairies but very likely only a small chunk of Northern Minnesota beyond the headwaters Mississippi is part of the USA.
This USA is still a large country with significant agricultural potential and natural resources, if it gets Florida and the Alabama Gulf Coast so much the better. I expect west of the Mississippi you'll get some mix of Spanish derived entities, French derived, British, and possibly even Russian. All this being said there is no reason that this USA essentially the east of the Mississippi OTL USA won't survive.
In the summer of 1814 a relatively small British and Indian allies force was in military control of the upper Mississippi down to the Illinois border area. Not many men, but they held several key points along the river. Those British gains got set aside following the end of the war; but it could have become an issue, I suppose.
The British garrison at Prairie du Chien also fought off another attack by Major Zachary Taylor. In this distant theatre, the British retained the upper hand until the end of the war, through the allegiance of several indigenous tribes that received British gifts and arms, enabling them to take control of parts of what is now Michigan and Illinois, as well as the whole of modern Wisconsin.[136] In 1814 U.S. troops retreating from the Battle of Credit Island on the upper Mississippi attempted to make a stand at Fort Johnson, but the fort was soon abandoned, along with most of the upper Mississippi valley.[137]
After the U.S. was pushed out of the Upper Mississippi region, they held on to eastern Missouri and the St. Louis area. Two notable battles fought against the Sauk were the Battle of Cote Sans Dessein, in April 1815, at the mouth of the Osage River in the Missouri Territory, and the Battle of the Sink Hole, in May 1815, near Fort Cap au Gris.[138]
At the conclusion of peace, Mackinac and other captured territory was returned to the United States. At the end of the war, some British officers and Canadians objected to handing back Prairie du Chien and especially Mackinac under the terms of the Treaty of Ghent. However, the Americans retained the captured post at Fort Malden, near Amherstburg, until the British complied with the treaty.[139]
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