Smallest Russia

Well, giving that Russia appeared as a quite large entity at first, it's going to require massive screwing.

The best series of PoD would be during the XIIIth and its aftermath.

- Teutonic victory in 1242. While it wouldn't lead, by no means, to a German conquest of Russia, you may end with the establishment of a germano-russian nobility akin to germano-baltic's in the region of Pskov and east of Peipus Lake along the Baltic. I don't see it living on forever, but it may have enough of a cultural impact to make it wholly distinct from Russia.
On the same line of ideas, stronger Scandinavian presence in the region could only help.

- Survival of Tatar entities in Siberia. That alone would be an enormous part of your request. It's going to be harder tough, with an unified Russia (and that's going to happen sooner or later after Mongol hegemony withdrawal) and the structural gap (use of gunpowder, for instance). But that's going to be the key there.

-Stronger Ottoman Empire in Caucasus and in Black Sea. Without access to these regions, *Russia would certainly have an harder time expanding elsewhere, in front of Turkish threat (and possibly "benevolent" Polish-Lithuanian help as well)
 
A Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth which manages to reform and turns into a western type autocratic monarchy would certainly do wonder too. I'd say that with Tatars in the east, Ottomans in the south and Polish in the West Russia would be kept quite small.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
If Ukraine managed to develop identity as separate people, other might succeed too. Independent Novgorod Rus ? Volga Delta Rus ? Moscow dominance that enabled Russian Orthodox Church and Russia identity as people. several different orthodox Church would enable Russia breakup.
 
I don't think Russian unification was inevitable. Nerf Moscow a bit and you get quite a few independent Russian principalities, none of which will have the strength to push east.
 
- Survival of Tatar entities in Siberia. That alone would be an enormous part of your request. It's going to be harder tough, with an unified Russia (and that's going to happen sooner or later after Mongol hegemony withdrawal)

Unified tatars could have countered a unified Russia.
 
I'd say if you had a strong Novgorod and a strong Kiev simultanerously, that would prevent Moscow from growing. Without the Russias being effectively unified, you'd then have a weaker drive east, which might allow for a combination of tatars, Chinese, and Japanese conquests/colonisations in the east.
 
By the way, even Muscovy alone is a fairly big tract of land, although certainly very small if compared to OTL's Russia (and a fair part of it pretty sparsely populated).
 
With POD when? With early enough one it is possible to not have a slavic state in the Eastern European plain.

With POD after 13th century having really small Russia is extremely tricky.
First of all a united state in the former Great Princedom of Vladimir in the place of OTL Great Princedom of Moscow is almost inevitable as in general mind it is one state, just temporally disunited. Of course other princedoms than Muscovy can manage such unification – Tver, Yaroslavl, Vladimir itself or even Nizhny Novgorod. But by 15th century the territory is almost inevitably united.



Such a state is destined to takeover Novgorod. Novgorod is heavily dependent on the grain imported from the territory of OTL Muscovy and has population more than 5 times less. Moreover a large part of Novgorodian population is really tired of the anarchy of the state. The natural candidate for such firm hand is the ATL “Muscovy”. The only thing that is possible in my opinion is more gradual integration of Novgorod with some remaining autonomy, local customs, local dialect that all completely vanished in OTL.


Similarly Kazan is simply too far from God and too near to Russia to not be conquered(actually in OTL Russia had a pretty bad luck with Kazan – several vassal Khans were overthrown and in 1530 two Russian commanders were at the open gates of Kazan but argued for several hours who should enter first until the gates closed ). Even if by some miracle Kazan holds until 17th century it will not really slow down Russian advance to Siberia – the main communications to that were used before 18th centuries are via rivers Vychegda, Pechora and Northern Kama all of what were controlled by Muscovy and Novgorod by 15th centuries and via sea. And in Siberia there was no force before China that could contest even small Russian forces. So the only possible change in the east is more favorable for China border in the far East(the maximum possible extend of China in Siberia is controlling entire Amur Basin like they claimed in 17th century)



Taking Astrakhan and OTL Kuban is also extremely probable but can be averted if Ottoman Empire is stronger than OTL. Crimean Khanate can remain a vassal of Ottoman Empire or be conquered by PLC.


Now let’s talk about Lithuanian factor(as no Commonwealth existed before second half of 16th century and by that time Russian state is too strong to be completely nerfed ). Surely Lithuanian princes are capable of taking OTL Muscovy and Novgorod given enough effort and luck. But if they manage this the Russians in there state would be such a majority that this state will become plain old Russia (although it can be called Lithuania) that is possible slightly less centralized than OTL Russia, that is slightly more focused on west and that has capital in Vilno, Polotsk(the most populous and economically developed city of the Great Princedom of Lithuania) or Kiev(unlikely as by 15th century it has only a few thousand people). Such a state will be even bigger than OTL Russia(as Siberia will become conquered for the reasons I described above) as all the territories that Russia desired up until 18th century will be a part of this state from at least 15th-16th centuries and this ATL Russia will be almost twice more populous.



So in my opinion without ASB the smallest possible Russia with POD after 13th century is still very big state. It still controls OTL European Russia (possibly without access to the Baltic sea) east of Smolensk (that can actually be controlled by PLC) and north of OTL Volgograd (this territory is close enough to Russia and far enough from any other non-nomad state). Russia controls Ural Mountains an entire Siberia but does not control the Amur Basin.
 
Hmmm, I wouldn't 100% agree with you there, poster above. Whilst Lithuania's expansion would make a greater proportion of it Russian, IIRC despite its name, the GDL was a Byelorussian-dominated state. Given that there is no meaningful distinction in this period between Russians and Byelorussians (and I would argue there isn't to this day), not so much would change in the internal workings of the state.

Also, I doubt the GDL would expand as far as Muscovy did to the East. Whilst the rivers point makes it certain that people will head in that direction as fur trappers and such, I don't think it is a given that it will be controlled by the state. The nobles still had a very large degree of power in GDL, and the concern over who will own new lands is a big one. They certainly aren't going to want colonised land all in the hands of the Grand Duke. IMO, Lithuanian annexation of the Central Russian principalities (Muscovy, Tver, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Suzdal etc) would significantly stunt the settlement of the area. Maybe we could see more permanent Permian settlement (couldn't help myself :p )?
 
Hmmm, I wouldn't 100% agree with you there, poster above. Whilst Lithuania's expansion would make a greater proportion of it Russian, IIRC despite its name, the GDL was a Byelorussian-dominated state. Given that there is no meaningful distinction in this period between Russians and Byelorussians (and I would argue there isn't to this day), not so much would change in the internal workings of the state.

IMHO one of the main problems of Lithuania was several lost (or really heavy wars with Muscovy/Russia). This lead to Lithuania shifting closer and closer to Poland and finally to the Lublin Union. Before this process started Lithuania was actually rather centralized. Concerning Byelorussian they indeed were the majority in GPL and there indeed was little difference between Belorussian, Russians and Ukrainians. But the problem again was constant wars against Russia in which Russian speaking nobility often did change sides from Lithuania to Russia(in OTL to the largest extend it was represented during the war 1500-1503 but there were many instances during 15th-16th centuries). So Russian nobility was seen as untrustworthy in GPL and the Princes successfully encouraged assimilation of the nobility to Poland society.


So I argue that:


1. One of the main reasons of concentrating so much power in the hands of nobility was assimilation of nobility by Polish nobility. Union with Poland in Polish term and untrustworthiness of Russian-speaking nobility lead to this.
2. The main reason of submitting to Poland is several hard wars against Muscovy/Russia. In TTL that is not an issue. In fact in TTL Poland is definitely the weakest one in the union. So either it would be assimilated to the same extend as Lithuanian state was assimilated to Poland in OTL, or it will become an independent state and Lithuania would try to return “rightfully theirs domain”. Either way I don’t see Russian speaking nobility in ATL Lithuania emulating Polish ways.



Also, I doubt the GDL would expand as far as Muscovy did to the East. Whilst the rivers point makes it certain that people will head in that direction as fur trappers and such, I don't think it is a given that it will be controlled by the state. The nobles still had a very large degree of power in GDL, and the concern over who will own new lands is a big one. They certainly aren't going to want colonised land all in the hands of the Grand Duke. IMO, Lithuanian annexation of the Central Russian principalities (Muscovy, Tver, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Suzdal etc) would significantly stunt the settlement of the area. Maybe we could see more permanent Permian settlement (couldn't help myself :p )?
I can’t agree with you on slower settlement of Siberia point. First of all why do you argue that when nobility in power the colonization is slowed down? If we compare the speed of colonization of Sothern steppes in OTL by PLC and by Russia I can’t say that Russian one was a faster one or more successful. Secondly the conquest of Siberia wasn’t a proper colonization. It was a trapper empire in constant seek of new sources of fur. The state role was mainly defending fortlike bases and distributing the fur. Such a model can be controlled by several independent companies (i. e. several independent reach aristocrats). If anything it would go faster in case several aristocrats whould sponsor it. Thirdly furs simply bring to much money in 16th-17th centuries (more than 10% of OTL Russian budget) for the state to not try to monopolize and control it. So I don’t think that slower colonization of Siberia is really possible. The only real possible difference is earlier of later start of it(but by not much) and possibly worse results in the Far East.

While almost anything possible in alternate history the most probable scenario in my opinion is if Lithuania takes Central Russian principalities it would be Russia++.
 
Not much about Russian history seems inevitable. Muscovy could easily have been destroyed early in its existence and a Balkanized Russia continued or restored.

The Mongols contributed greatly to the destruction of their own power.
 
How small can Russia be as a sovereign state?

Everything is in the name.

Timeline:

  • 882 - Prince Oleg moves the capital from Novgorod to Kiev; Kievan Rus' (later name) established
  • 1240 - Kiev is taken by Mongols, Kievan Rus' ceases to exist
  • 1547 - Ivan IV assumes the title of Czar and Grand Duke of all Rus'
  • 1682 - 10-year-old Peter I becomes the Czar ofthe Czardom of Muscovy
  • 1721 - Peter I officially proclames the Empire of Muscovy. The empire opens to European views, science and influence.
  • 1812 - Napoleon's campain into Muscovy ends in a disaster
  • 1914 - WWI starts, Muscovy joins Serbia against Austria-Hungary
  • 1917 - Muscovy collapses, February revolution overthrows the Czar
  • late 1917 - November (old style October) revolution, Bolsheviks take power. Civil war ensues.
  • 1922 - USSR established, it consists initially of 4 republics: Muscovian SFSR, the Transcaucasian SFSR, the Ukrainian SSR and the Belorussian SSR.
  • 1929 - Lateran treaty signed, granting sovereignity of the Holy See over Vatican
  • 1935 - monarchy in Greece restored. Inspired by Lateran treaty, Mount Athos is granted sovereignity and becomes the second smallest sovereign country in the world (very reclusive, keeping diplomatic relations only with Greece).
  • 1941 - Germany invades Soviet Union
  • 1941 - Germany conquers large areas of Ukraine and Belorus. Puppet republics are established, with much local support.
  • 1942 - Stalin dies. Official reason is heart attack, conspiracy theories range from being killed by a German spy, or Zhukov, or Molotov, or Beria, or by Americans. Military junta takes power.
  • 1943 - Soviet forces win the battle of Stalingrad
  • 1945 - capitulation of Germany. Soviet Union asserts its influence in Eastern Europe
  • 1946 - Power struggle in the highest Soviet Union circles. Stalin's crimes are denounced, beginning of the "human socialism" (alas, only in name) movement. Western world often calls the new regime fascist. Cold war starts.
  • 1947 - Religious based upraising in Muscovy and Ukraine. As a result, inspired by Lateran treaty and the Mount Athos, Danilov monastery is recognised as a sovereign territory belonging to the Muscovian Orthodox Church. The new microstate is named Русь, in homage to Kievan Rus', or Russia in English.
 
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