and those could be two separate nations.Novgorod + Muscovy size doesn't seem impossible with enough screwing.
- Survival of Tatar entities in Siberia. That alone would be an enormous part of your request. It's going to be harder tough, with an unified Russia (and that's going to happen sooner or later after Mongol hegemony withdrawal)
Hmmm, I wouldn't 100% agree with you there, poster above. Whilst Lithuania's expansion would make a greater proportion of it Russian, IIRC despite its name, the GDL was a Byelorussian-dominated state. Given that there is no meaningful distinction in this period between Russians and Byelorussians (and I would argue there isn't to this day), not so much would change in the internal workings of the state.
I can’t agree with you on slower settlement of Siberia point. First of all why do you argue that when nobility in power the colonization is slowed down? If we compare the speed of colonization of Sothern steppes in OTL by PLC and by Russia I can’t say that Russian one was a faster one or more successful. Secondly the conquest of Siberia wasn’t a proper colonization. It was a trapper empire in constant seek of new sources of fur. The state role was mainly defending fortlike bases and distributing the fur. Such a model can be controlled by several independent companies (i. e. several independent reach aristocrats). If anything it would go faster in case several aristocrats whould sponsor it. Thirdly furs simply bring to much money in 16th-17th centuries (more than 10% of OTL Russian budget) for the state to not try to monopolize and control it. So I don’t think that slower colonization of Siberia is really possible. The only real possible difference is earlier of later start of it(but by not much) and possibly worse results in the Far East.Also, I doubt the GDL would expand as far as Muscovy did to the East. Whilst the rivers point makes it certain that people will head in that direction as fur trappers and such, I don't think it is a given that it will be controlled by the state. The nobles still had a very large degree of power in GDL, and the concern over who will own new lands is a big one. They certainly aren't going to want colonised land all in the hands of the Grand Duke. IMO, Lithuanian annexation of the Central Russian principalities (Muscovy, Tver, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Suzdal etc) would significantly stunt the settlement of the area. Maybe we could see more permanent Permian settlement (couldn't help myself)?
How small can Russia be as a sovereign state?