Smallest possible sphere of Soviet Europe, post-Barbarossa?

With a PoD no earlier than June 22, 1941 (the first day of Operation Barbarossa), and discounting Nazi victory scenarios, what would be the minimal area of Europe controlled by the Soviets post-war?

As a starting point, a more successful Case Blue could cut off the Caucasus oil fields and severely limit the Soviet's ability to press a counterattack, buying more time for the WAllies to invade from France/Italy.
 
Have Army Group North push a little harder (rather than hesitating for several weeks) and Leningrad falls freeing up forces to strike south at Moscow. Moscow falls but the Soviets fight on grinding down the Wermacht with each mile tread in the Rodina. Losses are much higher ITL due to Einsatzgruppen having increased range, starvation, disease, and increased military casualties. The Allies successfully invade from the West and the Germans find themselves unable to pull their forces out of the quagmire in the East to support defenses in the West. The war ends after a new sun rises over Nuremberg and Berlin. The Soviets survive, barely, and are forced to relinquish their 1939 gains (which they're too weak to hold anyway) freeing the Baltics and Eastern Poland. Eastern Europe falls under the aegis of the Allies and is rebuilt with Marshall aid (the Soviets may also accept aid depending on leadership).
 
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With a PoD no earlier than June 22, 1941 (the first day of Operation Barbarossa), and discounting Nazi victory scenarios, what would be the minimal area of Europe controlled by the Soviets post-war?

As a starting point, a more successful Case Blue could cut off the Caucasus oil fields and severely limit the Soviet's ability to press a counterattack, buying more time for the WAllies to invade from France/Italy.

Theres a lot of variants on this which reduce the ability of the Red Army to advance west 1943-45. My personal view is those scenarios that see the German military heavily attritioned are more realistic or have greater odds of occurring. Thus the German forces in the west in 1944 are no stronger than in 1943, or worse are as weak in 1943 as they were in 1942.
 
With a PoD no earlier than June 22, 1941 (the first day of Operation Barbarossa), and discounting Nazi victory scenarios, what would be the minimal area of Europe controlled by the Soviets post-war?

As a starting point, a more successful Case Blue could cut off the Caucasus oil fields and severely limit the Soviet's ability to press a counterattack, buying more time for the WAllies to invade from France/Italy.

The Soviets may not get Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia was a tricky issue even in the OTL. Most of the rest would be probably more or less the same unless you are proposing a somewhat fantastic (IMO) scenario under which the Western Allies (a) have MUCH more troops and other resources which allows them to advance successfully in more than one direction (France AND Central Europe AND the Balkans) and (b) are not as sensitive to the possible major losses as in OTL.

BTW, by the time the Caucasus oil fields became endangered and those of the Northern Caucasus captured by the Germans, the Soviets already started exploitation of the new fields outside Caucasus region. Cutting off the land access to Baku would not serve a purpose because oil was transported by the sea and then up Volga. This is why Stalingrad was so important. However, with the Soviet ability to build ad hoc railroads, even the Volga route was not too critical. Then, of course, goes an issue of the "success". The greater success of the Case Blue would mean that the German troops are even widely and deeper spread all over the Northern Caucasus, which means that their retreat after defeat at Stalingrad (more or less inevitable due to the idiotic concept of "Case Blue") becomes even more problematic.
 
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