Smallest possible coverage of Islam

Probably the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia, plus a few isolated communities in Saudi, Yemen, Oman, and Egypt
 
Most all of Arabia, although it'll have to co-exist with Christianity and Judaism. Arab nomads could bring it to the deserts north of the Arabian Peninsula as well as to parts of the Sahara. Most said Arabs will assimilate to the local culture, but some could stay Muslims. Traders could bring it to West Africa (Somalia in particular), as well as Indonesia, although I don't think it could spread as much as it did there OTL.

Most of this determines whether Yemen and Oman can be converted to Islam or not.

Also, I'm not sure how recognisable this Islam would be to OTL, since so much of Islam's development was related to its rapid expansion in some form.
 
Let's say if Islam never gets big like in OTL, how far can it spread as a minor religion?

not very. The massive victories it had against the Romans and the Persians are what gave it sticking power. Arabs of the period had a very matter of fact way of looking at religion. If it didn't provide tangible benefits or real world successes, it wasn't uncommon for them to switch to different deities. After Muhammad died, many of the Arab tribes tried to leave Islam and were forced to stay. If the early Muslims are rebuffed by the Persians and the Romans then it will almost guarantee that these tribes will rise again.
 
Arabia would be the main Islamic area, with small communities in the Middle East and Persia, around the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa, and if ITTL's Muslims do really well distant areas like India or Indonesia.

However ITTL's Islam would be far different than the Islam of IOTL. For example the Quran was compiled into its final form in part because of the need to have a standardized Arabic text for the diverse people of the Caliphate. Without that the Quran would be compiled in a different way, possibly leading to suras that were removed IOTL staying in or suras that exist IOTL being lost. In addition the Quran would be in a much different script, since Arabic society wouldn't have evolved into one where writing was very important without the conquests. This would allow for variations in how the Quran was read to exist (with different people pronouncing different words differently for instance).

Another major change would be that Islam would be far more diverse. After Muhammad's death several tribes revolted, attempting to go back to their previous religions or with tribal leaders declaring themselves prophets. Such a trend would no doubt reemerge if the early Muslims were unable to expand. As a result Islam might be used to refer to one specific set of beliefs on the Arabian Peninsula, or perhaps it would be used as an umbrella term for a variety of similar sects that emerged in that area in the 7th and 8th centuries.
 
Let's say if Islam never gets big like in OTL, how far can it spread as a minor religion?

If the PoD is that Mohammed is killed before he makes his first convert, the spread of Islam is one tomb size. I don't think you can get it smaller than that.
 
Top