Smallest Confederacy that will fight?

What do you think is the smallest possible set of rebelling states that won't pack up and surrender as soon as General Lee shows up with the union army at their borders (Obviously, such a confederacy must exclude Virginia)? I'm in the early stages of thinking about a timeline with a short,decisive, 'South Carolina Smackdown' of a civil war. Willing to shift the war about 10 years or so in either direction to get there...
 

maverick

Banned
South Carolina Smackdown? Wouldn't the Nullification Crisis during the Jackson Administration do the trick?
 
The original seven-state Confederacy is about as small as it can get and still be viable.

At a pinch, it might manage without Louisiana.The Trans-Mississippi wasn't all that vital, and Louisiana will probably change its mind and join once war breaks out.

The next likeliest state to not secede is Georgia, which leaves the initial Confederacy split three ways - a little cluster in the middle of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi, with SC and Texas also out, but not contiguous. In that situation, I'd bet on Lincoln to find some excuse to evacuate Sumter (maybe saving face by sending the garrison to reinforce Pickens) to try and avoid any firther secessions. As mthings stand, secession has clearly misfired, and no foreign power will take it the least bit seriously.
 
Too early; I really want Lee, and with enough experience behind him to be considered as a major commander. So 1851 would be the earliest, and sometime around 1870 the latest for the start of hostilities.

Not to mention I don't think that South Carolina _alone_ would put up enough fight to make the thing particularly decisive.
 

m2thet5678

Banned
It would put up a fairly good fight without Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, and probably without full support from Tennessee (which OTL contained quite a few pro-Union dudes anyways, more than most Southern states). The rest of the states were vital, though Texas' contribution was limited.

The South may have been able to prolong the war by enforcing a stricter draft and stricter requisitions of troops from the states. In OTL, Davis had a hard time getting states to contribute any troops, and he couldn't force them to do it because it would be a supposed violation of state's rights.

But having more troops in the fight would just have increased the already massive economic stress on the South, and maybe it would have fallen in 1865 anyways.

The only way for the South to win the war would have been to quickly win battles on Northern land (as in the host of Sharpsburg Victory timelines, but it could also have been done in the Five Forks or Chancellorsville Campaigns) and capture the capital or force international recognition.
 
Okay, so it looks like the biggest problem here is keeping Virginia out of the Confederacy and still having a Civil War. (Fairly easy to keep them in if the South is allowed out, but that both doesn't suit my purposes and requires Batty Behavior from Lincoln.)

I think that the answer is to change the inciting events of the war, which probably means setting it off a few years earlier [since I don't see any good ways to avoid a Republican victory in 1860 and make it later]. So are there any good crises that the core seven would find secession-worthy but that Virginia wouldn't find compelling enough? [I vaguely want to say 'disastrously failed Cuban fillibuster' here...possible?]
 
Not really, Virginia wasn't one of the original 7 states which formed the CSA. Virginia only seceded and joined the CSA after the Confederate attack on Fort Sumter.

You've missed the point. Virginia contributed the largest number of troops and generals of any state to the Confederate cause and basically single-handedly kept the Confederate war effort running from 1861 to the summer of 1862 (at least) as it was the only state with a industial capacity to mass-produce the war material needed to fight. A Confederacy without Virginia is a Confederacy that's going to get crushed in pretty quick order.
 
You've missed the point. Virginia contributed the largest number of troops and generals of any state to the Confederate cause and basically single-handedly kept the Confederate war effort running from 1861 to the summer of 1862 (at least) as it was the only state with a industial capacity to mass-produce the war material needed to fight. A Confederacy without Virginia is a Confederacy that's going to get crushed in pretty quick order.

This is the goal, here. The trick is getting them to not surrender as soon as it becomes clear that Virginia is not with them.
 
To clarify the Cuba idea, say Nicaragua is a bit more stable and so William Walker (or someone very much like him) gathers up a couple hundred Mexican-American war veterans, including a few celebrated Southerners and maybe a governor's son or two, but few or no Virginians, and heads off to Cuba. He's intercepted by the Spanish navy, and they're all sentenced to death as pirates, and President Buchanon refuses to intervene on their behalf.

Given that, is it plausible for the confederate core (minus Virginia) to secede, form the confederacy, and declare or threaten war with Spain, believing that the President holds using force to keep the South illegal, and then, when Buchanon finds nothing at all illegal with entering the existing war on the Spanish side, for Virginia to stay Union?
 
?How much earlier? You may have to rewrite the President list.
Not sure about Peirce, but James Buchanan believed the Southern Secession to be Illegal, but saw nothing in the Constitution that allowed Him to Force the States to Return.
 
?How much earlier? You may have to rewrite the President list.
Not sure about Peirce, but James Buchanan believed the Southern Secession to be Illegal, but saw nothing in the Constitution that allowed Him to Force the States to Return.


Right, I think that I want Buchanan for that bit of ambiguity to let the rebel states fall into the mistaken belief that they can secede without risking war.

[Which raises the question of why they didn't leave two years earlier IOTL. I mean, the writing was on the wall that the Republicans would win the White House, and two years of unmolested independence under Buchanan might be time enough to secure foreign recognition and allies. And they might even get lucky and have the Republicans in Congress impeach and remove Buchanan {and Breckenridge, if he hasn't resigned}, making their government look less legitimate to European eyes...]

Buchanan, on the other hand, (I'm hoping) would find either a successful colonial war by the Rebels or a Spanish victory and possible acquisition of continental US territory both bad enough to justify preemptively joining the Spanish side. And the Republicans still win, and probably with someone more radical than Lincoln, just before the war's done, and we get a long and harsh Reconstruction.
 
They didn't leave 2 years earlier because they still controlled the Democratic Party. That didn't fracture until the election, at which point a lot of southern politicians decided they could no longer get what they wanted inside the current system.
 
If Virginia doesn't secede, there's a good chance North Carolina doesn't either, or splits up as Virginia did IOTL. The immediate shoreline areas and the western regions were not enthusiastic about secession and several regiments for the Union were recruited from those areas. The Governor at the time of secession IOTL admitted that leaving the Union was as much a recognition of the geographical realities of their situation (Virginia's secession) as anything else.
 
What happens if Virginia joins Kentucky in declaring neutrality. In this case 'we're going to stay in the Union, but we're not going to fight, and we're not going to let armies cross us'. If Virginia does, North Carolina might do the same.

Of course, the most probable thing is Lincoln invades Virginia and forces her into the Confederate camp. But let's suppose someone convinces him not to, or Lincoln's not in charge.

So... Now you have a much smaller, weaker Confederacy - but little way for the Union forces to attack.

The Union can attack down the Mississippi, bypassing Kentucky, and they can land troops on South Carolinian beaches, but, especially the latter, would be really tough.
 
You've missed the point. Virginia contributed the largest number of troops and generals of any state to the Confederate cause
Actully North Carolina hold the distinction of most troops contributed, Virgina provided the brains, NC provided the brawn (but NC troops did have the highest desertion rate FYI).
 
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