Smaller embargo on Japan.

How would the pacific theatre in world war two progressed if Australia Britain and the Dutch government in exile did not agree to embargo Japan and instead the ABCD encirclement was instead just an AC encirclement.

Would Japan still have launched it's attack on Pearl harbour or attack the European colonies in South East Asia, and how would it have performed in China.
 
Why doesn't Britain go along with the embargo?

I suppose Japan wouldn't attack, but the Dutch had no desire to become Japanese puppets, which is what Japan was effectively demanding...
 
Even if the British and Aussies didnt get involved (and I cant think of ny reasons why they wouldnt) the USA were still taking a stance against Japanese aggression.
As such I cant see why the Japanese would suddenly decide to ignore the threat that they posed, nor any reason why they would think that any new attacks (especially against territories of US friendly nations) would not draw a stronger response from the US.

So even if things happened as you suggest, the Japanese would have little choice but to attack Pearl harbor exactly as they did.
 
Excuse me if this is ASB I'm not to well versed in the years leading up to WWII.

Would it be possible for Britain to decide to not embargoed Japan, if they were not allied with Germany hopping to not anger Japan into war allowing them and the Dominions to commit more of their resource in India and the rest of the pacific to fighting the now smaller Axis.
 
I think for Britain especially, a lot of the reason for the embargo was simply to please the US, in the hopes that the US would soon join the war in Europe. Britain did not want to anger Japan, if possible, due to the tenuous state of Hong Kong and the British concession in Shanghai, for example. In a scenario where the US is not seen as at all likey to enter the war anytime soon, I could see the UK agreeing to sell oil to Japan, and even agreeing not to aid the Nationalist Chinese, as odious as that may be to modern tastes. The last thing the UK needed was another war, especially a war that might threaten the very resources in the empire that Britain was calling upon for the fight in Europe. As for the Dutch, of course they don't want to be puppets of Japan, but what choice do they have? The DEI is not strong enough to stand on its own, and they know it. If the US and Britain do not back their play, I think they will sell oil to Japan. If it is a choice between selling the oil for money, or having the oil taken by force, it is no choice at all.

Of course, evenything I have just said presupposes a nuetral/isolationist US. Such a US probably wouldn't embargo oil anyway. If they did, however, without seeming at all likely to actually enter the war, I do think Britain and the DEI will still sell Japan oil. That means that Japan doesn't strike south, at least, not yet. Even if they can buy all the oil they need on the world market, they are still running out of the hard currency reserves to pay for it. After that runs out, they may be forced to take what they can grab anyway. It will be enteresting, though, if the Two-Ocean Navy is already starting to come into being. I am not sure even the Japanese militarists will be crazy enough to take that on, although they may not feel like they have a choice.

Honestly, if there is a US only embargo, I think it may delay the war in the Pacific for a long while (maybe a year or two), but it is hard to see it disappear altogether. They NEED oil, they won't be able to pay for it for long (all of the old Japanese export industries that brought in currency reserves as geared towards war work by now), and the European powers are weakened.
 
I think for Britain especially, a lot of the reason for the embargo was simply to please the US, in the hopes that the US would soon join the war in Europe. Britain did not want to anger Japan, if possible, due to the tenuous state of Hong Kong and the British concession in Shanghai, for example. In a scenario where the US is not seen as at all likey to enter the war anytime soon, I could see the UK agreeing to sell oil to Japan, and even agreeing not to aid the Nationalist Chinese, as odious as that may be to modern tastes. The last thing the UK needed was another war, especially a war that might threaten the very resources in the empire that Britain was calling upon for the fight in Europe. As for the Dutch, of course they don't want to be puppets of Japan, but what choice do they have? The DEI is not strong enough to stand on its own, and they know it. If the US and Britain do not back their play, I think they will sell oil to Japan. If it is a choice between selling the oil for money, or having the oil taken by force, it is no choice at all.

Of course, evenything I have just said presupposes a nuetral/isolationist US. Such a US probably wouldn't embargo oil anyway. If they did, however, without seeming at all likely to actually enter the war, I do think Britain and the DEI will still sell Japan oil. That means that Japan doesn't strike south, at least, not yet. Even if they can buy all the oil they need on the world market, they are still running out of the hard currency reserves to pay for it. After that runs out, they may be forced to take what they can grab anyway. It will be enteresting, though, if the Two-Ocean Navy is already starting to come into being. I am not sure even the Japanese militarists will be crazy enough to take that on, although they may not feel like they have a choice.

Honestly, if there is a US only embargo, I think it may delay the war in the Pacific for a long while (maybe a year or two), but it is hard to see it disappear altogether. They NEED oil, they won't be able to pay for it for long (all of the old Japanese export industries that brought in currency reserves as geared towards war work by now), and the European powers are weakened.

Sounds reasonable, in that situation where the pacific war is pushed back by a year or two how would that affect the Sino-Japanese war?
 
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