My understanding is that Texas and Virginia are very different cases. As I understand it there was a relatively legitimate process in Texas which showed very clearly that most white men (and we are talking a large margin) wanted to support the treasonable rebellion.
There are huges doubts about whether this applied to Virginia. In addition Tennessee and North Carolina had large Unionist communities.
I could see the CSA being confined to the first 7 states.
| tend to assume that it would have been defeated more easily. The downside of that is that it is less likely that slavery would have become such a key issue and the evile institution might have survived some further decades.
The Union in OTL were perfectly happy to respect Kentucky's neutrality and only invaded that State after Gerneral Leonidas Polk had already invaded for the Confederacy. Had Polk not invaded Kentucky then its neutrality probably would have been respected and, come the end of the conflict, they would have chosen which side to support. Admittedly the Federal authrities were already at work in Kentucky and their threat of arrest and inprisonment led to John Breckenridge fleeing his native state for the South but the Union had not moved any force into Kentucky until Polk did.
That the Union to a soft approach with Kentucky than they did with the others can be assumed to mean that they would have tried a softer approach with Virginia as well and proud Virginia would not stand for any Federal authorities trying to throw their weight around in that state so the Union will either have to 1)accept Virginia neutrality and work around it to get to the CSA or 2)invade, conquer and dominate Virginia so as to ensure their loyalty. Either way the Union wont have Virginia on their side and if they chose the second they will dirve Virginia away.
If Virginia is invaded by Federal Armies after declaring neutrality and gets driven to side with the South then Kentucky will worry about their own neutrality being violated by the Union and may just side with the South as well.
Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina will follow Virginia's example as Virginia at this point is the leader of the Upper-South. There may be men from those state who will fight for Confederacy or Union while in their States are in neutrality but the majority will side with their States.
The Union will have to chose in 1860 whether they accept neutrality of the Upper-South or try to dominate it and force it to remain in the Union. The Upper-South, though technically neutral, will not simply sit idley by and let the Union to the north and the Confederacy to the South raise large armies at their borders but will likewise raise Armies themselves for protection against these forces, likely to be State Armies more than anything, so if the Union des chose to invade then the Upper-South will be able to resist until such as time as their can strike a deal with the CSA for help.
The Confederacy will also have to chose their stance with the neutral states betwen them and the North. Neutrality of their Upper-Southern neighbors helps them in the long run but they may have delusions of expansion and may try to ensure their cooperation and membership in the Confederacy and may try to invade, which will drive the Upper-South to side with the Union.
Things can thus go either way with the Neutral States between North and South and Texas will be in a similar boat.
The main Generals of the Armies of the Confederacy with only South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and Louisiana as members will likely be P.G.T. Beauregard (Louisiana born but representing the whole CSA), Braxton Bragg(North Caorlinian but representing Louisiana) and James Longstreet (South-Carolinian representing Alabama) with the likes of Richard Taylor, John Bell Hood, Joseph Wheeler and John B. Gordon as potential high ranking Confederate Generals later.
The main Generals of the Upper-South will likely be Robert E. Lee (Virginian representing Virginia), Joseph E. Johnston (Virginian representing Virginian) William J. Hardee (Georgian representing Arkansas), Nathan Bedford Forrest (Tenessean representing Tennessee) and John C. Breckenridge (Kentuckian representing Kentucky or Tennessee). There will likely be the possible later high ranking Generals of Patrick Ronayne Cleburne, Thomas C. Hindman, D.H. Hill, Thomas J. Jackson, JEB Stuart and Wade Hampton amungst others.
Texas may raise an Army itself who commander is most likely to be A.S. Johnston (Kentuckian) or perhap Edmund Kirby Smith (Floridian).
The Union Generals would be pretty much the same as OTL unless George Henry Thomas changes his mind for some reason and decides to side with Virginia.
Small correction on your post(and short comment).The Union in OTL were perfectly happy to respect Kentucky's neutrality and only invaded that State after Gerneral Leonidas Polk had already invaded for the Confederacy. Had Polk not invaded Kentucky then its neutrality probably would have been respected and, come the end of the conflict, they would have chosen which side to support. Admittedly the Federal authrities were already at work in Kentucky and their threat of arrest and inprisonment led to John Breckenridge fleeing his native state for the South but the Union had not moved any force into Kentucky until Polk did.
That the Union to a soft approach with Kentucky than they did with the others can be assumed to mean that they would have tried a softer approach with Virginia as well and proud Virginia would not stand for any Federal authorities trying to throw their weight around in that state so the Union will either have to 1)accept Virginia neutrality and work around it to get to the CSA or 2)invade, conquer and dominate Virginia so as to ensure their loyalty. Either way the Union wont have Virginia on their side and if they chose the second they will dirve Virginia away.
If Virginia is invaded by Federal Armies after declaring neutrality and gets driven to side with the South then Kentucky will worry about their own neutrality being violated by the Union and may just side with the South as well.
Arkansas, Tennessee and North Carolina will follow Virginia's example as Virginia at this point is the leader of the Upper-South. There may be men from those state who will fight for Confederacy or Union while in their States are in neutrality but the majority will side with their States.
The Union will have to chose in 1860 whether they accept neutrality of the Upper-South or try to dominate it and force it to remain in the Union. The Upper-South, though technically neutral, will not simply sit idley by and let the Union to the north and the Confederacy to the South raise large armies at their borders but will likewise raise Armies themselves for protection against these forces, likely to be State Armies more than anything, so if the Union des chose to invade then the Upper-South will be able to resist until such as time as their can strike a deal with the CSA for help.
The Confederacy will also have to chose their stance with the neutral states betwen them and the North. Neutrality of their Upper-Southern neighbors helps them in the long run but they may have delusions of expansion and may try to ensure their cooperation and membership in the Confederacy and may try to invade, which will drive the Upper-South to side with the Union.
Things can thus go either way with the Neutral States between North and South and Texas will be in a similar boat.
The main Generals of the Armies of the Confederacy with only South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Mississippi and Louisiana as members will likely be P.G.T. Beauregard (Louisiana born but representing the whole CSA), Braxton Bragg(North Caorlinian but representing Louisiana) and James Longstreet (South-Carolinian representing Alabama) with the likes of Richard Taylor, John Bell Hood, Joseph Wheeler and John B. Gordon as potential high ranking Confederate Generals later.
The main Generals of the Upper-South will likely be Robert E. Lee (Virginian representing Virginia), Joseph E. Johnston (Virginian representing Virginian) William J. Hardee (Georgian representing Arkansas), Nathan Bedford Forrest (Tenessean representing Tennessee) and John C. Breckenridge (Kentuckian representing Kentucky or Tennessee). There will likely be the possible later high ranking Generals of Patrick Ronayne Cleburne, Thomas C. Hindman, D.H. Hill, Thomas J. Jackson, JEB Stuart and Wade Hampton amungst others.
Texas may raise an Army itself who commander is most likely to be A.S. Johnston (Kentuckian) or perhap Edmund Kirby Smith (Floridian).
The Union Generals would be pretty much the same as OTL unless George Henry Thomas changes his mind for some reason and decides to side with Virginia.
Small correction on your post(and short comment).
Cleburne was a resident of LA. and Wade Hampton was from South Carolina. Also I had thought Longstreet was from NC.
The comment: In 1860 VA,Ky,NC,and TN were 4 of the 7 most populated Slave States MD,MO,and GA being the other three. In fact VA,NC,& TN account for the bulk of the ANV and most of its best Generals. So leave out the Tabacco States and the CSA is not going to stand for long.
The Union in OTL were perfectly happy to respect Kentucky's neutrality and only invaded that State after Gerneral Leonidas Polk had already invaded for the Confederacy.