Whenever I think about where the Germans went wrong in the First World War, it always comes back to their failed Schlieffen Plan in 1914.
Yes, yes I know it almost worked.
But military scholars for the last 100 years all point out that it was a highly risky strategy. Essentially an all or nothing gamble.
It was the Pearl Harbor strategy of the day, a quick knockout blow
that would deliver freedom of movement in other theatres.
Many experts have pointed out that the logistics of the plan were highly
dubious from the beginning and there was no real Plan B.
So lets assume that the Germans decide to leave the old Prussian General's plans to gather dust in drawer somewhere.
The whole point of Germany's entry to the war was to help Austria-Hungary against Russia. There really isn't any need to invade France at all.
As we later saw in OTL the mechanics of warfare in 1914 strongly favor defence over offense.
So instead, what if the Germans sit behind a well entrenched defense on their Western border while they sent the bulk of their troops East.
Remember that in 1914 the German/French border was even shorter than today since it included Alcase-Lorraine.
No German invasion of Belgium means no plausible reason for Britain to enter the war. Even in OTL Britains entry into the war was no inevitability.
From what I have read, the British Cabinet was highly divided on the issue.
British foreign policy for generations had been to avoid Continental Wars.
Some of course, will point to the German High Seas fleet and say THAT made Britains war with Germany inevitable. I say BALONEY. Nothing in history is inevitable. Germany could have offered the Brits some keep of unilateral fleet size limitation declaration along the lines of the Washington Agreement in the 1920s. That would have made it much harder for the Hawks to beat the drums of war in Whitehall.
An interesting point is, assuming British neutrality, what role DOES that leave the German High Seas fleet and their Submarine arm. I don't think WW1 submarines had much range beyond Europe but the Kaisers big ships could have caused plenty of trouble for France in looking after her vast overseas empire. That alone might be sufficient to keep the French neutral rather than go to war in the West by themselves in support of Russia,
but on balance I'd say probably not.
Some might point to the Entente agreement, but as Italy as to later prove, one shouldn't assume too much faith in a piece of paper.
So what do you think?
How does 1914 and beyond play out if there is a small western front on the Alsace/Lorraine frontier?